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The big question of Stage 4 of the 2015 Tour de France isn’t ‘who’s going to win the stage’ but ‘which one of the general classification riders will lose time’, because some of them will.
So far the riders have tested themselves against the clock, the crosswinds, and the Ardennes.
Now comes their toughest test yet, cobbles.
On the tour’s official website, race director Christian Prudhomme stated that, “the seven sectors of pavé and just over 13 kilometres of trembling will force all the leaders and their teammates to be extra cautious.”
The test of cobbles throws up a conundrum for the GC teams: protect their main man, or get a stage win for their cobble specialists.
This problem is relevant for Sky (Chris Froome vs Geraint Thomas and Ian Stannard), Tinkoff-Saxo (Alberto Contador vs Peter Sagan), Katusha (Joquim Rodriguez vs Alexander Kristoff), BMC (Tejay aan Gardaren vs Greg Van Avermaet) and Astana (Vincenzo Nibali vs Lars Boom).
Will the cobble specialists on these teams get their own chance for success, or will they have to work for their teammates, much like Thomas did for Richie Porte last year?
The stage starts in the Belgian city of Seriang, which has hosted the tour on three occasions, while the stage finishes 224 kilometres away in Cambrai in the northern tip of France.
After 101 kilometres, the first cobbled section of 1800 metres lays waiting, the Pont-à-Celles.
The peloton rides another 75km before the next pavé section of d’Artres à Famars. The last 45 kilometres brings six sectors totalling 11.5 kilometres of cobblestones.
At the end of the final cobbled section, the d’Avesnes-les-Aubert à Carnières, there is less than 10 kilometres to the finish line.
In comparison to the comparable stage in last year’s race, there are two fewer kilometres of cobblestones. Having said this, last year’s stage was just over 150 kilometres, close to 70 kilometres less than this time around.
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What more can be said about Fabian Cancellera. A disappointing year to date, but Spartacus has a great ability to be able to hit his mark early in Grand Tours.
This year has been no different. A very good opening day time trial, and a strong finish in third on Stage 2 shows that ‘Spartacus’ has hit the ground running in the first week. As the superb classics rider he is, he has the ability to ride away from his competitors over the cobbles.
However, with a real lack of cobbled sections, and suffering a heavy fall yesterday, he is not the top favourite for today’s stage.
Sagan’s team Tinkoff-Saxo will have the dual initiative to look after both he and Contador. This said, Sagan is used to riding without much help, as he has done in the classics for the last three to four seasons.
After he punctured late on, rode back to the front group, and was narrowly beaten in the sprint on Stage 2, Sagan is in red-hot form to not only win the stage, but to claim the green points jersey.
As we are racing over cobbles it is necessary to include in the two riders who won cobbled monuments this season. John Degonkolb (Paris-Roubaix) and Alexander Kristoff (Tour of Flanders) also happen to be two of the best sprinters in the bunch. With the little amount of cobbles, these two riders could well go head-to-head in the finale. With both riders missing out on the opportunity to sprint on Stage 2, this may allow them the opportunity to gain points back on Sagan in the green jersey competition.
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