Continuing our weekly look back at every round of the NRL, we take a look at Round 19 – a round in which some of the battle lines for the run to the finals were drawn.
Theme of the Week – Separation
With the annual State of Origin lull in our rearview mirror, the focus is now firmly placed back on club football and the race for a finals berth. With that in mind Round 19 saw some clear separation opening up as the teams sort themselves into tiers as the season winds down.
Ignoring for a moment the no hopers in the bottom three, separation is occurring on two levels with the truly elite teams separating away from the other contenders by as much as those contenders are separating from the pretenders.
Despite solid wins for the Storm, Dogs and Rabbitohs, it is clear that the Broncos, Roosters and Cowboys occupy a very different plane to the rest of the league.
While the quality of opposition for the Broncos, and to a lesser extent the Cowboys, wasn’t quite as high as it was for the Roosters over the weekend, the quality of their performances was everything you would hope for from an elite team. Both teams were largely untroubled in reaching their 14th and 13th wins respectively.
However it was the Roosters who really made a statement in annihilating the Warriors. The Warriors entered the game fresh off what they must have thought was their own statement game against the Storm the previous week. Even without Shaun Kenny-Dowall, the Roosters pummelled the Warriors in a game that honestly wasn’t even as close as the 24-0 score line would suggest.
The Roosters’ one through 17 is among the finest we’ve seen since the salary cap-cheating Storm teams. However it’s now or never for the team as the club loses half of its spine with the departures of James Maloney and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
The separation of the top three from the rest is reflected in the current premiership betting odds with the Roosters, Broncos and Cowboys at $3.75, $4 and $4.25 respectively to win the premiership, with the next best team out at $8.
All this is not to say that the premiership, or even the grand final, will necessarily be restricted to those three teams. The NRL has shown time and again the capacity to throw up September surprises with last year’s beaten grand finalists the Bulldogs coming from seventh on the ladder to make the big one.
Any of the teams from four to seven could certainly make the grand final.
For the Rabbitohs, the premiership partnership of Luke Keary and Adam Reynolds is finally beginning to gel again after a much interrupted season. The Storm still have Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk along with substantial contributors such as Jesse Bromwich and Tohu Harris.
The Bulldogs have the most intimidating forward pack in the competition with the ability to roll a metric ton down the middle third of the field. The Warriors, well, you know what there’s no point trying to do an analysis of that erratic crew.
Finally the Sharks and Dragons in eighth and ninth and currently separated by one win are both clinging on to the hope of making the finals.
Meanwhile, teams like the Panthers, Raiders and Eels will now need to concern themselves with the bottom of the ladder as much as the top of it after they each took brutal losses in their own way over the weekend. The Panthers were crushed in Melbourne, the Raiders were pipped at home for the fourth time this year and the Eels have now been entirely swallowed by the Chris Sandow tire fire.
None of those teams is mathematically eliminated but it will require a fairly substantial form turnaround for any of them to play finals football.
Of the rest only the Eagles are a realistic chance of turning things around but if they make it they will have earned it given their draw features six games against the current top eight including three against the current top four.
Player of the Week – Mick Fanning
Because when you punch a shark you win all the awards – even if you don’t play rugby league.
Elimination Watch – Wests Tigers
Over the last decade or so the cut off for playing finals footy has generally been 28 competition points, or 12 wins, with for and against occasionally marking the point of difference between two or more teams.
As such this weekend will see the Tigers be the first team of the year face season execution. The Tigers currently have five wins with seven games remaining meaning they would need to win every game to get to the requisite 12 wins. So a loss this weekend will see them mathematically eliminated.
So it’s a good thing they’re playing… the Roosters. Oh dear.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
The Roosters coach wasn't happy after a number of controversial calls went against them in their loss to the Storm - does he have…
Death, taxes and the Storm defying pre-season predictions that this year will be the one when they slip down the ladder. Inevitably, seven rounds…
The Storm wasted their Captain's Challenge in the first four minutes against the Roosters with the Nine team left wondering if they even knew…
Ryan Papenhuyzen was pleading for James Tedesco to be sent for ten. Was the Roosters skipper lucky to stay on the field?
This could've been disastrous for the Storm. Jahrome Hughes looked to have earnt a penalty but the non-call snowballed with Cameron Munster soon sent…
The Roosters coach was up in arms after this try to Eliesa Katoa stood, with Channel Nine's Andrew Johns predicting it was going to…
