Seven rounds to go and every side still has at least a mathematical chance of making the finals.

However, the ugly truth is that if your side isn’t in the top seven sides right now, then your boys are no chance of lifting the trophy this season.

Why am I wiping out the other nine sides? Easy.

If the Wests Tigers win all their remaining games they’ll finish on 28 points. That might not even be enough to make the finals either. And they aren’t going to win seven matches. They’ve only won five so far this year and their defence is rotten.

The Gold Coast Titans are two points better off that the Wests Tigers but winning seven straight to make the finals is beyond them. Five of those seven games are against top eight sides. Their defence has been woeful this year, the worst in the comp.

While the Newcastle Knights beat the Titans very well last start, it was only their sixth win of the year. Their run home includes five top eight sides. While their attacking stats are actually pretty good they’ve just leaked too many points to be truly competitive.

The Manly Sea Eagles need to win six of the last games and they start out away to the Warriors minus Daly Cherry-Evans. Then they return for the Broncos and the Rabbitohs. Even if they get through, their pack is simply not good enough to threaten any of the real contenders – although a shout out to Tom Symonds who has impressed the hell out of me.

The Penrith Panthers will fight out season 2015 until their end. They could just scrape in with five victories but their massive injury list means that, in reality, they’ll already be planning for 2016.

Last Friday night the Parramatta Eels looked like 17 guys doing improv theatre simultaneously and none of it was good or funny. It was a train wreck. Their injury list has gotten worse still and complete collapse could occur.

The Canberra Raiders lost their third home match of the season by a paltry point last Saturday. It is the story of their season: close but not quite good enough. Sammy Williams’ torn pec has probably finished off their chances.

The St George Illawarra Dragons feature some of the best offensive defence I’ve seen. Jack de Belin, Trent Merrin and Tyson Frizell have really smashed opposition attacks. Their side has scored the lowest amount of tries in the NRL. Even if they make the eight they are highly unlikely to make it beyond the first week.

The Cronulla Sutherland Sharks have clawed their way into the eight and their run home isn’t appalling. However, they’ve scored the third fewest tries this season and I’ll be surprised if they can score enough points a match to genuinely trouble the top sides.

So, now we’ve dismissed those sides let’s look at the other seven and analyse their chances.

The New Zealand Warriors
Forwards
The Warriors rank sixth in average metres made per match with 1429 a game. That’s just above average and that’s about where I rank their pack. Ben Mataulino and Jacob Lillyman are their only two forwards who average over 100 metres a game.

While Hoffman and Mannering are good in defence, the New Zealanders lack a genuine barnstorming forward – or enough genuine grunt up front to truly trouble the top sides.

Backs
The Warrior backs have talent to burn. Manu Vatuvei averages 4.6 tackle breaks a game and Kata 3.8 to both be in the top ten in the NRL for the stat. However, big Manu leads the NRL in errors and Kata has 2.5 missed tackles a game.

The Warriors have scored the third most tries this season and made the second most line breaks as well but they make the second most errors.

Overall
The second highest errors has seen them concede almost as many tries as they’ve scored.

Liability
Manu Vatuvei’s handling skills have blown too many tries to count but the real liability for the Warriors is they are probably short one quality prop and one quality back rower.

X Factor
Shaun Johnson is a superstar. Fast as they come and elusive as a six leg margin multi win. While he is the second most error prone half in the game and averages nearly three missed tackles a game. Only Blake Austin and Michael Morgan have more line breaks than Johnson, and only Austin and Anthony Milford have more tries. If the Warriors are contenders it is mostly due to Shaun Johnson.

Why they’ll win it
Two words: Shaun Johnson. On his day he is unstoppable.

Why they won’t win it
Too many errors and too little go forward.

The Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Forwards
The Dogs have four players who average 100 metres or more a game in their forwards: Aiden Tolman, Dave Klemmer, James Graham and Frank Pritchard.

Their side averages 1437 metres a game, the third best in the comp. Josh Jackson and Michael Lichaa are tackling crazy. The pack is very strong. However, it features a couple of hot heads in Graham and Klemmer and Sam Kasiano, Greg Eastwood and Frank Pritchard can miss crucial tackles when they tire, which is often for Kasiano and Pritchard especially.

However, this is a formidable pack in anyone’s language.

Backs
When fully fit, which it has rarely been this year, the backline of Brett and Josh Morris, Tim Lafai, Curtis Rona, Sam Perrett, Josh Reynolds, Tim Browne and Moses Mbye is as good as any going around. Even with their heavy run of injuries they’ve still managed to score the third most tries this season.

