With just the one round of Super League and the Championship action to go, it is all but decided who will be playing in the Middle Eights in two weeks.
Hull KR would have to win at St Helens and make up a 73-point differential over the eighth placed Catalan Dragons to avoid the drop. That’s possible but unlikely.
As it stands now the Rovers will be joined by Widnes, Salford and Wakefield.
The Vikings host the Red Devils this weekend for an important fourth home fixture in the Middle Eights.
The Super League clubs placed ninth and 10th get four home fixtures and three away, while 11th and 12th position get three at home and four away.
The Championship’s top four has been decided with Leigh, Bradford, Sheffield and Halifax qualifying for the next stage in what they hope might lead to a Super League berth.
Leigh and Bradford hold the top two positions on the ladder and will therefore be allocated four home games. Sheffield and Halifax will host three fixtures.
All eight clubs will start on zero points, playing seven rounds, with the top three qualifying for Super League in 2016 and the bottom three relegated to the Championship.
Fourth place will host the fifth placed side in what has been dubbed the Million Pound Match, the winner of this sudden death clash will join the other three Super League bound clubs.
Here are some bold predictions of who will stay and who will go:
Hull KR
The Rovers have an outside chance of avoiding the Middle Eights altogether but it seems unlikely, however they will play four matches at home where they have won 9 from 12 this season.
They have beaten some good opposition at Craven Park including reigning premiers St Helens, runners up Wigan, along with heavyweights Warrington, Huddersfield and Catalan Dragons.
Hull KR will likely face Widnes, Salford, Leigh and Sheffield at home, they then face Bradford, Wakefield and Halifax away.
It is unlikely the Rovers will lose more than one of these games, their future in Super League is just about certain.
Widnes Vikings
Despite sitting in 10th place, Widnes like Hull KR have a decent home record, they have lost just three matches at Halton this season.
They host Salford this weekend and if last week’s results are anything to go by, they should win this one comfortably. Their most recent clash with the Red Devils was a 38-16 thrashing during the Magic Weekend.
If they do win this match they will be allocated four home fixtures, most likely against Bradford, Salford, Wakefield and Halifax. They then face away trips to Hull KR, Leigh and Sheffield.
The Vikings have an atrocious away record this season with just the solitary win at Wakefield, they will probably lose to Hull KR but find a win against Sheffield.
Their fixture at Leigh should prove interesting but will probably not be the difference between survival and relegation.
The Vikings have a lot of class around the field and will probably finish second in the Middle Eights.
Salford Red Devils
Despite a 70-6 thumping at the hands of the mighty Leeds Rhinos last weekend, Salford’s prospects were looking up.
They had won three of their last five before the spanking they received at Headingly, including wins at home to Hull KR and Catalans.
They can do themselves a lot of favours if they can find a win at Widnes this weekend, receiving an extra home game will make it that much easier for them in the Middle Eights.
Salford have had a tumultuous season on and off the field with one of the most unstable squads in Super League, however there is enough talent in the Red Devils’ playing group to see them survive, it all depends on which Salford turns up on the day.
They have already tasted defeat against Championship opposition when Leigh beat them 22-18 in the Challenge Cup.
They will likely host Leigh if they finish in 11th position, along with home games against Wakefield and Sheffield.
Third spot is definitely within the realms of possibility for Salford and at worst they will probably see themselves playing in the sudden death fourth versus fifth Million Pound Match, hopefully hosting for their sake.
This will really test the fingernails of eccentric billionaire owner Marwan Koukash, who copped a serve from Leeds coach Brian McDermott last weekend.
Wakefield Wildcats
Wakefield’s inclusion in the Middle Eights was sealed months ago, when their previous coach James Webster came out admitting they had given up on Super League for 2015.
The Wildcats have only mustered a paltry three wins this season and only one in their last twelve.
Wakefield look Championship bound at this stage, but their fate is in their own hands.
Like Salford, Wakefield will only have three games at home, against Hull KR, Bradford and Halifax.
They should beat Halifax as they did in the Challenge Cup, but will struggle against the Rovers and Bulls.
Wakefield were defeated by the Centurions two months ago, they will be looking for some sort of redemption when they travel to Leigh.
Their remaining away fixtures are at Salford, Widnes and Sheffield. It’s hard to see them winning more than two matches overall to make the sudden death playoff.
Wakefield will probably be competing in the Championship for 2016.
Leigh Centurions
What a couple of years it has been for Leigh, they are a club on the rise and now have their chance to play in the top flight.
The Centurions have lost just one regular season match in both 2014 and 2015, their Challenge Cup form also suggests they are can compete in Super League.
Leigh claimed the scalps of Salford and Wakefield, they also pushed Warrington to the very end in an exciting quarter-final.
They will likely host Widnes, Wakefield, Bradford and Sheffield, while playing away to Hull KR, Salford and Halifax.
In their most recent result, a 36-all draw against Bradford, almost 10,000 spectators turned up to witness the best of the Championship.
Two of their most decisive fixtures should be against the Bulls and Wakefield.
Leigh could finish as high as third, but it’s hard to tell how they will go against consistent Super League opposition.
They will certainly take some beating and could end up hosting the sudden death fixture, a Super League birth for Leigh is well on the cards.
Bradford Bulls
After a horror 2014 season where administration issues left Bradford on the brink of collapse, they have taken to their new life in the Championship with great poise.
The Bulls have lost just three matches in the Championship this season. Two of those losses have come in their last four games, but a morale-lifting draw against the Championship leaders will boost their hopes of a return to Super League.
Like the Centurions the Bulls will be allocated four home games for the Middle Eights, they will likely host Hull KR, Salford, Sheffield and Halifax.
They will be out for revenge against Hull KR, after the Rovers won 50-30 at Odsal in April.
They then face Wakefield, Widnes and Leigh on the road.
They will consider themselves a good chance in all of these matches but will find it hard to win at Widnes and Leigh.
This means they will need to pick up some Super League scalps if they are to qualify for the Million Pound Match. They could potentially find wins against Salford and Wakefield.
Bradford may finish as high as fourth, giving them hosting rights for the sudden-death match, but could also finish in sixth, missing the play-off fixture altogether.
If the Bulls do feature in this match, they will back themselves to return to Super League.
Sheffield Eagles and Halifax Blue Sox
Both the Fax and the Eagles have had tremendous seasons in the Championship but will ultimately be out of their depth in the Middle Eights.
They are well behind the likes of Bradford and Leigh on the table, although Sheffield did grab a 32-30 win against the Bulls a fortnight ago.
The good news for Eagles fans is Sheffield will go full professional next season, regardless of Super League entry or not.
If Leigh’s resurgence as the result of professionalism is anything to go by, Sheffield are headed for greener pastures, but not just yet.
As for Halifax they’ve shown great potential this year with some close losses at the hands of both Leigh and Bradford.
With only three home games each, promotion seems a long way off for these clubs.
Predictions
1. Hull KR
2. Widnes Vikings
3. Leigh Centurions
4. Salford Red Devils
5. Bradford Bulls
6. Wakefield Wildcats
7. Halifax Blue Sox
8. Sheffield Eagles
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