The 2015 Rugby World Cup kicks off on September 18, with England against Fiji at Twickenham. There are matches to be played, pools to be contested, and quarter-final priorities to be sorted out.
The Wallabies are in the ‘Pool of Death’, where four teams ranked in the top 10 have been drawn – Australia, England, Wales and Fiji.
The draw was done in 2012, and would be more evenly spread if it was redone today. Apparently that mistake will not be repeated.
Nevertheless, the winner of the pool will be match-hardened and progress with an easier quarter-final and semi-final as recompense.
It’s been four years since the last World Cup, and as George Gregan told the All Blacks after their 2003 semi-final loss to the Wallabies in Sydney, “four more years” to wait for the chance to atone.
An interesting Rugby World Cup statistic is that no team has successfully defended their title. Australia come the closest in 2003, losing by a drop-goal in extra-time to England after winning the trophy in 1999 at Twickenham. England then lost to South Africa in the 2007 final.
New Zealand won the inaugural Rugby World Cup, in Australia and New Zealand in 1987, with the final played at home in Auckland’s Eden Park. But in 1991, Australia unleashed the magic of David Campese in the Dublin semi-final to send the All Blacks packing.
Australia was a rising force that year, while New Zealand had had a virtually unbeaten run since their 1987 triumph, only suffering a 19-all draw with Australia at Ballymore in July 1988, and then two losses to the Wallabies in August 1990 at Athletic Park Wellington (21-9) in August 1991 at the Sydney Football Stadium (21-12).
South Africa grabbed the trophy in 1995 but by 1998 Australia had a new coach in Rod Macqueen. The Wallabies defeated the All Blacks 3-0 in their Test matches that year, and in 1999 it was 1-1 between the two nations. There appeared to be momentum for both sides.
Macqueen was a strong coach with players totally committed to the common cause, and this was a telling factor in Australia’s victory at the 1999 World Cup. New Zealand did not look as settled, and had not fully rebuilt after the retirement of many great players; they seemed to be treading water.
In 2003 England were the rising team, having beaten New Zealand 31-28 at Twickenham in November 2002, and 15-13 at Westpac Stadium in Wellington in 2003, both one-off Test matches.
New Zealand had the better of both South Africa and Australia in 2003, and the general feeling was that the true pecking order would be reestablished and New Zealand would defeat England in the final in Sydney.
The Wallabies got in the way, however, and beat New Zealand in the semi-final 22-10. England went on to win the 2003 final, defeating Australia.
In 2007, New Zealand were knocked over by France 20-18 in the semi-final, while Australia went out to eventual finalists England in the quarter-finals. South Africa had previously tied 1-1 in their two-Test series with the All Blacks, winning the final Test 30-28 in Dunedin, which was a big confidence booster and their platform for winning the 2007 World Cup.
South Africa had the momentum, but why not Australia, who had also beaten New Zealand in their last Test played that year? South Africa appeared to be a settled team with a good mixture of youth and experience, had a good coach who the players believed in, and had a plan for success. Australia at the time had still not fully rebuilt after their 1999 win and 2003 final loss. Notwithstanding their defeat of New Zealand that year, they were a team on a downward trend.
In 2011, the All Blacks had tied 1-1 with both Australia and South Africa in the winter Test matches played that year, and lost the last one in both cases. New Zealand had, however, beaten South Africa 40-7 in Wellington, and Australia 30-14 at Eden Park Auckland.
There was a missionary zeal in New Zealand for a 2011 Rugby World Cup victory on home soil, and this was the impetus for seriously focusing on their preparation.
Graham Henry was still the coach, though there had been a transformation of systems and support for the All Blacks, and Henry left on a high after the winning the 2011 World Cup.
There appears to be four elements required for World Cup victory.
Firstly, a strong coach and coaching system, with the full belief and commitment of the players.
Secondly, the team needs to have strong performances in the current year.
Thirdly, there needs to be a good mixture of youth and experience.
Fourthly, the team can’t be the reigning champions.
The last is controversial, but since it is still to be achieved it’s valid. The All Blacks are the obvious loser if that trend continues, and having not won the World Cup away from New Zealand it is another potential negative for them.
Nevertheless, New Zealand are always the benchmark, so recent form against the Kiwis is the true indicator of the likely contenders.
There is one other common factor, and that is that only teams at the top of the International Rugby rankings are a real chance. New Zealand, Ireland, Australia, South Africa and England are the only threats this year, and of those five, only Ireland have not won a Rugby World Cup, but feature because of their strong form over the last two years.
Neither England nor South Africa’s form has been good enough, and their coaching set-ups, player belief and distinct game plan all go against them. Danny Cipriani showed glimpses of how the English could possibly step up in the loss to France last Saturday, but they invariably freeze on the big stage, and regress to a tight game plan. Will Cipriani get a run-on anyway? It is their uncertain game plan that has brought them down in the past.
No such problem existed in 2003. It was unrelenting forward power and precision first and foremost. Last Saturday’s English forward power was a shadow of the heady days of 2003.
South Africa are always very hard to beat at a World Cup, but they lack certainty about what they are doing and how they should do it. Is it to be a physical assault, or will Handre Pollard unleash Damien de Allende and Jesse Kriel, with Willie Le Roux stepping in to finish off by putting Bryan Habana and JP Pieterson away?
They don’t seem sure. There are a few too many balls in the air for the South Africans.
I have ruled New Zealand out on a statistical technicality, it seems, but there is just a hint that their playing roster has a few players who may have hung on just a dash too long. It wasn’t a problem for them in their last match at Eden Park, beating the Wallabies, but that was a home match fired up by the previous week’s loss in Sydney.
Ireland or Australia could win the Rugby World Cup. They best satisfy all the criteria, so it is very possible that one of those two teams will win. That does not mean that they will play each other in the final, however.
May the best team win!
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