Overall
The Dogs have missed the second fewest tackles this season and conceded the third fewest line breaks. if their backline clicks into top gear they can roll anyone.

Liabilities
There’s a number: Josh Reynolds brain explosions, David Klemmer’s temper, James Graham’s temper, Sam Kasiano’s tackling, A pack that might be a bit over sized.

X Factor
I reckon there are three: Josh Reynolds at his competitive best is a fearsome warrior capable of dynamic and deadly attack; David Klemmer with a head of steam is more than most opposition packs can handle; and Brett Morris at the back is a superb attacking weapon.

Why they’ll win it
The Dogs are a very solid all round team. The great majority of their side has recent grand final experience and they know how to play finals. They can win any scrap they are in and they know it.

Why they won’t win it
At the end of the day there are sides with greater star power that could stop the Dogs from claiming the Premiership. But they’ll have to be good.

The Melbourne Storm
Forwards
The Storm pack has for years been full of meat and potatoes that Craig Bellamy has crafted into fillet mignon and pomme de terre au gratin under the leadership of Cam Smith. However, this year the cracks are showing. Only two of the Purple Pack are making over 100 metres a game: Jesse Bromwich and Tohu Harris – and Harris just barely.

Their side makes less than the NRL average metres per game. Further, their tackle breaks are also below average.

Backs
While the packs go forward is certainly a problem for Bellamy, the biggest problem is that they are scoring fewer than the NRL average tries per game this season. Without Billy Slater and Sisa Waqa they are a bit insipid in attack and they’ve only won nine of 17 games as a result.

Overall
The Storm’s defence boasts the third best missed tackles in the NRL and the second fewest line breaks conceded. As well, they make the least errors of any side in the NRL.

Liabilities
Without Slater there isn’t enough points in the Storm and Billy is gone for the season.

X Factor
Cooper Cronk is such a good halfback that he could possibly get a reserve grade side across the line. Some say he’s been doing that for a while.

Why they’ll win it
Cronk will get the backs singing and Cam Smith will keep the forwards stuck on task. They will play field position football with low errors, wait for their opponents to drop it and then pounce.

Why they won’t win it
Without Billy their pouncing won’t be good enough.

South Sydney Rabbitohs
Forwards
The Rabbitohs are another side that only has two forwards breaking 100 metres a game on average: the Burgess twins. Last season they had four. In 2014 they were the second highest metre gaining side in the comp. In 2015 they have dropped to 13th.

Last year they were the second highest tackle breaking side, this year they are sixth. The losses of Sam Burgess and Ben Teo have been big ones that the Bunnies pack have not recovered from.

Backs
It’s a tale of woe in the backs too. The side that topped the try scoring in 2014 now languishes in tenth spot for tries scored. Their season has been disrupted by a number of injuries to their play maker Adam Reynolds but their key trouble is that it is hard for backs to shine when the pack isn’t going forward.

Overall
The Rabbitohs defence is still stellar. They miss the fewest tackles of any side in 2015, just like last season. However, they’ve lost grunt up forward and it has resulted in fewer points and fewer wins.

Liabilities
The Rabbitohs’ depth isn’t strong enough to cope with key injuries. If they lose a Burgess, Reynolds or Inglis to injury they’ll struggle badly.

X Factor
Greg Inglis is a superstar. While this has not been the best season so far for the Bowraville Queenslander, the season ain’t done yet. He can score from anywhere and he knows that he’s better than you.

Why they’ll win it
Finals experience counts for a lot in September and the Rabbitohs now have lots of it – as well as some super star power.

Why they won’t win it
Their pack can’t match it with the other contenders.

The Sydney Roosters
Forwards
While the Roosters certainly miss the fire power of Sonny Bill Williams, in 2015 they are still averaging the second highest metres per game and have four regular players making 100+ metres a game. While Boyd Cordner still has a few cogs to step up yet the pack is pretty handy indeed. No problem here.

Backs
This is a stellar backline. Daniel Tupou, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Michael Jennings, Blake Ferguson and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is probably the strongest back five in the league – if their enigmatic halves are playing well.

While the duo of James Maloney and Mitch Pearce have 20 try assists between them this year, they are lagging behind their excellent numbers from 2014 and especially 2013.

Further, apart from the Wests Tigers’ Mitchell Moses and Luke Brooks, Pearce and Maloney are the worst defensive halves combination in the NRL. They have also given away easily the most penalties of any halves combo this year.

