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Aside from a few memorable exceptions, the established powers of rugby have generally cruised past all rivals on the way to the final eight at the Rugby World Cup.
In the 2011 tournament, the only major surprise was Tonga defeating eventual runners up France.
Unfortunately for Tonga, they failed to go through to the quarter-finals as they had been upset by Canada a couple of weeks earlier.
However, there are signs arising that this year’s tournament could break the mould. While the introduction of professionalism initially increased the gap between the top nations and the so-called minnows, this has begun to close in the last decade.
Average margins in pool games at the World Cup peaked at 36.2 points in 2003, decreasing to 30.25 in 2007 and 28.1 in 2011. With more players from tier two nations now playing professionally, a slightly more equitable draw and improved preparations (including multiple warm up games for each team), it seems likely that margins will decrease further in England.
The question is whether the gap has closed enough to result in several upsets.
Perhaps not, but of the 20 teams participating in this year’s tournament, I would suggest only Namibia and Uruguay have zero chance of making it to the quarter-finals.
The likes of Fiji, Japan, USA, Canada, Romania and Georgia will all be improved from four years ago, and I think we might just see the beginnings of a big shake up in the world rugby pecking order.
Here are four games where I can see the underdog pulling off a big surprise:
Japan versus Scotland
Japan are probably the most improved team since the previous World Cup. While they’ve been a little inconsistent, in the last two years they’ve defeated Italy and Wales (Wales being without their British and Irish Lions representatives), and got within two points of the Maori All Blacks. With these results they’ve shown that they have the ability to beat a lower tier one team like Scotland.
Their performances so far in the 2015 Pacific Nations Cup have been a little patchy, but coach Eddie Jones has repeatedly said he is treating the games like training runs and doesn’t want to give anything away tactically. Scotland will be tough, but they are not the strongest team and won’t be able to bully Japan to the same extent South Africa will.
When the two sides played in November 2013, it was very close for about 65 minutes before three late tries gave the Scots a comfortable win. But Japan, like all these tier two sides, will be much better prepared at the World Cup, and I expect their fast-paced game to cause Scotland a lot of trouble if conditions are good.
Georgia versus Argentina
Argentina’s form in the Rugby Championship this year has been quite poor. They have not looked at all dangerous in attack and their lack of depth in the front row has been exposed. While their starting scrum has been good against New Zealand and Australia, their replacements have been dominated. Particular concerns are held on the tighthead side, with Juan Figallo already out of the tournament and Ramiro Herrera now needing knee surgery.
Georgia have arguably the strongest scrum and maul in the world and I can see them edging Argentina up front, especially late in the match. The question is whether they’re good enough in the other areas of the game to win. While they remain very direct in approach, Georgia’s game has evolved over the last couple of years, making them capable of using the ball and taking advantage of space in the wider channels.
With impressive wins over Samoa and Japan in the last couple of years, they will not fear Argentina. I think their defence will be strong enough to limit the Pumas and that they’ll have the ability to convert forward dominance and possession into points. It’ll be a ferocious Test match.
Tonga versus Argentina
Tonga also have a great opportunity to beat Argentina and possibly make the quarter-finals. Their form in the last month has been good and they’ll be hungry to go one better in 2015. While they won’t dominate in the tight five against the Pumas, they are good enough to hold their own and they have the skill throughout their side to make breaks and score tries.
Argentina will be rightful favourites in games against Tonga and Georgia, but look particularly vulnerable at the moment.
Fiji versus England
There’s a lot to like about the current Fijian side. A back line full of stars including one of the best players in the world, Nemani Nadolo, complemented by some big and skilful forwards and an improving set piece. In four matches so far this year, Fiji has had close wins over Tonga and Japan, drawn with Samoa and lost to the Maori All Blacks by one point.
Fiji were dominant in the first half against both Samoa and the Maori, and if they can turn that form into an 80 minute performance they’ll be capable of beating anyone at the World Cup.
I think a lot of people would suggest Fiji’s best chance of an upset is against Wales. They’ve beaten them before at the World Cup, but I believe the most vulnerable team could be England.
England’s match against Fiji will open the tournament and they’ll have a lot of pressure on them as hosts. Their backline remains unsettled and I could see a few too many nervy mistakes being punished by arguably the best counter-attackers in the world.
There’s plenty of other potential upsets.
Canada and Romania will fancy themselves against Italy and possibly even France, while the USA will be out to emulate their recent success in 7’s when they take on the likes of Scotland and Samoa.
What do you think Roarers? Are you predicting any major World Cup upsets?
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