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Can stats pick the weekend's NRL winners? Let's find out

29th July, 2015
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How will the Knights go under Buderus and the 'new coach' effect? (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Expert
29th July, 2015
54
2174 Reads

As I’ve mentioned previously, I worked with a commentator who would loudly and frequently lambast me with the statement, “Stats don’t play the game for ya.”

His point was that stats meant nothing. I quietly disagreed. I think they are a huge pointer for how a side plays the game, their strengths and their weaknesses.

Sure they don’t play the game for you, but they definitely inform the game plans and the strategy of any decent coach.

But can they predict results?

Let’s put it to the test using this weekend’s matches.

Sydney Roosters versus Canterbury Bulldogs

(home/away respectively) Roosters Bulldogs Result
Winning Percentage 66.6% 50% Roosters well
Wins 6 from 8 (75%) 4 from 8 (50%) Roosters decisively
Recent Form Won 6 Lost 1 Roosters well
Pivotal injuries/suspensions No Yes – Reynolds, Tolman Roosters well
Tries Scored 3.6 3.1 Even
Tries Conceded 3.1 3.8 Roosters narrowly
Metres gained 1425 1311 +114 Roosters
Metres conceded 1765 1796 -31 Roosters
Tackles broken 32.1 26 +6 Roosters
Missed tackles 28.6 21.7 +7 Roosters
Line breaks 5.4 4.3 +1.1 Roosters
Penalties conceded 6.5 6.1 Even
Average Score 22.75 20.5 +2 Roosters

Friday night’s clash looks pretty clearcut statistically. The Roosters win pretty much all the stats and to top it off the Dogs are missing Josh Reynolds and Aiden Tolman, while the Roosters are pretty much at full strength and hitting top form.  

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Have a look at both sides’ average metres conceded. Absolutely huge! The average scores suggest a close margin but I’d suggest it might be more than just two points. The Roosters have also won the last three matches between the sides.

Roosters by 14

Wests Tigers versus Melbourne Storm

(home/away respectively) Wests Tigers Melbourne Storm Result
Winning Percentage 27.8% 55.5% Storm decisively
Wins 2 from 9 (22%) 5 from 9 (55.5%) Storm decisively
Recent Form Lost 5 Won 2 Storm decisively
Pivotal injuries/suspensions Yes – Farah, Tapau Yes – Slater Storm narrowly
Tries Scored 3.1 2.67 Wests Tigers narrowly
Tries Conceded 4.4 2.6 Storm well
Metres gained 1400 1379 +21 Wests Tigers
Metres conceded 1503 1288 – 215 Storm
Tackles broken 24.6 23.1 +1.5 Wests Tigers
Missed tackles 26.2 23.6 – 2.6 Storm
Line breaks 3.7 3.3 Even
Penalties conceded 8.2 6.3 -2 Storm
Average score 17.5 14.7 +2.8 Wests Tigers

 

As surprising as it seems, the Wests Tigers actually win a fair few of the statistical match ups. They are all to do with attack – there is no question that the boys from Leichardt/Campbelltown can attack. However, their defence can really stink.

The Storm’s defence, conversely, is very good indeed. It will most probably blunt the Tigers’ attack. This is especially the case when you remove captain Robbie Farah and their second-best tackle breaker, suspended lock Martin Tapau.

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However, the Storm have really struggled to put on points in the absence of Billy Slater, so the Tigers could just jag this one – but they probably won’t.

It’ll be a fairly close result, one way or the other.

Storm by 8

New Zealand Warriors versus Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

(home/away respectively) Warriors Sharks Result
Winning Percentage 50% 55.5% Sharks narrowly
Wins 5 from 9 (55.5%) 6 from 10 (60%) Sharks narrowly
Recent Form Lost 2 Won 3 Sharks well
Pivotal injuries/suspensions Yes – Johnson, Thompson Yes – Fifita, Lewis Even
Tries Scored 4.4 3.6 Warriors narrowly
Tries Conceded 3.7 2 Sharks well
Metres gained 1367 1459 +92 Sharks
Metres conceded 1468 1028 -340 Sharks
Tackles broken 28.7 30.1 +1.5 Sharks
Missed tackles 26.9 22.4 -2.5 Sharks
Line breaks 5.4 4.9 +0.5 Warriors
Penalties conceded 5.9 7.1 -1.2 Warriors
Average score 24.4 19.4 +5 Warriors

 

In spite of being away from home, the Sharks have the stats all over the Warriors. Plus the Warriors have lost their best try assister and second-best line breaker with the injury to Shaun Johnson. Further, Bodene Thompson is out to further skew the stats.

