Spring racing is certainly in the air given the quality of horse represented in the Warwick Stakes, which is Race 6 at Randwick on Saturday (3:40pm AEST).
This famous old race is run over 1400m under weight for age conditions, and dates way back to 1923.
During that time the venue has alternated almost exclusively between Randwick and Warwick Farm racecourses, with the only exception being the year 2000 when it was staged at the Canterbury circuit.
We get our first look at some major Spring players here with the likes of Pornichet, Kermadec and First Seal resuming, but they give a fitness edge away to capable gallopers Burbero and Messene.
Race tempo
Interestingly, trainer Bjorn Baker has once again entered Zaratone as he did in the Expressway Stakes recently. He is virtually incapable of winning in this class, and probably lacks the stamina to run 1400m, but he should set a decent speed, and test the fitness credentials of those who are resuming from a spell. Messene should sit off Zaratone and get the run of the race from Barrier 1.
Aside from that pairing there doesn’t appear to be a lot of other speed in the race, but it does give Blake Shinn aboard Pornichet the option of going forward from an awkward barrier.
Four-year-old mare First Seal will start a warm favourite in the race, but I’m not sure that’s warranted. She is yet to win a race outside of her own sex, and only the great Sunline in 1999 has been able to win this race for the fairer sex in the past 40 years. First Seal might get the ideal run from Barrier 6, but I would be keen to take much less than $3.50 about her to win.
Glen Boss will have only his second ride on Kermadec after piloting him to a pretty soft win in the Doncaster Mile back in April. Boss was effusive in his praise of the horse that day and will be keen to keep his unbeaten record on Kermadec intact. He should appreciate the track and the distance first up, and has more exposure at this level than First Seal, so I’m not sure why is there such a disparity in price between the two. Chris Waller rarely has his best horses primed to win first up but maybe we are looking at an exception?
It’s hard to see Pornichet performing badly. He has continued to improve under the tutelage of Gai Waterhouse, and has some residual fitness from the Brisbane winter to boost his chances. He was well beaten by Kermadec in the Doncaster conceding him 1kg, but remember that the track was wet that day and Pornichet looked a decided risk in such conditions.
If he is to be a major contender for the Cox Plate this Spring then he has to go close to winning a race like this. He can be ahead of First Seal and Kermadec in the early stages, and he has that little bit of x-factor about him – an ability to accelerate quickly from up on the pace, or sustain a long run at speed from a midfield position.
Burbero has to be respected given he is the winner of 13 races, and he does have a 50 per cent strike rate on Good rated tracks, and with this sort of break between runs (8-14 days). Oddly though, his 1200m stats are far better than those at 1400m, and he is yet to run a place in four starts at this track and distance. They would seem his only negatives, along with the fact that this is a better quality field than the one he beat in the Expressway. He likes to drift back in his races, and stablemate Zaratone should set a decent enough speed for him to come into the race late. Barrier 4 does him no favours though, given his record is better from middle and wider draws.
Messene should take benefit from his first-up run in the Expressway, where he looked the winner halfway down the straight. He has failed to win at four weight for age starts, and it’s now six starts since he has actually won a race. The positive for him is that from 10 starts on right-handed tracks, and on good to dead going, he has won eight, and placed in another (second at WFA). His last start 1.5 length defeat (when placed fifth) is his worst run in those circumstances. He can beat Burbero home this time, and he may well look the winner again down the straight.
It’s Somewhat is an interesting runner in the Godolphin stable of John O’Shea, who has a knack of getting the best out of imports. He actually did win on debut here in a handicap, before an ordinary run in the WFA Ryder Stakes. He was later scratched from the Doncaster Mile, and hasn’t been seen since. Two of his three wins have been first up, and the other came after more than a month away from racing, so it’s possible we could see a big run from him in this race. WFA is a query but our stocks are pretty low at the moment in that department. I’d have to say $6.50-$7.50 doesn’t seem great value at present, but conversely it could be a positive sign as to his chances.
Royal Descent should run an honest race, but she has really become an enigma for punters. She is undeniably top class, but after winning four of her first seven races she hasn’t managed to win another in 18 attempts. First up isn’t her best scenario, and I’d be happy to watch her go around in this.
There are a few other runners resuming at big odds here, including last Autumn’s Australian Oaks Winner Gust Of Wind and the 2013 VRC Derby runner-up Complacent (also engaged R7), but they might find a few of these others a bit too classy.
Conclusion
The $9 odds about Pornichet will definitely look overs if he takes up a forward position early. That would look a good option from a wide barrier and give him an advantage over those that look his biggest dangers. If he wins this, or even goes close to winning, we aren’t likely to see these odds again during the Spring.
I’m expecting a big run from Kermadec with Glen Boss aboard. This horse hasn’t had a great deal of luck in his career thus far (excepting the Doncaster win), but his ideal barrier could make the difference between a win and a loss.
Messene seems overpriced considering he has had the one run back this preparation, and he should get first crack at the leader on straightening. It’s probably D-Day for him at this level, but a good run would still see him well in the market for a race like the Epsom where he would drop significantly in weight.
I can’t have First Seal at an opening quote of $2.70 but have to respect the market opinion all the same. She should be well placed from a decent barrier and has enough class to win.
Despite some suspect statistics, Burbero should run well again at nice odds. It’s an interesting ploy by trainer Bjorn Baker to be running stablemate Zaratone again, and one that proved successful in the Expressway.
I’ll be backing Pornichet and Messene at perceived value odds, and maybe saving on Kermadec too. The first four below wouldn’t seem a bad option either, although there are many other horses capable of getting into the placings.
1. Pornichet
2. Kermadec
3. Messene
4. First Seal
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
