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A week is a long time in rugby. Just ask the All Blacks and the Springboks.
The All Blacks came into the Sydney Test against the Wallabies with the confidence of defeating the Springboks at Ellis Park.
The Springboks, although defeated, had played splendidly for about 60 minutes in a much better performance than they gave in a last-minute defeat to the Wallabies at Brisbane.
A week later, the All Blacks have been defeated by a resurgent Wallabies side that has won all three of its Tests this season. And the Springboks were thrashed 37-25 by an impressive Pumas side.
The Springboks have now lost four straight Tests for the first time since 2010 and four in a row against four different opponents since 1965, according to OPTA facts.
To my eyes, the Wallabies’ victory against the All Blacks at Sydney was as impressive as their victories against the All Blacks at Sydney in 1991 and 1999. The 1991 and 1999 victories were augurs of a triumphant Rugby World Cup tournament.
Both those victories were followed by tight losses to the All Blacks at Eden Park. But the confidence gained from beating the All Blacks, admittedly with the home ground advantage, gave the Wallabies and their coaches Bob Dwyer and Rod Macqueen the confidence to set a target of winning the Webb Ellis trophy.
As Chris Laidlaw pointed out in The Roar earlier this week, Wallaby sides flourish on confidence.
For the 2015 Wallabies, there must be an inner confidence that comes from the knowledge that in all the crucial areas of the Test, the set pieces and especially the scrums, the collisions at the breakdown and a resilience at the end of the Test with the ‘finishers’, they were much better than the All Blacks.
The All Black selectors are faced with the possibility, indeed the probability according to All Black bashers like Mark Reason and Chris Rattue, that their greatest players might be well on the slippery slope of rugby mediocrity.
Wayne Smith, in Friday’s The Australian, has an interesting article about the possibility that Dan Carter and Conrad Smith might be playing for their places in the World Cup squad.
Carter, particularly, was off his game at Sydney. He missed touch from a penalty, was inaccurate at the kickoff and nearly had two conversions charged down. The pressure from the chasers was enough to make him miss both kicks as he hurried through with his striking of the ball.
Incidentally, Stephen Larkham is the only player I have seen charge down a conversion in a Test. One would imagine that the Wallabies’ harassing of Carter, who likes to kick in a deliberate manner, was inspired by a Larkham suggestion.
The All Blacks were quick to announce their team for Eden Park, on Wednesday rather than on the traditional Thursday. The message in this, I would think, is that they did not want to be dictated to by Michael Cheika’s selections. There was also the element of making the statement that the heart and soul team that has performed so brilliantly over the last four years has one more glorious campaign left in it.
Essentially, all the great veteran All Blacks players who have been part of the 2011 Rugby World Cup victory and 37 straight home Test victories have been given a chance to play one more Test in New Zealand, either as starters or as reserves: Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith.
The New Zealand Rugby Union media statement announcing the side made the point that despite the team’s great experience it had an average age of 27. There was also an exciting young player Nehe Milner-Skudder playing in only his second Test, after scoring two tries against the Wallabies on debut.
Cheika’s response to the All Blacks selection was to select a side that is very different from the squad that defeated the All Blacks at Sydney.
He has kept his Sydney front row. Will Skelton comes back in the second row. Wycliff Palu replaces David Pocock at No.8. Where in Sydney Cheika’s Wallabies beat the All Blacks with the pace of their pack, at Auckland Cheika is banking on over-powering the All Blacks in the tight-loose game.
The hero finisher at Sydney, Nic White, starts at half back. Quade Cooper and Matt Toomua are the five-eighths. Toomua is no surprise. But Cooper?
Cheika clearly is playing mind games with the All Blacks, and with his own team. Cooper failed dismally in the semi-final of the 2011 Rugby World Cup. Cheika has given him a chance of redemption. He has also provided the All Blacks with the challenge of trying to read Cooper’s often mercurial play-making.
And in a sort of cunning way he has put himself in a no-lose situation. If this particular Wallaby side loses, the All Blacks still know that the Sydney side, especially with Michael Hooper and David Pocock playing together, and with Dean Mumm in the second row, is a different beast that has defeated them.
Of course, the new look Wallabies could make their own history and defeat the All Blacks at Eden Park for the first time since 1986.
The pundits and the New Zealand public will go beserk with grief if the All Blacks lose. But it needs to be remembered that they lost their last two Tests before the 2011 Rugby World Cup tournament. More importantly, if the old stars have really faded, there are some brilliant younger players like Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekatoa, Casey Laulala and Sam Cane ready to step into the starting side.
The Springboks do not have this sort of luxury of talents. Heyneke Meyer has placed too much emphasis since the 2011 Rugby World Cup on maintaining the older players, some of whom starred in the 2007 Rugby World Cup, rather than blood youngsters.
An example of this reluctance to trust the new generation of star players saw Meyer push Jesse Kriel to the wing, after his dazzling centre play against the Wallabies and the All Blacks. Jean de Villiers was restored to the outside centre position where he was found wanting by the Pumas.
De Villiers, who is a fine man and has been a great Springbok, has broken his jaw and must be in doubt for the 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament. Kriel, presumably, will be restored to the centres, where he should be whether De Villiers is available or not.
When Meyer did bring in a young prop, Vincent Koch, he was obliterated by the Pumas last weekend. This is yet another example of a wilful and poorly advised selection policy that has created a situation where Meyer was forced to publicly apologise to South Africans following the Pumas’ victory.
A measure of the lack of attack from the Springboks is that they carried the ball 110 times against the Pumas and made a break every 22 carries!
The Pumas managed eight clean breaks from only 67 carries.
The last two times the Springboks played the Pumas at Velez Sarsfield they scored 39 points in 2004 and 34 points in 2005.
You would think that the Springboks need to perform along these score lines to have any great confidence going into the 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament.
The Pumas are in the All Blacks’ pool. If they play to the standard they attained last week, this could be a double-whammy weekend for New Zealand rugby.