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Somewhere between 25 and 30 minutes into State of Origin 3 on Wednesday night, which should come at around 10pm on the recent kick-off time trends, each team will begin to rotate their front row forwards.
Queensland will bring in Josh Papalii and Jacob Lillyman to replace starting props Matt Scott and Nate Myles. Meanwhile, NSW will bring in David Klemmer and Trent Merrin to replace Aaron Woods and James Tamou.
This could get ugly for Queensland very quickly.
More 2015 State of Origin:
» State of Origin news
» State of Origin fixtures
» State of Origin teams
» State of Origin 2015: Game 3 preview
» Why NSW will win Game 3
» Why the Maroons will win Game 3
Before Origin 2 I questioned the make-up of the NSW bench, and while NSW did win the game the limited minutes for Boyd Cordner and Josh Jackson suggests that those two players remain underutilised. However, for Origin 3 it is Queensland who may have made the critical error with their bench.
Lillyman is a fine player who delivers a steady 115 metres and 26 tackles week in, week out for the Warriors. However, he is no one’s idea of a game changer and has recorded only four tackle breaks and a solitary offload all season. His game is built on consistency, work rate and avoiding errors rather than power and speed.
In Games 1 and 2 Lillyman played 25 and 26 minutes respectively and recorded remarkably similar stats: seven runs for 49 metres and 19 tackles in Game 1 and seven runs for 53 metres and 16 tackles in Game 2. Solid stats for a 17th man and number four prop but there is a serious question mark about his capacity to increase his involvement with Papalii replacing the firebrand Josh McGuire.
Papalii has typically struggled when asked to play in the middle unit, whether for Queensland or the Raiders. In five games this year playing the position at club level he averaged under 100 metres per game and generally struggled to make much impact.
The strength of Papalii’s running game is his footwork and ability to hit a hole on the edge of the ruck along with a deft passing game for a big man. When playing on the right edge his considerable size – he weighs in at something approaching 110 kilograms – is a mismatch for leaner second rowers and halves in the defensive line.
However, in the middle of the field he is average size and he simply doesn’t have the raw speed and power to make a difference in a high intensity game.
But the reality is that Papalii is actually a remarkably measured player on the field. Want proof? Go back and watch some of the Raiders’ games and just try to find two different facial expressions from Papalii. Despite the reputation Papalii doesn’t play angry and he doesn’t target opposition players in the way that some Queensland supporters might be hoping.
While Papalii is well known for his powerful tackling he simply isn’t the sort of belligerent that he is being sold as. Much of his reputation as an enforcer is built on Paul Gallen’s petulant response to a Papalii tackle in the 2012 semi-final between the Raiders and the Sharks.
Apparently confused that other players are allowed to tackle him too, Gallen lashed out in the press conference after the game and accused Papalii of hitting him with a “dog shot” and thus a hard man rep was born.
Meanwhile, with the emergence of David Klemmer, along with Laurie Daley finally realising that Trent Merrin thrives on more minutes, NSW have perhaps the strongest pair of bench props that either team has had in several years.
At this stage Klemmer needs little introduction. The Canterbury logo may be a proud and stoic bulldog but Klemmer is no purebred. Rather he’s a junkyard cur snapping at the end of his leash and yes, he does bite. Klemmer runs angry, hits hard and shows no respect. After a strong first game in Sydney, Klemmer slipped the leash altogether in Melbourne and has carried that form back to club football as the poor saps who attempted to tackle him at Belmore last Monday found out.
After a lacklustre Game 1 Trent Merrin finally got the opportunity with Gallen’s injury in the first half of Game 2 to play more minutes, and he thrived with the extra time on the paddock. While Merrin is nominally a lock at club level he is an exemplar of the new breed of power locks that play like a third front rower. Merrin’s speed and his trademark hit and spin footwork, plus his penchant for offloading, are lethal to tired defenders in the middle of the field.
Over time Merrin will most likely replace Blues skipper Gallen as a 60-minute lock, but for the time being he is thriving on simply getting more minutes. After playing only 20 minutes at the tail end of game as both teams tightened up, Merrin finally got a proper prop rotation in Game 2 and lit the game up to the tune of three tackle breaks and three offloads from his nine carries.
For several years Queensland have based their game plan on simply playing to a draw in the forwards and relying on their collection of all-timers in the backline to get them home. For the most part this has been successful, however two things have swung against them ahead of Wednesday night’s game.
For one that all-time backline will be diminished without Billy Slater and with Cooper Cronk inevitably underdone after little football in the last month. But more importantly those talented backs may simply be taken out of the game by a NSW forward pack that looks stronger across the pack but far, far stronger on the bench.
Lillyman and Papalii are fine players in their own right but they are likely to be overmatched. Where Lillyman is steady and Papalii is measured, Klemmer is off the hook and Merrin is dazzling. On paper it’s not even close.
So watch carefully either side of half-time, because that is where NSW can ride that advantage to win the game.
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