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2015 Tour de France: Stage 17 preview

Nairo Quintana will be among the riders needing to start making up time on Chris Froome in Stage 15 of the Tour de France. (Image Joseld-89, Wikimedia Commons)
Roar Guru
21st July, 2015
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As we saw on Stage 10, the stage after the rest day can often coincide with many riders struggling to get back into racing. For the general classification favourites, they will be hoping they have no such problems today, as we have reached the Alps.

The next four days will undoubtedly decide who will win the race, and each day is so important to determine the final outcome.

Some of the riders may recognise today’s stage if they rode the Criterium du Dauphine as their warm-up race for the tour. This stage is a complete replica of Stage 5, where Romain Bardet descended like a stone to win.

Today’s stage is probably the easiest of the four remaining mountain efforts, which is saying something, considering the riders go above 2000 metres in altitude today. The riders travel 161 kilometres from Digne-les-Bains to the finishing climb of Pra-Loup.

On the stage is five classified climbs, with none of them being hors category.

The first is the Col de Leques, which comes after 40 kilometres. Again, the breakaway will take a while to form, as this will be the first test for the race today. The climb itself is fairly easy, being a Category 3 climb which averages out at 5.3 per cent over six kilometres.

After a quick descent and some false flat, the riders will tackle another Category 3 climb; the Col de Toutes de Aures. This is far easier than the previous climb, averaging just over three per cent for five kilometres.

The next climb is a Category 2, with the Col de la Colle-Saint-Michel peaking just after the halfway mark of the stage. It averages at 5.2 per cent for over 10 kilometres.

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The major difficulty of the day though is the Col d’Allos, which tops out at 2250 metres above sea level. The riders who have experience at altitude should shine here. Once again though, the average gradient of the climb is only 5.5 per cent, but this time over 14 kilometres.

For mine, the most decisive point on today’s stage is the descent of the Col d’Allos, which we saw in the Criterium Du Dauphine was extremely technical. Look for riders like Vincenzo Nibali and Alberto Contador attacking down this descent to gain back time.

Greg LeMond spoke to Cycling News about today’s stage and mentioned the descent into the final climb.

“They say that the north side of the Allos is one of the most dangerous descents in France.”

In the Criterium Du Dauphine, Romain Bardet took 85 seconds on the front group on the descent. This gave him enough of a buffer before starting on the final climb, which is the Pra Loup, which averages out at 6.5 per cent for six kilometres.

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Today’s stage could be a breakaway, depending on the composition of the break, and also the way Team Sky control the race.

As we saw on Stage 12, the break had some very good riders, including Rafal Majka and Dan Martin, who pushed the break up the Tourmalet. On that occasion, Sky saw the quality of the break, and refused to chase, riding tempo up the preceding climbs, then pushing the pace up the Tourmalet.

We could see Sky do the same thing today. As they did at the Criterium Du Dauphine, they will want to have numbers of the descent of the Col d’Allos to protect Chris Froome if he has problems. This will help any breakaway, or attackers from the general classification group stay away.

Furthermore, with three hard days to come after the stage today, and with one less rider after the loss of Peter Kennaugh, I would not be surprised to see the breakaway stay away today.

We need to also take into account that today’s gradients are not very high, with the final climb of the Pra Loup averaging the highest of all the climbs today at a measly six per cent. However, the altitude of over 2000 metres may play a factor.

This will help Nairo Quintana, as he has been training at altitude back in his homeland of Colombia.

For mine, there will be attacks from the general classification riders on the descent, but the stage should be set for the breakaway.

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Let’s not forget the large amount of climbs on today’s stage, the King of the Mountains jersey will really start to heat up. I expect Joaquim Rodriguez to be in the break again.

Other riders that deserve a mention include Majka, Simon and Adam Yates, Andrew Talansky, Dan Martin, Pierre Roland, Serge Pauwels, Jakob Fuglsang, Thibaut Pinot, Louis Meintjes and Rigoberto Uran.

Anything else that I have missed? Feel free to comment below.

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