Today is the last of the transitional stages before we hit the Alps. It will also be the last chance for the sprinters to get a stage victory before the finish of the Tour on the Champs-Elysees.
Most sprint stages in the first week of the Tour were fairly flat affairs, with the only real difficulties being any crosswinds which occurred. However on today’s menu, there are four classified climbs which may mean that pure sprinters such as Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will be struggling to stay in the front group.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the riders on the rollers before today’s stage, as the first 20 kilometres are uphill, featuring a Category 3 climb of the Cote de Badaroux. The climb is only 4.6 kilometres long at an average gradient of 5.1 percent.
Having said this, the road continues to rise for 10 kilometres after the climb finishes.
After the 20 kilometre mark, the road descends until 70 kilometres into the stage where two fourth category climbs come in quick succession.
The Col de Bez (2.6 kilometres at 4.4 percent) and the Col de la Croix de Bauzon (1.6 kilometres at 6.3 percent) is followed by a fast descent into the town of Aubenas, where the sprinters will come out to play for the intermediate sprint.
Greipel will again by hoping for maximum points over Peter Sagan, as there is the potential he may not stay in the peloton for a final sprint.
The main reason for such scepticism as to whether both Greipel and Cavendish can win today, is the climb of the Col de l’Escrinet, which is a second category climb situated 60 kilometres from the finish.
This will be the decisive point on today’s stage.
Can the sprinters get over this climb, or at least stay in close contact, so they can descend back into the peloton?
The climb in question is an 8 kilometre test with an average gradient of just under 6 percent.
In 2009, Mark Cavendish won a similar stage to this, when the peloton summated the opposite side of the climb to what the riders will be doing today.
Whether he can win today is up to both Tinkoff Saxo, Giant-Alpecin and Katusha, with the three main favourites. If they set an extremely hard tempo up the climb, they may crack the pure sprinters, and not allow them to return on the descent.
Favourites
Peter Sagan is the new Greg Van Avermaet. He just loves a second place. Most punters would have thought when they saw Sagan on the wheel, perfectly positioned behind Van Avermaet on Stage 13, that he would kick past him in the final metres and take the win. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t.
The nearly man of the sport just needs a big win to set him free and give him the confidence he needs to continue winning.
So far this Tour, Sagan has seemingly had the pace to win, but has been a little bit too far back to gain top stop. Even on Stage 13, he had to jump across a small five metre gap to get to Van Avermaet’s wheel. I feel if he was well tucked up under the Belgium riders wheel, he would have had the endurance to jump over the top of him in the end.
Ultimately for Sagan, he needs to pick the right wheel, because the form is there.
Giant-Alpecin came into this tour looking for the yellow jersey with Tom Dumoulin, and potential stage wins and green jersey for John Degenkolb. So far, no such luck for them, but today is another day where Giant could potentially give Degenkolb a chance.
A key issue though for Giant is their impatience. on Stage 13, they were the only team in the first half of the race to keep the breakaway under control. In the final they had nobody to support Degenkolb.
Committing too early on a stage like this will be the derailment of another potential stage win. They will need to balance the fine line between keeping the break under control, and then having enough numbers over the final climb for the lead-out – a very hard task.
Katusha have had great success so far with stage wins and a good tally of points for Joaquim Rodrgiuez in the King of the Mountains competiton. Their one major down-point though has been Alexander Kristoff, who has been completely anonymous.
After absolutely blitzing the first half of the year, his Tour has been nothing short of horrible, with him not finishing on the podium thus far this tour. This is one of only two more chances for him to pull off a result, or his second half of the season could be written off. Hard to say for a man who has won a quarter of the time he has pulled on his race jersey this season.
Other riders that could feature on today’s stage include Michael Matthews, Arnaud Demare, Bryan Coquard, Greg Can Avermaet, Tony Gallopin (if Greipel does not get over the final climb), Julien Simon and Edvald Boasson Hagen.
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