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Has there ever been a more poorly rated team to be two games clear on top of the ladder than the Fremantle Dockers?
Hawthorn are the even money favourites for the flag, and are expected to dominate again at the business end of the season. Given they have won the past two premierships, kicked cricket scores against Fremantle and Sydney recently, plus accounted for West Coast over in Perth, the point of view is fair enough.
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The Eagles continue to impress while winning, and they’ve beaten some of the best teams in the last few months, but arguably gained the most credibility with a recent loss to the Hawks.
The funny thing about West Coast is they seem to get even better the more players they lose. It has been a truly remarkable performance by Adam Simpson and his coaching group.
Sydney have been on the nose for a while now, but still have the Buddy factor to keep them in the conversation. It is, however, hard not to think that list management has gone wildly astray at the Swans, which is going to cost them in both the immediate and short term.
The Dogs are fulfilling that cliché of being everyone’s second team, playing the most dazzling free-spirited football, and the buzz about their legitimacy as a premiership threat is building by the week.
Although, on the Dogs, the quirk of the fixture has meant they haven’t played a side in the current top eight since Round 7. That’s over three months ago! They’ve been able to build momentum by beating up on the weaker teams, and confidence is a wonderful thing.
Even the Tigers have been given a fluker’s hope of going all the way, given their impressive record against some of the competition heavyweights.
But no-one wants to talk about the Dockers, unless it’s to write them off.
Fremantle were only missing a few members of their confirmed best 22 in their loss to West Coast on Sunday, the structurally important Luke McPharlin and Zac Dawson, and small forward Hayden Ballantyne, who had been having a disappointing year before injury struck.
The Dockers had a hot start to the year, but have been largely unimpressive for well over two months now. Ross Lyon famously demands much from his players, with the highest of training standards and a game style of high attrition.
Is it possible that their best players are playing tired?
We think of Freo as a high stoppage team, and the Hawks with their free-flowing skill and expansive play.
Yet the Dockers have won 804 clearances this year, while Hawthorn have 794. The difference is negligible after 20 rounds of football. It’s generally accepted this is where the most punishment happens, a fair enough assumption, particularly in the event of repeat stoppages where no clearance is recorded.
Sam Mitchell is the Hawks’ leading clearance player, with 97 to his name. Jordan Lewis is next in line with 79, followed by a host of players between 50 and 60.
Fremantle’s numbers are not nearly so well spread out, with too few players sharing the load.
Nat Fyfe and David Mundy lead the way, naturally, with 148 and 136 respectively, with Lachie Neale not long past his 22nd birthday, next with 108. That’s a lot of bash-and-crash compared to their Hawk counterparts over the course of a long season.
The three clearance Dockers have also laid 249 tackles between them. The top three clearance Hawks again have far fewer between them, with 178. We can only imagine how much less toll is being taken on the key Hawthorn playmakers.
Lachie Neale is also second at Freo for uncontested possession, top five at the club in both rebound and inside 50s. Is the young gun being asked to do too much, inside and outside, covering all that territory, taking all those hits, in only his fourth season?
Much has been made of the versatility of the Hawks, in the number of players they have that are able to play different roles. Is this as much about the freshness of their best men come finals time as it is about the team being more dangerous and unpredictable?
Does Ross Lyon have less faith in his foot soldiers than Alastair Clarkson does in his? Perhaps the talent level at Fremantle doesn’t run as deep as their ladder position suggests.
That is seen as the beauty of Lyon though, coaching a system that can stand up regardless of personnel. We’ve seen him get his teams into finals, but not quite be able to go all the way.
His Saints were blown away in the 2010 grand final replay after being desperately unlucky not to win the week before. His Dockers last year looked tired and spent when going out of the finals in straight sets.
This season, Freo haven’t been at their sharpest for quite some time. Has Lyon found a way to have a mid-season lull, which will see his team at their absolute zenith in September (and the first week of October)?
Hopefully for Dockers fans, the latter will turn out to be the case. But they’d want to see more signs of life than they currently are.