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Australia will regain the Ashes. There you go, I’ve committed that particular thought to the screen, despite it going against every patriotic bone in my body. But – one caveat – they won’t win the series.
If a prediction is what’s required, and that is the whole point with the contest starting today, then I’m leaning towards a 2-2 draw.
FIRST ASHES TEST – FULL SCOREBOARD
A touch optimistic maybe, but I’ve seen enough from Alastair Cook’s side to suggest they can do more than merely provide cannon fodder.
Of the past three Ashes on these shores, both 2005 and 2009 saw Australia enter as favourites and we all know what followed. The respective form guides of the two protagonists will again see the visitors begin at the shorter price, and rightly so, but the gap doesn’t appear as wide as it was at the SCG 18 or so months ago.
Yet as much as my optimism nullifies any lingering pessimism that would have every right to be floating around, my fingers will be discreetly crossed for a few reasons: Gary Ballance, Moeen Ali and, to a lesser extent, Mark Wood.
Each have shown an aptitude for the Test match game in their respectively brief careers, but if the Australians aren’t targeting the trio as potential routes for exploitation then they aren’t doing their jobs.
While Wood has proven to be a breath of fresh air in the national side and with the useful ability to give decent players a bit of a hurry up, if he can get through a quintet of matches in seven weeks then I, for one, will be astonished.
That, in turn, puts pressure on the supporting cast, and while there are a couple of decent candidates in the shape of Liam Plunkett and Chris Jordan, I know who I would want to be facing if I was David Warner, Steve Smith et al. If Wood has to be used in a stock role, rather than a strike role, his effectiveness will be diminished. Same goes for Mitchell Johnson.
With Ballance, his first blip as an international batsman appeared against New Zealand. While he is more than good enough to overcome such troughs in form, Mitchell Starc and his cohorts will really fancy their chances of getting stuck into the middle order once the opening pair have been separated.
As for Moeen, if he plays ahead of Adil Rashid, who some are predicting for a Test debut, he is likely to – no, will – be in the sights of the Australian batsmen. Better spinners than the Worcestershire all-rounder have suffered at their hands, and when all is said and done he is still a batsman who bowls and not a specialist spinner.
The rest of the side, barring injury, won’t change and if consistency of performance is to be achieved then the same in selection is a necessity.
On the opposite side of the fence, Nathan Lyon and Shane Watson/Mitchell Marsh are the individuals England should look to put under the cosh.
A struggling spinner, as was shown to be the case when England were in Australia last time out, alters the role the seamers are expected to play and if nothing else, how Essex attacked Lyon last week should have been noted.
Lyon’s comment afterwards of it being different when there are no consequences was spot on, but England can’t afford to let him bowl as that is precisely what Johnson, Starc and Josh Hazlewood want.
With regards to Watson and Marsh, both could balance the Australian XI up nicely but, and this is with the bowling side of things in mind, the former’s fitness is suspect at best and the latter hasn’t proved to be overly incisive in his Test career to date.
The bowling will decide the series, as is generally the natural order of things, and if either team can be marginalised in this area their task will be made that much more difficult.
So there you have it, the side who can upset the opposition attack to the greatest degree will win the Ashes. Or at least share the spoils.