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Davis Cup: Australia vs Kazakhstan preview and predictions

Thanasi Kokkinakis is out of the summer of tennis. (AFP PHOTO / MIGUEL MEDINA)
Roar Guru
17th July, 2015
1

For the first time since 2006, when they defeated Belarus at home, Australia has a chance to progress to the semi-finals of a Davis Cup.

It has been a long time between drinks for the second most successful nation in the competition. After defeating the Czech Republic 3-2, with a win in the fourth rubber, they now face Kazakhstan who defeated Italy in the opening round.

On paper it should be a match Australia wins. With the win in the first round, they had home ground advantage, and chose to play on grass in Darwin.

Not only will that help the Aussies, it also hinders the Kazakh team, which plays predominantly on clay.

They also have just one player inside the top 100, with Mikhail Kukushkin the world number 63.

The other players play predominantly on the Challenger circuit.

Aleksandr Nedovyesov, ranked 115, made the final at the Bergamo Challenger with Andrey Golubev playing in the French Open and the Australian Open main draw.

In comparison, Australia has six players in the top 100, with three in the team.

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Australia can’t underestimate this team though, or they will be defeated.

In previous years, against Belgium (2010 and 2007) and Sweden (2004), the green and gold underestimated their opponents and lost.

Wally Masur and Lleyton Hewitt will make sure that doesn’t happen though. Hewitt has been picked along with Sam Groth, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Nick Kyrgios, for the tie.

Here is the schedule, and a prediction for the tie.

Friday

Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS) vs Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ)

Head to Head: Never Met
Record in singles at Davis Cup: Kokkinakis 1-1 Kukushkin 15-9

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This is a huge match for Kazakhstan. If they are any chance of winning the tie then Kukushkin needs to win his two matches and hope they win another one over the tie.

Kokkinakis though, with limited Davis Cup experience, will be a tough match for Kukushkin. Despite not much success at Wimbledon, he lost to Leonardo Mayer in the first round, he can play well on grass.

He also has incredible fighting spirit after defeating Lukas Rosol in the opening tie from two sets to love down.

This matchup is also perfect for Kokkinakis. He won’t be beaten at the baseline by his opponent, and can get into many points during the match. In the end, because of the surface, it will come down to serving between the two.

I favour Kokkinakis to prevail in one of the closest matches of the tie.

Prediction: Kokkinakis in 5 sets

Nick Kyrgios vs Aleksandr Nedovyesov
Head to Head: Never Met
Record in singles at Davis Cup: Kyrgios 3-2 Nedovyesov 1-1

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Underestimate Nedovyesov and he will make you pay. In the first round, against Italy, he steered the tie towards the Kazakh’s with an impressive win against Fabio Fognini in five sets.

Unfortunately this match is played on grass, his worst surface, which puts the rubber in the favour of Nick Kyrgios.

Taking away his antics, which gained all the attention at Wimbledon, we all know how good this kid is on grass.

At Wimbledon he has made the quarters (2014), and the fourth round (2015). He also won the Nottingham Challenger last year on the surface.

In comparison, Nedovyesov has won just four times on grass, with all of them in qualifying for the Wimbledon Championships. He did qualify this year but lost to Viktor Troicki in four sets.

This clash reminds me of the matchup between Kyrgios and Diego Schwartzman at Wimbledon a few weeks ago. Kyrgios smashed the Argentinian with his power and serve, and I see that happening against Nedovyesov.

The Kazakh player is great on the baseline and has a solid serve, unfortunately he doesn’t have the power to match it with Kyrgios.

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The Aussie should win in straight sets.

Prediction: Kyrgios 3-0

Sam Groth Sam Groth will team up with Lleyton Hewitt in the doubles. (AFP PHOTO/Saeed KHAN)

Saturday

Lleyton Hewitt/Sam Groth vs Aleksandr Nedovyesov/Andrey Golubev

Head to Head: Never Met
Records in doubles at Davis Cup: Hewitt 15-5 Groth 0-1 (0-1 together) Nedovyesov 1-1 Golubev 6-3 (1-1 together)

This is a fascinating doubles matchup. Last time Hewitt and Groth played Davis Cup, they lost in five sets to the Czech Republic. Leading two sets to one, they lost the last two sets, to be defeated and keep the tie alive.

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They had the chance to wrap the tie up but failed to do it against an inexperienced combination.

Now they face Golubev and Nedovyesov, who defeated Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka in doubles in 2014. They also lost in four sets to Simone Bolelli and Fabio Fognini – the Australian Open doubles champions – earlier this year.

The Kazakhstan duo will be tough to beat, despite the match being on grass.

I’m fascinated to see how the Australian duo handle the pressure of the match. They struggled last time but circumstances are different now. Groth is a much better big match player now and will handle the pressure better.

That could be vital with his serving being one of the keys of the match.

Australia can win the match but it will be close. This has four or five sets written all over it.

Prediction: Kazakhstan 3-2

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Sunday

Nick Kyrgios vs Mikhail Kukushkin

Head to Head: 1-0 Kyrgios – 2015 Nice – 7-6 6-2

Just 9 weeks ago, these two met, at the ATP event in Nice. With a sore elbow, which saw him retire in the next match, Kyrgios would defeat his Kazakh rival in straight sets.

This rubber could be the deciding tie for Australia, if they win both singles matches, and lose the doubles.

This is perfect with Kyrgios the best player on grass in the event.

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He didn’t have any trouble on clay, so he won’t have too many problems on grass. His serve, and power, will trouble Kukushkin.

Australia should wrap up the tie in this rubber, if they haven’t already.

Prediction: Kyrgios 3-0

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Alexandr Nedovyesov

Head to Head: Never Met
Preview: If this match is played, I predict it won’t, then Australia would be the favourites to progress if it is a live rubber.

As mentioned earlier, Nedovyesov hasn’t won many matches on grass, and would struggle against Kokkinakis. The Aussie should be able to win the battle on the baseline and serves better than his Kazakh opponent.

I don’t think this match will occur, with one team winning the tie already, but if it does then Kokkinakis should win to seal Australia’s spot in the semis.

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Prediction: Kokkinakis 3-1

Overall:
This tie should be won by Australia. They have a glorious chance to progress to the semis and will have questions thrown at them by the media if they don’t progress.

Kazakhstan though have nothing to lose and will do everything to progress to the semis for the first time in their history.

This is also a historic weekend for the Northern Territory. It is the first time a Davis Cup tie has been held in the territory.

It should be a memorable one for Australia as well.

They will defeat Kazakhstan to progress to the semis.

Australia 4-1.

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