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If the Wallabies are to stand a chance at this World Cup, risks need to be taken. Whether we like it or not, the inclusion of Matt Giteau and the consideration of Kane Douglas changes a lot.
Much has been written about the long-term effects of selecting overseas based players. Predictably and understandably, an outcry has followed the suggestion that Kane Douglas is being considered for the 2015 campaign.
Yet Michael Cheika is too savvy to have left the door ajar for Douglas unless he was confident a deal could be done with Leinster. Perhaps one that involves the Reds using the sizeable financial relief from James Horwill’s departure to pay out the Irish province.
Dave McDuling has also left Queensland and it is inconceivable that concrete plans do not already exist to replenish locking stocks at Ballymore.
Should Douglas find a way home from Dublin in good health and sign with the Reds, he must be picked for Australia. He has the physicality of Sitaleki Timani but with work ethic. The presence of Will Skelton but with nous. The go forward of a youthful Horwill.
Can Kane Douglas do it on a cold, wet English day in October? Yes, he can.
No doubt Giteau was among the first called by Cheika once the ARU’s policy was changed. Sure he hasn’t played Tests since the disaster against Samoa in 2011. But that was a player out of position, down on confidence and on a collision course with his coach.
Anyone who has watched him support Jonny Wilkinson and then lesser fly-halves at Toulon can see he is up to it and predict what Cheika has in mind. A steady hand at crunch time.
So why the focus on these players?
It is the same reason that Benn Robinson and Ben Alexander have been ruthlessly cast aside for Greg Holmes and Scott Sio.
Alexander has been penalised off the park virtually since debut. Holmes anchored a pack which stole the second most tight heads in Super Rugby. We all know what the definition of insanity is and with 20 minutes to go against the English at Twickenham, Holmes would be my choice too.
Cheika knows that without hard-nosed set pieces, a pack capable of playing in tight and tactical smarts the Wallabies won’t get out of their pool.
If October proves to be a particularly wet month in London the odds of Australia bringing home Bill will lengthen dramatically regardless.
Sure there was 1991 and 1999. There was also John Eales in place of Rob Simmons. Tim Horan instead of Matt Toomua. Not to mention the best Wallaby front rows we have seen.
So in 2015, Cheika must take risks. Albeit calculated ones. Starting with Douglas, including Giteau, adding Holmes and excluding at least one of Dean Mumm and Dave Dennis too.
There will certainly be a ‘horses for courses’ debate on selections. However, barring injuries and extreme losses of form during the Rugby Championship my matchday 23 against England on October 3 (and potentially South Africa on October 17) would be:
1. James Slipper (Sio at 70 minutes)
2. Stephen Moore (Tatafu Polota-Nau at 70)
3. Sekope Kepu (Holmes at 60)
4. Douglas (Skelton at 55)
5. Rob Simmons
6. Scott Fardy (Michael Hooper at 55)
7. David Pocock
8. Wycliff Palu (Ben McCalman at 55)
9. Will Genia (Nick Phipps at 70 minutes)
10. Quade Cooper
12. Matt Toomua (Giteau at 60)
13. Tevita Kuridrani
11. Henry Speight (Rob Horne at 70)
14. Adam Ashley-Cooper
15. Israel Folau
16. Polata-Nau
17. Sio
18. Holmes
19. Skelton
20. Hooper
21. McCalman
22. Phipps
23. Horne
Straight off the bat there needs to be a 6-2 forwards and backs split. Risky but it should be maintained even for games against the likes of Wales and New Zealand (if Australia gets that far). There is plenty of versatility with Toomua, Giteau, Ashley-Cooper and Horne to cover all eventualities.
The front row excites me more than any Wallaby front row since 1999. Moore is the glue that was needed last year at set piece. It is a front row with more than 200 Tests between it. Holmes has also played 130-odd games at Super Rugby level. I don’t feel sick to the stomach at the thought of him coming on.
Simmons is a brilliant lineout technician but whoever plays next to him needs go forward and mongrel. Douglas has both in spades and if fit and in form after the Rugby Championship he is my starter. I still believe that Skelton lacks maturity and smarts but the thought of him entering the fray with 25 minutes to go is irresistible.
Predictably the back row was the most difficult selection. Against England (or South Africa), Fardy, Pocock and Palu provide the best balance at least to begin the game. Moore, Slipper, Douglas and Palu are all ball carriers and Fardy’s ‘dark arts’ will be needed at the breakdown. He was certainly missed in 2014.
Higginbotham may get game time at six particularly against Wales, but when it comes to rolling the sleeves up and discipline he is saddled with past transgressions and perceptions. Hooper entering the fray with Skelton adds a real injection of running and linking, particularly through the midfield and it may just catch tired English legs out.
Palu has been picked on potential. It was very surprising Ita Vaea was not selected in the 40-man squad and that likely leaves Palu as the man we need to fire. If he struggles and Vaea remains omitted, then a time may come where Higgers needs to be picked at eight. In any case, whoever replaces Palu, if he starts, must provide a second lineout option if Skelton and Hooper are both brought on.
The combination of Genia and Cooper needs time in the Championship but may just be on the verge of flourishing again. With a good coach, a run of Test matches and a strong pack in front of them these guys will worry any side. The English, Boks and Kiwis just don’t see the fuss about Foley and neither do I. He’s solid but he won’t win a World Cup. Phipps has all the hallmarks of a nine coming on with 10 to go to tackle, tackle and tackle.
Toomua with all his physicality is the perfect foil to start a game with Cooper. Giteau together with the game management he brings is the perfect man to end the game with him. I am sure that Cheika has identified the potential of finishing a game with Genia, Cooper and Giteau at 9, 10 and 12. Whether he is prepared to demote Foley from a starting position is a different matter.
The prospect of Kuridrani running at 13 with Cooper, Giteau, Speight and Folau is exciting. Even more exciting is the same players being joined by Skelton and Hooper with 25 minutes to play. No midfield in world rugby will relish the prospect of defending that combination of ball runners and off-loaders.
There are plenty of risks in this selection. Just as there are risks for Australian Rugby in encouraging the likes of Giteau and now Douglas home for the Wallabies.
Yet the risks of not being bold far outweigh those of taking action. Hopefully Cheika has that figured out.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.