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Why the All Blacks struggle to win World Cups

25th August, 2015
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The brains trust (Photo: Tim Anger)
Roar Guru
25th August, 2015
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2934 Reads

Chokers. This is the tag that has been applied to the All Blacks at all World Cups since 1991.

In spite of usually being the best team in the world and favourites to win nearly every World Cup, the All Blacks have only won it twice in seven attempts.

Are they chokers? Or are there other reasons the All Blacks struggle to win World Cups?

Choking implies that in spite of being the favourites, a team clams up and plays below their usual level, allowing an inferior side to beat them. Choking means the inferior side still plays at its inferior level, but the better team loses because of their own failings, not because the other team played better.

If we examine each of the All Black World Cup losses, a pattern suggests the All Blacks don’t choke, but instead are just beaten by a team who plays better on the day.

The New Zealand public expects the All Blacks to win every game they play. This expectation is felt so heavily by All Blacks that every Test match is significant and the All Blacks are better motivated than their opponents and usually win.

However, at World Cups it becomes different.

Every other team considers the knock-out games of a World Cup to be significant and they raise their game – particularly when they play New Zealand.

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All nations realise that in order to win the World Cup they must beat the All Blacks, therefore in large part they base their plan for winning the cup around beating New Zealand.

To win the title, the All Blacks must play three teams in the knockout rounds who have focused their entire game plan and motivation on beating them. It is no coincidence that after three of the four losses the All Blacks have suffered before the final, the team that beat them went on to lose their next game.

France and Australia had already achieved their aims in those tournaments by beating the All Blacks and didn’t have anything left to actually win the title.

In 1991, the All Blacks were probably joint favourites with Australia, but co-coaches who couldn’t work together, and some complacency in the All Blacks meant Australia were actually the best team in the tournament.

They deservedly beat New Zealand in the semi-final and went on to win the title. The All Blacks did not choke, they were simply not the best team.

In 1995, the All Blacks were clearly the best team at the tournament. Whether you believe conspiracy theories or not, the fact remains that 10 of the 15 All Black starters had been extremely ill in the days prior to the final.

Brian Lochore, the All Black manager on the morning of the final, looked at the state of the players and considered they were going to lose to South Africa by more than 30 points.

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The fact they were holding on to a 12-12 draw at full time shows what a great side they were. They did not choke.

In 1999, the All Blacks were again the team to beat. After their semi-final win, Australia were already resigned to coming second, not knowing how they were going to beat the All Blacks in the final. To their amazement, the next day France came up with one of the most incredible halves of rugby ever played to upset the favourites and advance to the final – and duly lose.

For half an hour the French raised their game to a sublime level beyond what the All Blacks were capable of, and even though the All Blacks played well for most of the game, they still lost. The All Blacks did not choke, they lost to a better team on the day.

In 2003, the All Blacks were probably joint favourites with England. Australia had played poorly up to the semi-final and were not expected to offer much resistance to the All Blacks. However, knowing their home World Cup was on the line and with nothing to lose, Australia raised their game to a level beyond the All Black performance on the day.

Of all the World Cup losses, this is probably the closest the All Blacks have come to a choke, as they did not play at their usual high standard. Yet again, the team that beat the All Blacks went on to lose their next game, indicating that the raising of standards was a one-off, simply to play the All Blacks.

In 2007, an otherwise average French team again raised themselves for a one-off performance against the tournament favourites, this time aided by one of the most inept refereeing performances of the professional era.

Wayne Barnes has since become an excellent referee, but at the age of 28, one year after his Test debut, a World Cup quarter-final between the hosts and the favourites was beyond his experience and capabilities.

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The All Blacks did not choke, they were beaten by a combination of a team that had raised their game massively, not a single refereeing decision going in their favour in the second half, and the team leadership failing to appreciate the refereeing failures and change the plan to win the game without penalty kicks.

In 2011, the All Blacks could almost be accused of choking in the second half of the final, but on this occasion a more sympathetic referee and an even more average French team allowed them to escape.

So, in essence, at World Cups the All Blacks become victims of their own success.

To win a World Cup they must raise their own game to a level beyond that of each of the teams they play in the knockout rounds, who are guaranteed to be raising their game far beyond their normal capabilities, simply because they are playing the best team.

At the upcoming World Cup, where the top five or six teams are now very close, can the All Blacks raise their game three times to a higher level than a team with nothing to lose?

They won’t choke, as they are not chokers, but their opponents may raise their game.

With less at stake you could bet your house on the All Blacks, but at a World Cup all bets are off.

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