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The final day in the Pyrenees will likely be the hardest of the 2015 Tour de France thus far. Here’s my preview of the stage.
Just under 200 kilometres and four categorised climbs meet the riders on their journey from Lannemezan to the mountain top finish at the ski resort of Plateau De Beille.
With the riders tomorrow heading for the Alps, today will see the general classification riders go very deep into the hurt locker, looking to take time on their rivals.
On the races official website, race director Christian Prudhomme stated that today’s stage will be pivotal. “Whatever the situation in the leading positions of the general classification, the rivals of the yellow jersey will really have a good opportunity to challenge him. Frightful, the climb to the Plateau de Beille is made for pure climbers. Laurent Fignon used to say that the less prepared struggle on the third day in the mountains.”
From the start of today’s stage, the climbs get progressively higher and harder.
First up on the agenda is the category two climb of the Col de Portet-d’Aspet, which averages out at 9.7 per cent. It is placed within the first 60 kilometres of the race.
Due to this, there is the potential that the morning breakaway may not get formed until after this point; therefore, expect a fast opening 90 minutes to this stage.
Less than 40 kilometres after the Col de Portet-d’-Aspet, is the first category Col de la Core, which is a 14.1 kilometre climb that averages out at 5.7 per cent.
The penultimate climb of the Port de Lars tops out with 50 kilometres to go, meaning we really should not see any attacks by the main favourites on this climb. The climb is classified as a first category, which is 12.9 kilometres at an average gradient of 6 per cent.
Then a long descent of over 30 kilometres before the riders get to tackling the summit finish at the top of Plateau De Beille.
Jens Voigt in an interview with Cycling News referred to the Plateau De Beille as a very difficult final test for the riders in the Pyrennes.
“Plateau de Beille is so steep in the first three kilometres that the race blows to a million pieces straight away. After that it flattens out a bit but gets steep again at the finish.
“It’s a super hard climb and the race can be won and lost here.”
As far as numbers go this climb rivals, and possibly surpasses, that of Alp D’Huez, averaging out at 7.9 percent over 15 kilometres. After a long stage with a lot of climbing, I expect that many of the top riders may be caught out at the end of the day.
Due to the fact that this is the last day in the Pyrenees, expect the teams of the general classification riders to work hard for their riders to fight for overall honours on the stage. Though, depending on how the race unfolds on the previous two days though, we may see today be a day for the break, but l doubt it.
Having said this, we will still see an important day in the fight for the King of the Mountains jersey.
Favourites
You either have it or you don’t. Today is the day where if you want a chance to win the Tour, or finish on the podium, you need to bring out the best of your form. If you don’t, you will be losing massive chunks of time.
Over the past two days Team Sky have been superb for Froome. On Stage 10, they went hard on the final climb of the Saint-Martin and ripped the race apart, whereas yesterday on Stage 11, they rode defensively to support Froome on a stage that eventuated for the breakaway.
Will they be able to keep up this continual pressure again today?
At the end of the stage yesterday, they were only left with one rider to protect Froome in the final couple of kilometres. Sky will be hoping that they do not crack tomorrow, as it may give his competitors a chance to come back in the overall classification.
Having said this, I expect Sky to play their role well today, and give Froome a launch pad to follow any moves from the key general classification favourites.
Contador by his own admission had a horrendous day on Stage 10, dropping off the pace early and losing a large chunk of time. If he wants to prove that he still a can do the Giro-Tour double, today’s stage will be the last chance for him to really prove himself in terms of claiming overall victory.
I don’t expect him to be able to follow Froome. He hasn’t looked particularly brilliant all Tour, and the way he has been sounding in his interviews with the media, there is definitely a downbeat mood at Tinkoff-Saxo, despite the stage win to Rafal Majka yesterday.
BMC, the weakest of the general classification teams, have found it hard to protect Van Garderen so far over the past two stages in the Pyrenees. Again, this is the major weakness of any Grand Tour hope riding for that team (note to one off-contract Richie Porte).
Van Garderen has looked fairly solid, and probably performed where I thought he would. Having said this, due to other favourites faultering, a podium is a realistic possibility. Today is another important stage for him to stake a claim for that accolade.
After Stage 10, Nairo Quintana looks like the best chance of a rider threatening the lead of Team Sky over the next week and a half. However to do this, one may feel his team needs to be smarter than they have been.
On the stage in question, Stage 10, Movistar tried to create a fast pace up the first part of the final climb. That seems logical, if Movistar had the ability to rip the race apart, which evidently, they do not. This allowed Sky to get a free ride, then when the time came, use three or four of their own riders to blow the race to pieces.
If Quintana wants a chance to win this Tour, he and his team need to make their attacks count. Trying to attack the strongest team in the mountains, on the first day in the mountains with only one difficult climb on the agenda is not the smartest decision Movistar has ever made.
Other riders that could feature in today’s proceedings include Pierre Roland, Robert Gesink, Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Mattias Frank and Richie Porte.
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