I don’t have a crystal ball and haven’t chatted to Nostradamus for years, but I’ll cheekily take a shot at predicting who will be included in the Springbok squad before coach Heyneke Meyer announces it.
Judging from the past, Meyer hasn’t got the political guts to make hard choices. I am not talking about racial quotas, just his record of taking conservative decisions.
Meyer has been big on ‘experience’, and appears to believe that the opposition can be buried under the sheer weight of caps. Experience, not form, is more important is his view.
The old sporting cliché ‘form is temporary and class permanent’ is true to a point. However, there is nothing to say that an in-form player’s performances will necessarily dip.
While experience is an asset, it isn’t everything. Getting older is also a permanent condition and Old Man Time catches up with everyone eventually.
Victor Matfield is a case in point. Much is said about his lineout skills and his more than 120 Test caps, but little from his fans concerning his painfully slow pace in general play.
The Springboks have done well with Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth at lock, so why play the 38-year-old Matfield? Experience is the answer. So Meyer will go with Matfield when the going gets tough in the World Cup. I suspect, too, that he retreaded Pieter-Steph du Toit as a loose forward for the Argentina Test so he could justify choosing Matfield at lock.
The Springboks coach will follow the same line over the captaincy. Jean de Villiers is his first-choice captain and apparently Matfield is the stand-in.
As for a calm head for the captaincy, there are several other players, such as Duane Vermeulen and even Schalk Burger, both far younger and with enough experience to lead.
In his comeback from injury, De Villiers didn’t do enough to justify a place ahead of the centre pairing of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel. But Meyer will go with De Villiers. Why? Experience.
It’s not a case of either experience or form. You need both. In any case, just how much experience does a player need? Rugby is not rocket science. Although De Allende and Kriel are newbies to Test rugby, they have experience in other forms of the game and I doubt they would let the Springboks down.
Because of Meyer’s failure to bring through younger players in the past few years, he is left relying on the old brigade, some of them survivors from the 2011 World Cup squad and even the winning 2007 one.
However, Meyer appears happy to rely on the inexperienced Handre Pollard at flyhalf, who has a handful of caps, with Pat Lambie as his other option. Lambie does have more than 40 Test caps, but he has been given scant game time over the years.
Will Morne Steyn be in the squad? I wouldn’t be surprised. Apparently, he has been playing well for French club Stade Francais, but why pick Morne? He is a kicking machine, but another player who’s past his best days.
Meyer’s decision to bolster his winning percentage by relying on ageing players has seriously undermined our chances. In contrast, both the All Blacks and the Wallabies have been bringing through younger players, giving them Test experience, and now have far better options.
Like other South African fans, I am hoping for the best in the battle for the Webb Ellis Trophy starting next month.
What would Nostradamus have said? Who knows? I just hope that my predictions won’t have him turning in his grave.
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