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While the Sharks will be without Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis, those losses pale in comparison to the loss of the Warriors’ mercurial half. Further, the Sharks are in good form and know how to win over the ditch.

Sharks by 10

North Queensland Cowboys versus Canberra Raiders

(home/away respectively) Cowboys Raiders Result
Winning Percentage 77.8% 44.4% Cowboys well
Wins 6 from 9 (66.6%) 6 from 9 (66.6%) Even
Recent Form Won 3 Won 1 Cowboys decisively
Pivotal injuries/suspensions No Yes – Williams, Waqa Cowboys decisively
Tries Scored 3.6 4.2 Raiders narrowly
Tries Conceded 3.1 3.7 Cowboys narrowly
Metres gained 1582 1316 +266 Cowboys
Metres conceded 1330 1696 -366 Cowboys
Tackles broken 32 26 +6 Cowboys
Missed tackles 23.6 28 -4.4 Cowboys
Line breaks 4.4 4.2 even
Penalties conceded 4.0 6.4 -2.4 Cowboys
Average score 22.2 24.7 +2.5 Raiders

 

There are two stats in the Raiders’ favour here: they have actually won two-thirds of their away games – one of which was in Cairns – and they can actually score tries on the road. But that’s where it ends. The stats say that the Cowboys will make 632 metres more than the Raiders. That’s massive and match winning.  

While North Queensland’s home form is far worse than their away form, it is still hard to see the Raiders – especially without their general Sam Williams – getting over the top of the red-hot Cowboys, especially when they haven’t managed it in Townsville since 2005.

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Cowboys 13+

Manly Sea Eagles versus Brisbane Broncos

(home/away respectively) Sea Eagles Broncos Result
Winning Percentage 38.9% 83.3% Broncos decisively
Wins 4 from 8 (50%) 7 from 9 (77.8%) Broncos well
Recent Form Won 1 Won 8 Broncos decisively
Pivotal injuries/suspensions Yes – Symonds, Buhrer Yes – McGuire, Blair Even
Tries Scored 3.3 3.3 Even
Tries Conceded 4.8 2.7 -2.1 Broncos
Metres gained 1313 1404 +91 Broncos
Metres conceded 1760 1363 -397 Broncos
Tackles broken 20.8 23 +2.2 Broncos
Missed tackles 35.9 20.2 -15.7 Broncos
Line breaks 3.5 4.6 +1.1 Broncos
Penalties conceded 7.3 5.9 -1.4 Broncos
Average score 20.2 19.4 +0.8 Sea Eagles

 

The Broncos are in scintillating form. While the Sea Eagles have a tiny advantage in the average score department, every other stat is firmly in the Broncos’ favour. The injury to Tom Symonds – one of Manly’s only bright lights this season – has fully negated the absence of Adam Blair and Josh McGuire for the Broncos.

Expect the Broncos to make the extra 488 metres over their opponents, mostly through missing a truckload fewer tackles than their opponents. If they do beat Manly, it will be the first time the Broncos have won away to them since June 2010.

And win they will. Manly’s propensity for missing tackles will be music to the ears of Anthony Milford.

