There’s still two weeks of winter left, but spring racing is quickly creeping up on us.
We’re seeing some handy three-year-olds stake their claims for a brighter future in the mid-week events, and the PB Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, WFA) at Caulfield is another marker on the way to ‘real’ racing returning.
Roar expert Justin Cinque made the case earlier this week that we don’t need WFA racing in August, and while he’s right, the PB Lawrence has assembled a more than handy field with Group racing credentials.
The horse with the most potential to impact the bigger races during the Melbourne spring is probably the David Hayes and Tom Dabernig-trained import, Dibayani. The best of his Hong Kong form suggests he might be the right mix of stamina and speed for a race like the Caulfield Cup, which he is my early tip for, so an early look at the track is no bad thing.
While he has impressed in a couple of jump-outs at Flemington, extending to the line nicely in the most recent, I’m not sure how much of a winning chance he is here against some handy sprinter and miler types. Look for an eye-catching return as a pointer to greater things.
Smokin’ Joey has been backed into early favouritism, understandably so after his barnstorming Bletchingly Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, WFA) win first-up at Caulfield a fortnight ago.
That race was set up perfectly for him with a hot early speed, which he usually needs, and he did have a class edge on his rivals that day. The presence of The Cleaner here will leave Smokin’ Joey connections confident of a similar scenario at his pet distance range.
Petrology trailed that horse into the Bletchingly, but just couldn’t go with him in the straight, still finishing third in a pleasing return. He’s run some nice races in his short career, and there is a strong sense that David Hayes has yet to get to the bottom of him.
He’ll be an interesting horse to follow in the spring, to see where he ends up. A potential Toorak Handicap horse, or perhaps will be aimed at some of the country cups in the 1600-2000m range.
Mourinho resumes as an eight-year-old after a Melbourne autumn in which he was a genuine, yet surprising, WFA presence.
He resumed with a boilover win in the Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, WFA) at his favoured Moonee Valley, but followed it up with a Group 1 placing behind Dissident before beating the likes of Happy Trails in the Peter Young Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, WFA).
If that form can he trusted, and he comes up again, Mourinho is a major player in this event.
The Cleaner took the racing world by storm last spring, and proved himself an honest Group 1 competitor across the 2014-15 season, with respectable runs in the Cox Plate, Emirates Stakes and Australia Cup.
He’s yet to win below a mile, but does possess a strong first-up record. Sure to get an uncontested lead, he’s always dangerous in that situation and must be taken seriously as a winning chance.
The other main chance in the PB Lawrence is the Sydney visitor Excess Knowledge, a Gai Waterhouse horse that was last seen taking out the Doncaster Prelude.
He’s been trialled right up to fitness for this, as is the Waterhouse way, will likely take a sit behind The Cleaner and be the first one to try and get past him. Excess Knowledge has improved in each prep since arriving in Australia, and may well do so again. If so, he has enough class to win at his first try in WFA company.
No Tricks is a former New Zealand mare that earned some prize money through the Brisbane winter in black-type races. Big Memory can run a race first-up, but has the first Tuesday in November as his ultimate goal. Taiyoo is in a similar boat. All three have staying tests in mind.
Selections
1. Excess Knowledge
2. Smokin’ Joey
3. Dibayani
4. Mourinho
There’s plenty of great three-year-old racing around tomorrow as well.
At Caulfield we see the Vain Stakes for the boys and Quezette Stakes for the girls, both over 1100m, as they head off on a Guineas path. Braccenby might be the one to watch out for at value in the former, while all eyes will be on boom filly Petits Filous, to see if she can justify odds-on favouritism and maintain her unbeaten streak. She looks a serious horse.
In Sydney we see Golden Slipper winner Vancouver resuming in the San Domenico, but he’s got a bit of history against him. Looking at the last ten editions, no horse has carried more than 56kgs, while he’s got the full weight of 60kgs on his back.
It’s also not really a race for those that have had success as two-year-olds, and the favourite often comes unstuck. Haptic and Redzel might be the two to have a nibble on if looking outside the Slipper winner.
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