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2015 AFL season: Round 15 preview

Roar Guru
7th July, 2015
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3024 Reads

With the dust having now settled on the tragic events surrounding the death of Adelaide Crows coach Phil Walsh for the moment, it’s back to business for not only the Crows, but also the other 17 teams that have had the time to dwell on this unprecedented tragedy.

Port Adelaide versus Collingwood
Round 15 kicks off with the final Thursday night match of the regular season between Port Adelaide and Collingwood.

Despite Port’s poor form this year, a full house will be expected as they seek to resuscitate their finals hopes against the Pies, for whom Dane Swan will play his 250th AFL game, at the Adelaide Oval.

The Power narrowly fell short against the Sydney Swans last Thursday night but you could not question their effort against a side that was missing suspended duo Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett.

However, it was not enough to prevent them crashing to their eighth loss of the season, which has all but ruled them out of the running for a top four place at best.

Meanwhile, the Pies will arrive in Adelaide on the back of two straight losses, but did give top-placed Fremantle and fourth-placed Hawthorn a run for their money before going down by 7 and 12 points respectively.

Those two results proved that the Pies are able to match it with the league’s best, and although the Power have struggled this season, the Pies’ credentials will still be put to the test at the Oval this Thursday night.

While Nathan Buckley’s men go along their merry way, Ken Hinkley’s troops need to start winning if they are to either salvage their season or make an unlikely late charge for the finals.

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Prediction: Collingwood by 14 points.

Richmond versus Carlton
It wasn’t that long ago that traditional rivals Richmond and Carlton opened the 2015 season in front of just under 83,500 fans at the MCG on April 2.

Ninety-nine nights later, the Tigers and Blues will resume hostilities in their first Friday night clash since 2006, with both clubs having treaded on significantly different paths since then.

The Tigers have overcome a slow start to the season to sit in sixth position on the ladder with eight wins, while Carlton’s poor season to date has seen them sink to 16th on the AFL ladder.

However, the Blues’ form has lifted since John Barker took over from the sacked Mick Malthouse in late-May, with their past month producing narrow losses to the Adelaide Crows and Western Bulldogs, as well as a narrow win over Port Adelaide and a huge win over the Gold Coast Suns.

Richmond, on the other hand, are coming off an unconvincing nine-point win over the Greater Western Sydney Giants which was a stark contrast to impressive wins over Fremantle and the Sydney Swans on the road in Rounds 10 and 13, respectively.

Last week we saw a Friday night thriller between Collingwood and Hawthorn, here’s hoping that despite the ladder positions of both the Tigers and Blues, there will be more of the same this Friday night.

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Prediction: Richmond by 24 points.

Essendon versus Melbourne
Essendon have copped it from everywhere following their embarrassing 110-point loss to St Kilda, which has placed coach James Hird under intense scrutiny and forced the players to have a really good look at themselves in the mirror.

The triple-figure defeat was the first for the Bombers since it lost to the Saints by 108 points in the final match of the 2008 home-and-away season, in a result which saw the then Ross Lyon-coached Saints finish in the top four.

To make things worse, captain Jobe Watson will miss the rest of the season after succumbing to a shoulder injury, souring what had been a forgettable 200th game in which he was kept well quiet by the Saints.

It will be interesting to see if the Bombers can bounce back against bogey side Melbourne at the MCG this Saturday afternoon. The Dees have enjoyed a strong record against the Bombers in recent years, winning four out of their last five meetings with the only blot being a 148-point humiliation in 2013.

The Dees themselves are also coming off a poor loss to the West Coast Eagles in Darwin but unlike the Bombers, who didn’t give a yelp against the Saints, Paul Roos’ men did hang in with the second-placed Eagles for three quarters before falling away.

With both sides unlikely to play finals this season, it’s fair to say that pride will be on the line when the Bombers and Dees face off for the only time in a season for the tenth consecutive year.

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Prediction: Melbourne by 22 points.

Western Bulldogs versus Gold Coast Suns
Thank god for Gary Ablett Jr – that’s exactly what could be said by the Gold Coast Suns as they notched just their second win of what has been a very disappointing season for Rodney Eade’s men to date.

The two-time Brownlow Medallist’s return coincided with the Suns thrashing the Kangaroos by 55 points at home last week, a result which saw them move off the bottom of the ladder on percentage.

However, it may have been too late for the Suns to finally start realising their potential, with their finals hopes all but shot following a horror first half of the season plagued by injuries, suspensions and disciplinary issues.

This weekend they will venture up to Cairns to take on the Western Bulldogs who have surprised many with their resurgence under rookie coach Luke Beveridge this season.

The Bulldogs are undefeated since their Round 11 bye, having posted wins over the Brisbane Lions, St Kilda and Carlton for their best winning streak since 2011.

That has seen them move back into the eight after they fell out of it before their bye, and a win over the Gold Coast Suns in a sold-out home game in Cairns will further boost their chances of returning to the finals for the first time since 2010.

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Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.

North Melbourne versus Geelong Cats
When the Geelong Cats take to the field this Saturday night, it will have been 20 days since they last played, having enjoyed their bye in Round 13 and then having their match against the Adelaide Crows cancelled due to Phil Walsh’s death.

