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Where has it started going wrong for Sydney?
Firstly, let’s just say that all the talk of doom and gloom for the Swans is relative. There are 14 other clubs that would love to swap positions with their 11-4 record and fourth spot on the ladder.
But we demand more from some sides than others. Clubs earn the burden of expectation, and must answer to it. When premiership sides go out and add players the calibre of Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett to their list, as the Swans did after their 2012 flag, that scrutiny is going to be fierce.
So, as much as wins and losses are often called the only currency worth anything in football, we know that it isn’t and can’t be all about that. We always need to be looking below the surface. It’s been a long while since they were impressive.
Hawthorn opened Sydney up and laid them bare on Saturday night, much as they did on grand final day last year. They didn’t so much reopen old wounds as cut them deeper until they hit bone, and kept on going. It was a bloody mess.
Much talk centres on the age of the Swans’ defence, and veterans Ted Richards, Rhys Shaw and Heath Grundy. Others point to the fact that Sydney are still ranked in the top four for points against, so the ageing soldiers can hardly be blamed.
Sydney are certainly old hands at getting the job done against lesser sides while playing poorly. Ever the professionals in that situation, they can usually scrap out a win.
But several chinks have been exposed across the season this year, with the Swans unable to stop opposition sides from getting a run on.
Against the Hawks on the weekend, they let through six goals in the first term, and seven in each of the last two.
When giving up a 33-point lead to lose to the Tigers a month ago, they allowed Richmond to slam on seven third-quarter goals.
Sydney defeated the Hawks in the first grand final rematch earlier this year, but not before allowing a 32-point lead to become a 12-point deficit, conceding 9 of 11 goals through the middle of the match.
Going back to Round 5, the Swans conceded six goals in a row to the Bulldogs, a 25 minute lapse that ultimately cost them the game.
The week before, they allowed Fremantle nine of the first 10 goals, including another six goals in a row. Even in Round 1 against Essendon, it was seven goals to one at one stage, in favour of the Dons.
The Bombers aside, there is a common theme to these runs of goals that Sydney have conceded, almost all of which have cost them games. Have a look at the teams involved. They are all against sides above and just below the Swans on the ladder.
In fact, if we look at their record against fellow top six sides this year, it reads as one win and four losses, with a percentage of 73.8. This is about more than just one game.
This is about a midfield that drops away alarmingly. This is about a defence that can’t handle the heat. This is about a team that is less than the sum of its parts.
Dan Hannebery. Josh Kennedy. Luke Parker. Kieren Jack. Jarrad McVeigh. No team in the league has a better top five mids. Tom Mitchell and Jake Lloyd are having career years as young midfielders.
No team comprising this level of talent should be allowing their opposition to dictate terms to such an extent as described above.
Lewis Jetta has become less than what he was destined to be. He needs to find more strings to his bow other than just bombing the ball inside fifty from 70m out.
Ben McGlynn and Craig Bird have been absent as John Longmire looks to give younger players a go in their stead. McGlynn in particular has been such an important cog in the past, so his decline has been significant, injury-related or not.
Down back, Grundy, Shaw and Dane Rampe always seem to be good for a horrendous turnover or two a game, which must cause supporters to tear their hair out.
The Swans aren’t kicking enough goals either, given that they have two of the highest profile key forwards in the game. They’re currently rated seventh for points for, but only 37 points clear of the team ranked 12th. It’s the very definition of average.
The lack of a genuine small forward has been glaring. Tippett hasn’t been winning enough football, but has actually been performing okay as a forward-ruck. His problem is not necessarily his output if judged solely on his role. It’s his output relative to his pay-packet and profile that generates the headlines.
Sam Reid can never hope to play consistent football as the bits-and-pieces player he has been forced into.
John Longmire is a premiership coach, and as such, his place in the competition’s history is assured. But has he done enough with the talent at his disposal? Not for mine, and certainly not if he isn’t holding aloft the cup on grand final day this year.
A flag in 2012, a beaten grand finalist last year, and a couple of also-ran finishes in his time at the helm. It’s looking likely that the latter course will take place again this season.
For all the talk of the dour Swans, they played exhilarating, open football on the way to the 2012 flag. They averaged 104 points a game that season. This dropped to 102 in 2013, 96.6 in 2014, and currently sits at 86.2 this year.
‘Horse’ needs to loosen the reins, and get his team back playing in a more attacking style. I guess the same could be said of several coaches in the competition.
The Swans players have had sound defensive principles drilled into them for years. They’re not just going to drop away down back and become Brisbane or Carlton if allowed to play with a little more freedom.
The season is not over for Sydney. It’s almost certain they’ll still finish in the top four. But it’s hard to imagine it won’t end badly if they have to meet Hawthorn again in a final. Something needs to change, and right quick.
John Longmire has proven his credentials to many. Let’s see what he’s got.