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Oh yes, it’s back, baby! The Big Questions proved to be incredibly successful last season as the perfect lead-in to TRC Tests, and promoted brilliant discussion to boot.
Whether I wanted to or not, I was always going to be handed the honour of putting the forum together each week.
Starting today, each Friday during the Rugby Championship I’ll be joined by Roar regular Diggercane once again, and making his Big Questions debut, none other than Harry Jones. As was the case in 2014, we’ll each pose and answer the pressing questions of the week, as well as offering up our tips for the round.
So let’s get straight into it…
Brett McKay asks: Will we see some tweaks in the refereeing style of the southern hemisphere whistleblowers during TRC, or is there a real risk that Rugby World Cup games will still be played with distinct southern and northern styles?
If we do, I think the tweaks will be really subtle. It’ll be worth watching the speed of the ball becoming available at the back of the breakdown during the TRC, and particularly if Joubert, Peyper, Pollock, or Jackson are in charge.
Laurie Fisher told me in an ESPN Scrum interview that in the north, the ball is often coming out maybe a second later, giving defences that extra little bit of time to reset. I suspect if game under these four games start feeling a little ‘slower’, then it might be a case of them getting their ‘northern’ timing ready for the Rugby World Cup.
Harry: Mandates to harmonise will be issued. The southern hemisphere referees will for the most part try to follow those edicts. However, it won’t have the result desired because in the last three seasons the northern hemisphere referees have diverged to a lower ruck height, ball-killing, maul-indulging, offside-boot-swinging-in-the-ruck, scrumhalf-cramping, unfit ref, glacial-phase style. And Northern refs are reactionary. We are fooled by the Ellis Park anomalies.
When Nigel Owens comes south, he knows he’s on holiday so he speeds up the breakdown policing to sub-three seconds, but up north it’s still four to five seconds. The World Cup will be fraught with referee controversy, sadly.
I try to avoid ref-bashing. The key is for captains and loose forwards and pilfering hookers and centres to adapt to the ref styles.
Digger: Tweaking? No, I don’t think so. While it would be nice to think efforts will be made to promote consistency across the board, controversy is bound to strike and many debates will rage.
As Harry has alluded to, ignore the refs and observe how the players adapt to the interpretations of the day. A necessary skill come the knock-out phases in a few months.
Diggercane asks: With many suggesting the 2015 Rugby Championship is nothing more than a glorified warm up for the Rugby World Cup in England, what do we expect the priorities will be for each participating nation to glean from the abbreviated 2015 tournament?
In terms of New Zealand and South Africa, I believe the coaches know who they want. Their focus for this tournament will be on deciding a handful of spots and the overall composition of their 31. I feel the opportunities will be provided to the untested individuals on the back of limited gameplans with the focus being on how players cope under pressure, both individually and within the team setup along with an emphasis on doing the basics well.
For the Wallabies, Michael Cheika will have the same idea but unlike his counterparts he has not had the same luxury of time in terms of planning and implementing his footprint on this side. So he will be looking to hit the ground running and will be seeking cohesive performances from his playing group and to continue building on each performance throughout the championship.
I think Argentina may smell blood in the water here and seek to knock off a few milestones in this tournament, which will build belief and momentum heading towards the World Cup. While their set piece remains an obvious talking point, I hope to see more of the attacking flair we had glimpses of from last season.
Harry: It’s poker without real money. Michael Cheika is the best poker player of the four, but Steve Hansen has 12 or 13 aces in every hand. Heyneke Meyer plays UFC-style poker; while Daniel Hourcade rarely gets dealt all his cards.
Argentina’s goals might be:
1. Stay healthy
2. Identify a backup 10
3. Beat Australia again
Australia: Cheika has the least pressure. He’s been given a blank cheque and new rules; he’s a fashionista Ned Kelly bad boy with a sheepish grin.
His priorities:
1. Beat the Pumas.
2. See his leaders lead.
3. Mongrelise the pack.
4. Decide 6-7-8 and 9-10 combinations.
5. Assess Matt Giteau.
6. Decide who can complete a defending lineout throw and catch at 78:00 in a quarter-final.
New Zealand: Hansen needs final depth charts at hooker, scrumhalf, flyhalf, inside centre, and fullback. He may test the fantastic Waisake Naholo?
