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It’s the rematch we’ve all been waiting for on this week’s Friday Night Football.
OK so maybe not everyone, but I’m certainly looking forward to it.
Carlton look a completely different side than the one regularly turning in 10-goal Friday night floggings every opportunity they had, while you’d also argue the Tigers are something of a different beast than Round 1.
It’s got potential, this one.
But before we get into it, I have an announcement: I got one right! Albeit it was a Thursday Night Forecast.
Prediction: Sydney def. Port Adelaide by 24 points.
Actual: Sydney def. Port Adelaide by 10 points.
Yeah, go the Swannies! At three-quarter time the match was playing out precisely to script, with the Power down the four goals I expected them to be.
In the end, Port Adelaide won the inside 50 count (as predicted), but managed to be slightly less efficient and less accurate than their opponent, which lost them the game. It was 2.3 to 4.5 in the final quarter, so Port Adelaide definitely had a chance to pinch it.
Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Richmond Tigers versus Carlton Blues
Friday, 10 July
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (AEST)
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Victoria
Is it fair to say Carlton’s season unravelled after quarter time in Round 1? Dale Thomas wrecked his shoulder, and after building to a 27-point lead the Blues lost to Richmond by 54 points over the rest of the game. We know the story since well.
The Blues have had four Friday night dates before this one, losing by more than 10 goals on each occasion (69, 75, 77, 60, to be precise). But those were in the Mick Malthouse era. Carlton look a different proposition under interim coach John Barker.
That’s assistant coach under Mick Malthouse John Barker, by the way. Where was this attacking flair before now? Since Barker took the reigns, Carlton are 2-3, with two losses by less than two goals (and one victory in the close range) and a percentage of 87, which is a marked improvement on 1-7 with one close loss and a percentage of 64.9.
Since Round 9, Carlton have ranked 10th in offensive efficiency rating (OER), and 13th in defensive efficiency (DER), a marked improvement from 16th and 18th respectively over the first eight rounds. Unfortunately for the Blues, Richmond are also better: their DER has jumped from seventh (+8.2) to sixth (+14.0), without a major dip in OER (going from ninth at -1.1 to 11th at -2.9).
The Tigers’ lack of offensive punch should be ringing alarm bells at Punt Road if Richmond are serious about a finals campaign this season. A full year OER of -1.8, ranked 12th, would make Richmond the least potent side still in the frame for a finals berth, and would make it very difficult for the Tigers to win more than one match. Solid defence gets you into the eight, strong attack gets you to a flag.
Tonight represents an excellent chance for Richmond to get things going. The Tigers cracked the tonne against Carlton in Round 1, and Brisbane in Round 3, but have proven small samples are unreliable since then.
Counting against them is what I’m going to dub Richmond Theory. What is Richmond Theory?
Richmond v Fremantle: expected to lose, Richmond win.
Richmond v West Coast: expected to win, Richmond lose.
Richmond v Sydney: expected to lose, Richmond win.
Richmond v GWS: expected to win, Richmond lose (up until three-quarter time, anyway).
So it’s with some trepidation that I’m picking the Tigers to win this one by 30 points.
It would be Carlton’s best Friday night performance of the year, and surely that’s a victory of sorts for Blues fans.