Formula One has much to ponder as it heads into the midseason factory shutdown, with the frontrunners in particular brooding on what to make of their opening halves of the season.
Upon reflection, the 2015 season has been more tumultuous than the bad press and routine podium results have suggested.
Though Mercedes are well on their way to a second consecutive constructors title, the drivers championship remains close enough to resemble something of a contest that could yet erupt when racing resumes later this month.
Lewis Hamilton leads teammate Nico Rosberg, but only by 21 points – less than one race win – while Sebastian Vettel sits third with a total deficit of 42 points. With 225 points on offer for the nine remaining races, the title race remains open.
The idea of a mighty championship upset has been given new life after Mercedes was twice forced to fight for victory despite having the pace to score clinical one-two finishes from two easy front-row lockouts.
At Silverstone the fight was successful – though a clumsy Williams, temporarily paralysed by the tricky decision of whether to favour the quicker Valtteri Bottas in P2 over the slower Felipe Massa in the lead, essentially waved Hamilton through by throwing away a key strategic advantage. It was a textbook case of a smaller team still getting to grips with racing at the front, giving Mercedes the opportunity to exploit their raw speed to retake the lead.
But it’s the comparison between this race and the Hungarian Grand Prix that is most telling – and Mercedes’ loss here could yet have serious implications for their drivers’ fight for the title.
Not only was Vettel able to effortlessly win this grand prix after rocketing past the slow-starting Silver Arrows, Mercedes essentially counted themselves out of the running from the first lap by virtue of strategic weaknesses to match sloppy on-track racing.
The team’s capitulation to Rosberg’s tyre demands in particular is a concerning sign for a team that has seldom had to use strategy as anything other than a formality in the last 18 months, leaving the team keenly undercooked for the rigours of battling a top-class opponent.
Rosberg took his eye off the victory in Budapest despite having the car to seize it and slash his championship deficit to Hamilton, choosing to cover his teammate’s strategy and consolidate fifth place rather than make an assault on the podium.
He chose the medium tyres – almost two seconds slower than the softs – because he felt more comfortable on them, but in doing so both undermined his own competitiveness and the team’s ability to win the race.
Worse, though, was that the team accepted his plea on face value, abandoning all ambition for victory in the process.
It isn’t the first time Mercedes has been caught strategically short under pressure – think Monaco this season when a call initiated by Hamilton, who was acting on incorrect information that neither he nor the team bothered to verify with each other, led to a catastrophic loss of the lead and the race win to teammate Rosberg.
While the Hungarian decision was less damaging, it hints at a decision-making process that isn’t as sound as the team’s results suggest. And in the face of an experienced championship-winning team like Ferrari, anything less than flawless won’t cut it.
With the FIA set to introduce its ban on driver assistance setting up the clutch, increasing the chance of unpredictable starts like those seen in Britain and Hungary, the onus will be on Mercedes to prove that they can outsmart their opponents as well as outmuscle them.
All eyes on Belgium, then.
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