Welcome to the Thursday Night Forecast for Round 15, the last time we’ll see a match in this slot for the season.
Last week I was on Friday night duties for Hawthorn versus Collingwood, where I wrote:
“I’m predicting a high possession, high scoring game, with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge and Isaac Smith all nudging 30 touches, and a few players on either side kicking multiple goals.
I can see the Hawks finishing at around 110-120 points, and the Pies 85-90, with Hawthorn to prevail by four to six goals.”
Not a bad effort I reckon, the Hawks winning 101-91. Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Lewis and Sam Mitchell had 30-plus (Hodge 29, Smith 25, Swan 19) and there were six multiple goal-kickers on the ground.
So, onto tonight’s big game.
The death knell appears to have sounded for Port’s finals chances, the Power now three games out of the eight, but more importantly not playing good enough football to make any sort of sustained run.
Last week’s 10-point loss to Sydney at the SCG looks OK on paper, but it was a severely weakened Swans line-up coming off a loss, missing their two key forwards through suspension, and then losing two more players to injury during the course of the game.
In fact, Port haven’t won in more than a month. Each of their wins this year, and even some of their better losses, have come with a sense of ‘they’re back’, or that the corner has been turned. It’s yet to be the case, so there’s no reason to think it will be now.
Collingwood had their doubters earlier in the year, despite compiling enough wins to be well entrenched in the top six. None of the sides the Pies have beaten are currently in the top eight, so it was fair enough to raise questions.
Have Nathan Buckley’s men gained more admirers in two consecutive defeats than they did in eight wins? They’ve had their chances in both matches. Against Fremantle they let through goals at crucial stages. Against Hawthorn they couldn’t kick them.
Certainly the stocks of the coach himself have risen in the minds of most observers. He comes across as a man completely in control of the direction of his football club.
The Pies are getting even contributions across the ground, from a no-frills backline that contains an element of class, a hard-working, hard-running midfield that both attacks and defends, and a forward line that’s threatening enough to have kicked the third most goals of any side this year.
On the opposite side of the equation, Port are struggling for run and rhythm, and have done all year. Robbie Gray is the only midfielder to rise above it. The forward-line is dysfunctional, with Chad Wingard the only bright light.
I’m predicting a comfortable Collingwood victory. They’re too good to lose three in a row, and Port aren’t going well enough to make it happen.
That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?
A little over 12 months ago, Collingwood demolished Port Adelaide on a sunny Saturday afternoon at the MCG in the first of many, many…
The Pies are on FIRE at the 'G!
They've reviewed everything else this year and not THAT?
Geelong coach Chris Scott has hit out at the AFL Tribunal's decision to clear Charlie Cameron for his dangerous tackle on Jake Lever, saying…
Collingwood premiership defender Nathan Murphy has been forced into a premature and immediate AFL retirement through concussion to prioritise a "full and healthy life"…