Their previous outing before that fortnight off saw the club go down to Melbourne by 24 points, in another worrying sign that their period of sustained success could be coming to an end sooner rather than later.

The Roos will still be smarting after copping a 55-point hiding on the Gold Coast, which has continued yet another season of inconsistency for last year’s preliminary finalists who currently sit 11th on the ladder with a percentage of 92.2.

On a positive note, they will have their regular coach Brad Scott back this week after he was sidelined for five weeks due to back surgery. He has come back at the worst possible time, with the club’s finals chances quickly fading away.

Given the seasons both the Roos and Cats have endured so far this season, it’s fair to say that it’s crunch time for both sides, with a loss for either set to put them further off the finals pace.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 10 points.

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West Coast Eagles versus Adelaide Crows
It’s set to be more than an emotional match when the West Coast Eagles and Adelaide Crows face off at Domain Stadium in the other match on Saturday night.

For the Crows, running out onto an AFL field will be a massive challenge given the events that surrounded the sudden death of their coach Phil Walsh, and the club has made it clear that if any player isn’t ready to play, then they won’t have to.

Midfield coach Scott Camporeale has been installed as their caretaker coach and he has also made it clear that he will continue to stick to the path to success that was originally laid out by Walsh.

But it won’t come easy against the second-placed West Coast Eagles who, other than their Western Derby loss to Fremantle in Round 3, haven’t lost at home all season.

The Eagles continued their impressive season with a 54-point win over Melbourne in the Top End last week, keeping them on track to return to the finals for the first time since 2012.

On a mental perspective, it’s fair to say that both the Eagles and Crows will be overcome by emotion given how respected Phil Walsh was by both clubs. It will be interesting in particular to see how the Crows hold up, given they would have had a few days to grieve over the loss of their coach.

That being said, the Eagles should take the chocolates in this one.

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Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 30 points.

GWS Giants versus St Kilda
Having dropped to ninth on the ladder, and with their percentage just narrowly in the black, the Giants will look to get their finals hopes back on track when they welcome an in-form St Kilda to Spotless Stadium on Sunday.

After copping a 56-point hiding from North Melbourne the week after losing their three most important players – Phil Davis, Joel Patfull and Shane Mumford – to serious injuries, the Giants proved that they could still perform, narrowly going down to Richmond by nine points last Saturday.

Repeating that intensity against the Tigers will be key to their chances against St Kilda, whom they defeated by nine points in Round 1.

The Saints are coming off easily their best win under coach Alan Richardson, putting an under-siege Essendon to the sword by a massive 110 points. It was their fifth victory for the season, surpassing the four they enjoyed last season.

To say the least, however, they will face tougher opposition than they did last week in the form of the Giants, who were on track to reach the finals for the first time this year but now face a challenge to even do that, given their long injury toll.

Sunday’s trip to Spotless Stadium will be the first for the Saints, but their only one to Sydney for the year, and although both sides are outside of the eight, a bumper crowd will be expected for the clash of two of the up-and-coming sides in the AFL.

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Prediction: GWS Giants by eight points.

Hawthorn versus Fremantle
Sunday’s showdown between two-time reigning premiers Hawthorn and ladder leaders Fremantle in Launceston takes the mantle as the match of the round, and for very good reason.

The Dockers enter this match not only on top of the ladder, but also with just one loss for the season, against Richmond at home in Round 10, while the Hawks come in having won their last five in a row after a slow start to the season.

However, it’s the Hawks who will enter this match as the favourites, on the basis of their dominant head-to-head against the Dockers (and, to a lesser extent, sides coached by Ross Lyon) and their strong recent record in Launceston, where they haven’t lost since Round 5, 2012.

By contrast, the Dockers’ record in the Apple Isle is dismal, having never won a match in the state (except for a controversial draw against St Kilda in 2006 which was later overturned in their favour) with their most recent trip there resulting in a 42-point loss to the Hawks in early 2013.

In addition, the Dockers have also been challenged in their last few matches since losing to the Tigers in Round 10, narrowly scraping past the Gold Coast Suns and Collingwood before breaking free of the Brisbane Lions in the final quarter at home last week.

Thus, they cannot afford another slow start otherwise it will be punished by the Hawks, who will be going for six wins in a row as they continue on their bid for a premiership three-peat.

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Prediction: Hawthorn by 25 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Sydney Swans
To finish the round, the Brisbane Lions will need to produce their best football if they are to break a poor record against the Sydney Swans which stretches beyond the past decade.

The performance of Justin Leppitsch’s men against ladder-leading Fremantle in Perth last Sunday belied their poor season to date which has seen them win just two matches and occupy the bottom of the ladder.

The Lions threatened what would have been the upset of the season for the first three quarters before capitulating to the more experienced Dockers in the final quarter. Thus, their efforts against the ladder leaders could not be questioned.

But as good as they were for three quarters last week, they will need a full effort if they are to cause a boilover against the Swans, whose twin towers Franklin and Tippett both return from suspension.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 60 points.

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