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Adelaide's Dangerfield dilemma: Do they match a rival offer?

Expert
26th August, 2015
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Expert
26th August, 2015
23
1465 Reads

The AFL’s off-season player movement period has become busier and busier in recent years and it looks like 2015 will be the biggest yet, with the headline act the likely movement of Patrick Dangerfield.

Dangerfield has been considered on the AFL’s elite midfielders since his breakout 2012 season – he has finished in the top 10 of the Brownlow Medal in every year since, and has been named All Australian twice.

On top of that, his 2015 season has probably been his best yet – he’s averaging career-best disposals numbers and has nearly doubled his best tackling numbers.

He should win Adelaide’s best and fairest this year, will almost certainly be All Australian again, and will enter the Brownlow Medal count as an outside-but-not-unrealistic chance.

Despite all that, he looks a near certainty to be in other colours in 2016, and rumours have persisted for nearly a year that Dangerfield is set to leave the Crows via free agency this year. As such, some even suggested Adelaide should have traded him away at the end of 2014 in order to at least get decent compensation for his departure.

Melbourne reportedly offered the second and third picks in the 2014 national draft – certainly better compensation than Adelaide will receive if he leaves this year – but that was soundly knocked back by the Crows.

Geelong is the most likely destination for Dangerfield. He hails from nearby Moggs Creek and played with the Geelong Falcons in TAC Cup before he was drafted. If the Cats land Dangerfield, they’ll have arguably the best midfield duo in the comp between him and Joel Selwood.

Dangerfield’s at the top of a big free agency shopping list for the Cats, with rumours they’re also keen on West Coast’s Scott Selwood (brother of Joel) and Brisbane’s Matthew Leuenberger.

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Just about every other Victorian club are also said to have some interest in Dangerfield, with Hawthorn, Richmond and Collingwood the most commonly named.

While Crows fans would love Dangerfield to re-sign with Adelaide, the saga has dragged on long enough that you’d think if he had any intention of signing, he’d have done so by now.

The real curiosity is what might happen when Dangerfield moves to sign with another club – as there is a genuine chance that, for the first time in AFL free agency history, Adelaide might match the offer.

As a restricted free agent, Dangerfield has the right to accept a contract offer from another club, but before he can move Adelaide have a three-day period in which they can either match the offer from that club, or allow Dangerfield to move on.

If they match the offer, Dangerfield can either sign with the Crows and stay, or his club of choice will have to pony up an acceptable trade.

Lots of free agents have moved clubs since the doors first opened in 2012, but as yet no club has attempted to match the offer on a restricted free agent, generally taking the stance that if players don’t want to be at the club then they should be let go, and also knowing that the compensation picks they will receive will likely outweigh what they could get through a trade.

If Adelaide lose Dangerfield they will certainly receive a first-round pick in compensation, which will be tied to their draft position, meaning it’d likely be around pick 12 or so, depending on the final results of the season.

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That’d be about on par with what St Kilda got for Brendon Goddard (pick #12 in 2012 draft) and what Collingwood got for Dale Thomas (pick #11 in 2013 draft), but well below what Melbourne got for James Frawley (pick #3 in 2014) – despite Dangerfield being a far bigger loss than any of those players.

For that reason alone, Adelaide should match Dangerfield’s offer, and force the other club into a trade. That’s an even more appealing option given that the AFL will this year, for the first time, allow for the trading of future draft picks.

Say Geelong finish ninth for the year and have pick #10 in the draft, and Adelaide finish eighth and have pick #11. Geelong make an offer, Dangerfield accepts. If Adelaide let Dangerfield go then they receive pick #12 in return and are still behind Geelong in the draft order – not something they’d be too happy with, given they’ve just lost their best player to them.

However, if Adelaide match the offer, they could demand that Geelong trade them not only their first round pick for the coming draft, but also their first rounder for 2016.

Not only do they net so much more value out of the trade, they have the added satisfaction of taking something back from Geelong in return.

Player movement in the AFL is undergoing rapid change, and the case of Patrick Dangerfield may wind up being the biggest example of this yet. Along with a lot of other expected movements this October, it’s going to make for a dramatic and entertaining off-season.

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