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Broncos by 13+

St George Illawarra Dragons versus Newcastle Knights

(home/away respectively) Dragons Knights Result
Winning Percentage 44.4% 33.3% Dragons narrowly
Wins 5 from 9 (55.5%) 2 from 8 (25%) Dragons well
Recent form Lost 7 Lost 1 Knights narrowly
Pivotal injuries/suspensions Yes – Merrin Yes – Mullen, Rochow Dragons well
Tries Scored 2.9 2.5 Even
Tries Conceded 3.2 4.5 -1.3 Dragons
Metres gained 1489 1271 +218 Dragons
Metres conceded 1452 1682 -230 Dragons
Tackles broken 24 29.8 +4.8 Knights
Missed tackles 25.7 33.7 -8 Dragons
Line breaks 3.3 4.4 +1.1 Knights
Penalties conceded 4.9 5.8 -0.9 Dragons
Average score 18.5 15.5 +3 Dragons

 

The Dragons have lost seven on the trot, but Newcastle have lost eight of their last ten. The Dragons have been cruelled by injuries and suspension during that period but they are virtually back at full strength now. Further, the stats say the Red V will make 448 more metres than the Knights, a match-winning stat in itself.

The Dragons really struggle to score tries but so do the Knights when away. Without Jarrod Mullen it just got even harder for the Novocastrians. Further, their defence is nowhere near as good as the Dragons’.

One factor that might come into play is the sacked-coach rebound. However, it is hard to see the Knights winning at Kogarah.

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Dragons by 8

South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Penrith Panthers

(home/away respectively) Rabbitohs Panthers Result
Winning Percentage 61.1% 38.9% Rabbitohs decisively
Wins 7 from 9 (77.8%) 2 from 8 (25%) Rabbitohs decisively
Recent form Won 2 Lost 3 Rabbitohs Decisively
Pivotal injuries/suspensions no Yes – Moylan, Wallace, Docker, Kite, Idris, Whare, Plum, Watene-Zelezniak Rabbitohs Decisively
Tries Scored 4.67 2.4 +2.27 Rabbitohs
Tries Conceded 3.2 3.9 -0.7 Rabbitohs
Metres gained 1441 1301 +140 Rabbitohs
Metres conceded 1365 1562 -197 Rabbitohs
Tackles broken 29.7 25 +4.7 Rabbitohs
Missed tackles 19 41.8 -22.8 Rabbitohs
Line breaks 5.9 3.9 +2 Rabbitohs
Penalties conceded 6.0 6.8 -0.8 Rabbitohs
Average score 25.1 13.1 +12 Rabbitohs

 

Two primary things to note: the Rabbitohs win every stat, decisively in most cases; and the Panthers have the worst injury toll in the NRL.

It has been a horror year for Penrith after such a good one in 2014. The news gets worse too as the Rabbitohs have just started to hit ominous form after a mediocre season to date. 

In the Round 17 fixture the Panthers beat a Greg Inglis-less Rabbitohs 20-6. However, that side featured Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Peter Wallace, Dean Whare and Nigel Plum. Those men won’t play in this match. Inglis, fresh from scoring three tries, will.

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It is hard to see the Panthers getting close to the Rabbitohs.

Rabbitohs by 20+

Gold Coast Titans Vs Parramatta Eels

Titans Eels Result
Winning Percentage 33.3% 38.9% Eels narrowly
Wins (home/away respectively) 2 from 9 (22%) 4 from 9 (44.4%) Eels well
Recent Form Lost 5 Lost 2 Eels well
Pivotal injuries/suspensions Yes – Zillman Yes – Norman, Watmough, Sandow Titans narrowly
Tries Scored 3.2 3.56 Even
Tries Conceded 5.1 4.1 +1 Titans
Metres gained 1444 1354 +90 Titans
Metres conceded 1497 1380 -117 Eels
Tackles broken 20.9 19.3 +1.6 Titans
Missed tackles 41.1 37.8 -3.3 Eels
Line breaks 3.8 2.8 +1 Titans
Penalties conceded 7.6 7 even
Average score 18.9 18.6 Even

 

There is not so much as a struck match in this game statistically. Notably, both have diabolical defence. Usually in games like this you’d go for the home team but statistically the Eels are better on the road than the Titans are at home. In fact, the last time either of these sides beat the other at home was the Titans back in 2013.

This match will be won by the Titans because they have virtually their full-strength side on the pitch, with only Will Zillman missing, while the Eels are missing Anthony Watmough, Corey Norman and the recently released Chris Sandow.

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Titans 13+

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