Priorities:
1. Don’t lose Aaron Smith.
2. Cut down turnovers.
3. Shape the back three.
4. Get Kieran Read and Richie McCaw back up to speed.
5. Preserve aura; losses must have alibis.
6. Give Argentina no hope for the pool game.
South Africa: The South African rugby establishment doesn’t think of the Rugby Championship as a real ‘event’, it’s just Tests against old rivals and a measuring device against New Zealand.
Priorities:
1. No more stars hurt.
2. Choose reserve locks.
3. Improve in wet weather.
4. Get his centres fit.
Brett: I think Digger and Harry have nailed it between them. The priority for all four coaches will be to unearth their preferred XV for the Rugby World Cup, but there will be variations in how much experimentation is required to get there.
Hanson, I think, already knows his; he’s just trying a few new players here and there to either challenge or confirm his thinking. Daniel Hourcade might tinker a little bit too, but I reckon he’s got his nailed down pretty well too. He’ll be using TRC to build momentum.
I can’t help but wonder if Meyer is just wanting to be seen to be experimenting now, when all along he knows that he’s heading into the Rugby World Cup with Jean de Villiers, Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez, Victor Matfield, and company. 2015 is so 2007 – or so he hopes.
And Cheika, well I reckon he’ll run out different XVs over the next four games in the hope that something clicks. The side he’s picked for this weekend isn’t what I’d have named, but it’s a start, and the experimentation will begin, so that he can then make a call on whether to bring in a George Smith, or a James O’Connor – or dare I say, a Kane Douglas.
Harry Jones asks: Which team – by necessity or design – will be the most adventurous in their 9-10 selections for the Rugby Championship?
Cheika has a straightforward ‘light-tackling journeyman versus risky creator learning to tackle’ choice, Hourcade and Hansen need to settle on back-ups, but it’s Meyer who seems to think musical chairs is the right way to prepare flyhalves for the World Cup.
Miss touch or the poles and you might be at the end of the line again. Three games; three Bok pivots?
Digger: My money would be on Australia, based on this being Cheika’s first squad of his own choosing and a bit of unknown as to how he wants to steer this ship.
While many would promote Will Genia and Quade Cooper as starters, Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley will get their opportunities while Giteau also lurks in the background. We may see some interesting selections here for the Wallabies over the coming weeks, and even more so if performances are not up to scratch.
Brett: I think it will actually be Meyer, and like I mentioned above, it’d all be a ruse so that he can ultimately land on Steyn and Du Preez and say, ‘See? They’re still the best option!’
So we’ll get Ruan Pienaar and Handre Pollard this week, and we’ll get Pienaar and Patrick Lambie, and maybe Cobus Reinach and Lambie against Argentina, and then suddenly Steyn will come back onto the bench, and then Du Preez will come back just as they’re about to board the plane for England.
Cheika has nailed his colours to combinations, so if Genia and Cooper doesn’t work, then he’ll roll on to Phipps and Foley. That’s all he’s got.
So then, the tips for TRC Round 1
Brett: #NZLvARG – The All Blacks will have left the rust behind in Apia last week, and I think they’ll be back on the monotonous, relentless treadmill of dominance in Christchurch tonight. Richie McCaw and Dan Carter’s last game on home turf, too? New Zealand by 16.
#AUSvRSA – The ‘Boks will be aided by having played last weekend, but I’m picking the Wallabies to start the Cheika era in earnest with a hard-fought win. Australia by 10.
Digger: #NZLvARG – All Blacks because… well, I’m a Kiwi! New Zealand by 22.
#AUSvRSA – With the additional time in camp to prepare and a motivational coach in Cheika, I am picking the Wallabies will be itching to start a new era and I think they can get over the line against an undermanned Bokke. Australia by 12.
Harry: #NZLvARG – All Blacks’ heart-beating, vein-pumping, sense-enhanced, relentlessly-focused, #ForceOfBlack hammerhead team will use the frosty Christchurch pitch to send a message to the Pumas. New Zealand by 24.
#AUSvRSA – Obvious. Home team healthy in fortress with mastermind coach in control. South Africa by 8.