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How far can the Tigers go?

3rd August, 2015
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3rd August, 2015
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Have the Tigers roared into premiership contention off the back of dismantling the Hawks on Friday night?

Their recent record against the current top four demands they be taken seriously, but weight of history suggests otherwise. Which to believe?

Richmond have raised eyebrows against the best sides this season, defeating both Fremantle and Sydney interstate earlier in the year, and pushing West Coast all the way in their meeting.

In the last two weeks they have infamously thrown away certain victory against the Dockers once more, before recording their most impressive win of the year against the ‘unbeatable’ Hawks.

As enigmatic as the Tigers always are, if we look at the last three years, Richmond actually has a positive combined win-loss record against Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast.

Since the start of 2013, they are 2-1 against both the Hawks and Eagles, 2-2 against the Swans, with a 2-3 record against the Dockers the only team of these four they’re in the negative against. And two of those losses to Freo have been by four points or less, with the Dockers securing last-gasp victory each time, seconds only remaining on the clock.

It’s an unavoidable fact that the Tigers match-up well against these sides, better than their station suggests they should.

Beating any three of them in a row in order to claim a flag is, of course, a different story. But this is what they’ll have to do, with a top-four finish unlikely. Richmond can win all of their remaining games and would still likely fall short of claiming the coveted double chance.

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The biggest historical challenge the Tigers have to overcome is something that has happened only once in the last 17 years – winning the premiership without winning a final the year before.

The only team to do it in that time is Geelong in 2007, when they came from outside the top eight to dominate all competition on the way to a storied flag. However, that Cats outfit had won finals in 2004 and 2005, not to mention finishing three games clear on top of the ladder as the clear best team in the competition.

Neither of those factors apply to Richmond, who haven’t won a final since 2001, and will be forced to make their charge from a fifth or sixth placed finish.

There is a little ray of light for how far the Tiges can go though – five grand finalists in the last 17 years have made it to the big day without winning a final the previous year, the most recent also coming in 2007 when Port joined Geelong on the last Saturday in September having missed the eight the previous year.

Again though, Port had won finals in 2004 (including the flag) and 2005, so had plenty of winning September experience to call on.

Richmond will be looking to Adelaide of 1997, a club that missed the finals in 1996. The Crows finished fourth with only 13 wins in ’97, the same amount as West Coast in fifth. They then proceeded to win all four finals, knocking off the top three sides on the ladder on their way to an inaugural premiership.

The Tigers are going to have to do something similar in order to go all the way. Beating the top four is within their capability.

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Richmond’s elimination final could be the biggest impasse of all. Despite their impressive record against the current top four, they don’t match up well at all against the other likely finalists.

The Tigers have lost their last two against the Western Bulldogs, haven’t beaten Geelong since 2006, and have only beaten North once in their last eight encounters. This is a cause for concern for all in the yellow and black army, desperately hoping to avoid a third year in a row of not making it past week one of the finals.

There is a new-found resilience at Tigerland though, sown in the seeds of losses to Melbourne, the Dogs, Geelong and North earlier in the season.

Can Richmond go all the way this year? It’s an extremely unlikely scenario, but they’ll be the club none of the top four wants to play at the business end.

Get on them to win a final this year, but 2016 will be their year of contention.

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