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Bletchingly Stakes 2015: Historical preview, analysis, and top tips

(AAP Image/Julian Simth)
Roar Guru
24th July, 2015
2

The Bletchingly Stakes 2015 spells the last Group race of the season and we’ll be looking for a winter winner as we tune up into Spring.

This year it looks a tough race to assess, with quite a few resuming from a spell, and some that have a fitness edge, but perhaps lack the class to win at first glance. For that reason, I’m primarily looking at history to find us a winner.

Below are the last 10 winners of this 1200m Group 3 WFA race which was first held in 1992 with age, sex and winning barriers.

2014 – Thiamandi 3f (3)
2013 – Second Effort 6g (6)
2012 – Ready To Rip 4g (6)
2011 – Mid Summer Music 5m (7)
2010 – Shoot Out 3g (1)
2009 – Let Go Thommo 9g (8)
2008 – Commanding Hope 4g (8)
2007 – Apache Cat 5g (5)
2006 – Minson 4g (4)
2005 – Regal Roller 6g (6)

Pertinent statistics:

A) The race was run in early August before 2010 so the prior five winners had only just turned one year older. Arguably it is a good race for the younger horses with five of the past ten winners being aged three or four, and the high-class Apache Cat a new season five-year old. None have been aged more than six.

B) 10/10 drew barriers 1-8 and 9 of those 10 came out of barriers 3-8.

C) 5 of 10 won the race first up but oddly all of the past 4 winners had at least one run back from a spell.

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D) The stats tell us none of the past 10 winners were an entire or a colt. 8 geldings have won along with 1 filly and 1 mare in this period.

E) 8 of 10 winners were in the first 6 runners early in the race and maintained that position to the turn

F) 7 of 10 either won or placed at last start and two more finished less than 2 lengths from the winner just outside of the placings. Only 2005 winner Regal Roller finished further back than that and he was first up off a run in the Doncaster handicap in Sydney during the Autumn. He was also a track specialist here. All of the horses that haven’t won this race fresh did win or place last start.

G) No horse has led all the way during this period.

Summing up, we are looking for a horse that meets the following set of critera:

1. Preferably 4 years old or younger (bearing in mind it is still July), or no older than 5;
2. Drawing between barriers 3-8;
3. Either a Gelding or Female horse;
4. Able to take up a first six position early but not lead;
5. Either placed last start if already in work, or finished within two lengths of the winner if first up.

There is no ideal historical candidate but the best of them with only one negative would appear to be #5 Inspector.

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Inspector: Only barrier 2 precludes him, but he is an in form four-year old that has everything else going for him historically. His class will be questioned but he did beat Rich Jack by nearly a length three starts back where he met him 1.5kg better at the weights. They meet at level weights here so there shouldn’t be a lot between them. RJ is $11 (and might have to race and lead all the way) and he is $41.

His defeat last start was on the synthetic track at Geelong carrying a big weight, off a longer than preferred break. He has race fitness on his side and has the ability to sit just behind the leaders from that good barrier draw.

I think he is a silly price and three horses have won this race at $17 or better in the period studied, so there is no reason to doubt him on that score, especially with a fitness edge on some of the classier horses.

Form Analysis

SMOKIN’ JOEY came off a win in Brisbane during the Winter and as many Victorian horses do, he may well have benefited from the warmer climate up North and the residual fitness he brings into an early Melbourne feature race.

It didn’t help him at all off a similar preparation last year with a failure down the straight at Flemington, but he does like this track and he is a Group 1 winner at the distance. He is drawn a touch awkwardly which won’t help him race close enough to the leaders but if the pace is hot up front he will be advantaged.

LORD OF THE SKY is probably going to start a warm favourite here. He is a much-maligned galloper because of his continual failures at short odds, but there is no doubt he will win this if he is close his best. His trainer blames himself for the first-up defeat saying he was flat after a trackwork gallop. He has reverted back to the training method utilised before this horses’ career best, close second to Chautauqua in the TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick.

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He has gone very easy on him, and basically just walked the horse in the lead up for this. It’s worth realising that this is the only track he has won at (5 wins), and he has a super second up record, three wins and a placing from four attempts.

Although this isn’t a true second up scenario it is the closest thing to it. I’d be prepared to forgive the last run, as he missed the start and had to work hard wide and back in the field, in a very leader dominated race.

PETROLOGY is a three-year old colt well in the market here. Damien Oliver has elected to ride him over Lord Of The Sky. The stable opinion that the horse has matured considerably may be a big factor in that decision but maybe Damien is also looking to the Spring with this horse. This is the start of that campaign and whether he can win first up at a track he doesn’t really like (0-2/5) is debatable.

He has an awkward barrier which probably necessitates he getting back in the field but I’d expect him to be making considerable ground at the finish and stamp himself as a genuine Spring contender.

ANGELS BEACH is very honest and should be in the thick of things when the whips are cracking. If this were 1000m or 1100m you would have to have her on top, but she might just struggle at 1200m in this class. Barrier 1 could give her a soft enough run to run the trip out strongly enough, though.

PLATINUM ROCKER is a handy mare from Perth who was reasonably impressive in a soft trial win at Tatura recently for a new stable, and given a spell after that. She is Group 1 placed in a Railway Stakes over there and her first up record is very good (3-1/6). One of those defeats was a 3 length third to Srikandi a the Gold Coast giving that filly 5kg. That sort of form puts her in with a very realistic hope here.

Craig Williams takes the ride which could be a bonus and she has a gear change of Cheekers for the first time (flat rubber rings that keep the bit in the top of the mouth).

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WRITTEN DASH is worth consideration given her three-year old filly status and coming in fresh here. If she can repeat her winning effort at massive odds in a Moonee Valley Group 3 three-year old race three starts ago, she could be the surprise packet. She looks pretty good historically, but her tendency to get back in the field prevented me from coupling her with Inspector as the best on that score. $21+ is a good price though, especially if they go very fast up front.

My top 4 for the 2015 Bletchingly Stakes:

1. INSPECTOR
2. ANGELS BEACH
3. PLATINUM ROCKER
4. PETROLOGY

…..but you have to keep in mind that LORD OF THE SKY should win this, at his best. Will he be at his best? Watch the market.

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