Overall
Their defence is still outstanding. They have conceded just 46 line breaks this year, the fewest of any side and half what the Sea Eagles have allowed. That has translated into just 35 tries conceded, the best of all the teams.

They are also the second best tackle breaking side this season. In attack they are yet to cut loose but if this side clicks into gear they can obliterate any comers. The question is will they?

Liabilities
The defence of Maloney. The lack of penalty love they get from the whistle blowers.

X Factor
Blake Ferguson. He is huge, fast, strong and skilled. He can break most one on one tackles. The bloke can be anything he wants to be. What does he want to be?

Why they’ll win it
All round they are a magnificent side with skill and discipline to burn. They also have lots of finals experience and no grand final hangover.

Why they won’t win it
It just isn’t quite happening for the Roosters this year. The killer edge is missing. They might not find it.

The North Queensland Cowboys
Forwards
The Cowboys are the leading metre-gaining side in the NRL and lots of that is because their pack is so damn good. They have four players: Jason Taumalolo, Matt Scott, James Tamou and Gavin Cooper making over 100 metres a match, with Ethan Lowe, Ben Hannant and Scott Bolton in the 90s.

If you think that’s impressive they are also the side that concedes the least metres per game. They average 260 metres more a game than their opposition.

In the forwards only Andrew Fifita breaks more tackles than Jason Taumalolo on average. But my favourite Cowboys forward in 2015 is Jake Granville. When he isn’t scoring tries he’s stopping them. An awesome pack.

Backs
Lachlan Coote spent last year laid up injured. This season he has proved to be the missing piece of the puzzle so many thought him to be at the Cowboys. He has allowed Michael Morgan to roam free at 5/8. Coote is also causing constant danger to opposition sides – as evidenced by his 3.9 tackle breaks and 144 metres a game.

Overall the side is only ranked fifth in tries scored but with Johnathan Thurston at the helm they get the points when they need them.

Overall
The Cowboys are second best for penalties conceded and errors committed. They give their opponents very little free ball. This is a main reason that their metres for and against are so good. Superb in the forwards, like the Roosters, they might just be about to cut loose in attack.

Liabilities
They are very heavily dependent on Johnathan Thurston. If he goes down so will the Cowboys.

X Factor
Johnathan Thurston is the key. He has the skill and big game experience to bring this club their maiden premiership. Taumalolo could also cause untold carnage and mayhem in the finals and I for one want to see it!

Why they’ll win it
Because they are the complete side. Because they are weak in no position and very strong in so many.

Because Johnathan Thurston. It is their time.

Why they won’t win it
In the NRL era the only sides who have won grand finals without being in one in the previous five to six seasons are the Penrith Panthers (2003), the Wests Tigers (2005), The Dragons (2010) and the Rabbitohs (2014). That’s just 20 per cent of the time. And the Wests Tigers and the Dragons were both playing equally inexperienced sides. The Cowboys would have to beat those odds.

The Brisbane Broncos
Forwards
After Josh McGuire was ruled out for the season the Broncos have been left with only two forwards who make over 100 metres a game: Corey Parker and Alex Glenn.

The forward pack only makes just slightly more metres a game than the NRL average. In fact, they concede slightly more than they make. This is not ideal.

However, they know how to tackle. As evidenced by their stoic defence of the Storm, the Broncos average more tackles made on average per game than any other this year.

Backs
With Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford at the helm (with Alf Langer running behind him telling them what to do) the Broncos backline is on song. They have scored the most tries and broken the line more than any other side.

While Lachlan Maranta is their top scorer with 13 tries, the Broncos have had 18 try scorers this season, the most of any side.

Overall
The return of Wayne Bennett has seen the Broncos rise again. As well as their great attacking stats, they are also great in defence. They boast the fourth best missed tackles and they are the least penalised side in the NRL.

Liabilities
The loss of McGuire has exposed the Broncos front row. They aren’t quite big enough now and they don’t provide the necessary go forward required to win the title. As well, Milford and Hunt are yet to be properly blooded in the cauldron of finals football.

X Factor
Anthony Milford is a freak. The more his experience and confidence grows the more dangerous the Raiders junior will become. He can break any line and out run almost anyone.

Why they’ll win it
Because Brisbane have never lost a grand final they’ve been in. Six from six.

Why they won’t win it
They won’t get to the grand final because their front row isn’t good enough.