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2015 Tour de France: Stage 13 preview

Peter Sagan is one of the leading contenders for a stage win today (Image: La Gazzetta dello Sport)
Roar Guru
16th July, 2015
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Stage 13 of this year’s tour starts from the town of Muret, the first time the tour will have been through the town. It will kick off the first transitional stage between the Pyrenees and the Alps mountain ranges.

On today’s menu for the peloton is just under 200 kilometres of punchy parcours for the riders to reach the eventual stage finish in the town of Rodez.

These unpredictable, rolling, lumpy stretches of terrain could be a very good day for the breakaway, or if it all comes back together a punchy sprinter may reign supreme.

Robert Millar, who won three stages at the Tour in the 1980s described today’s stage as a very hard day for the peloton.

“Perfect stage for a breakaway and until one gets away no-one will be happy, though with the last 60 kilometres being of the up and down, in and out, melted tar variety it’s hard to say if it’s better to be in the front or hiding at the back,” he said.

The stage profile is fairly flat until the intermediate sprint point, 92 kilometres into the stage in the town of Laboutarie. After that though, we come across the three mountain climbs which are classified on today’s stage, two which are Category 4 climbs, and one which is Category 3. Furthermore, there are two or three other rises into the stage’s profile which are not classified.

All of these main lumps and bumps come within 70 kilometres of racing. It would take one very strong sprinter to get over these climbs. I feel we will not see a bunch kick today, but it is still a possibility.

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Tinkoff Saxo have had a mixed tour to say the least. With Alberto Contador losing time up the climb to Saint-Martin and Peter Sagan finishing on the podium in three sprints so far, their results sheet looks fairly poor, even though Rafal Majka won Stage 11.

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Sagan is the favourite if the stage comes back together for a sprint, but with the abandon of Daniele Bennati a few stages back, his main right hand man, Sagan will once again have to surf wheels and gain no real support from his team. Ultimately, he has to play a very dangerous waiting game.

Ultimately, if he rode for a team squarely towards his performances, a breakaway would not succeed today. He needs to rely on teams like Giant-Alpecin for John Degenkolb, and on Katusha for an underperforming Alexander Kristoff, to bring back any escapees.

Personally, I think today is suited for a stage win for this main reason. The battle of the underperforming sprinters may see their teams all looking at each other to do the work.

Another potential way that today could won is by an attack on the last unclassified climb, which after looking at Strava, is 8.8 kilometres at an average gradient of 2.5 per cent.

However, the final three kilometres is at over four per cent. It may not be steep, but there are a lot of climbs in the final half of the race.

I therefore have to look at attacking riders like Thomas Voeckler and Sylvain Chavanel as potential attackers in the finale. Also aiding the late attack specialists is the fact that the last 10 kilometres after the long rise is downhill until the final two kilometres.

There are so many different ways for today’s stage to be won, and many riders could feature in today’s proceedings. Personally, I hope that we see a sprint, as I would love for Sagan to win a stage. I think the stage may be too tough for Mark Cavendish and André Greipel, but we shall see.

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Other riders to watch on today’s stage include Michael Matthews, Zdenek Stybar, Arnaud Demare, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Bryan Coquard, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Julien Simon.

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