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Predicting the premiers: Is it the Cowboys, Roosters or Dogs?

26th August, 2015
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Moses Mbye of the Bulldogs. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Expert
26th August, 2015
115
2442 Reads

Two rounds to go and I reckon the final eight is all but set after the Sea Eagles went down to the Eels.  

Of course, this is the fourth time I’ve written Manly off, and they’ve ignored all of my prognostications to date. However, refusing to learn from history, I’m going to exclude them from my number crunching efforts to establish this year’s premier.

I have ranked each side on attacking and defensive statistics to arrive at an overall rank for each of the contenders.

The side with the best cumulative rank will be the predicted premier.

Tries Scored

Rank Tries Scored Average per game
1 BRISBANE 92 4.2
2 NORTH QUEENSLAND 91 4.1
3 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 88 4.0
4 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 87 3.9
5 SOUTH SYDNEY 78 3.5
6 MELBOURNE 77 3.5
7 CRONULLA 69 3.1
8 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 61 2.8
NRL 1235 3.5

There is a distinct gap between the ‘can scores’ and the ‘can’t scores’. The Broncos, Cowboys, Dogs and Roosters can all cross the stripe regularly. The Storm and the Rabbitohs are okay. However, the Sharks struggle and the Dragons are the lowest try scorers in the NRL this season.

Tries Conceded

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Rank Tries Conceded Average Tries Conceded
1 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 51 2.3
2 MELBOURNE 58 2.6
3 BRISBANE 60 2.7
4 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 62 2.8
5 CRONULLA 72 3.3
6 SOUTH SYDNEY 72 3.3
7 NORTH QUEENSLAND 74 3.4
8 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 78 3.5
NRL 1235 3.5

All of the top-eight sides are better than – or equal to – the NRL average for tries conceded. The Roosters have been typically miserly in defence this season. This stat is also the one where the Dragons and Storm shine. However, as seen in the previous table, neither have been prolific scorers this season.

And while the Cowboys surely know how to lay on lots of tries, they can certainly be scored on.

Line breaks made

Rank Line breaks made Average per game
1 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 112 5.1
2 NORTH QUEENSLAND 110 5.0
3 BRISBANE 109 5.0
4 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 103 4.7
5 SOUTH SYDNEY 102 4.6
6 MELBOURNE 95 4.3
7 CRONULLA 86 3.9
8 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 75 3.4
NRL 1497 4.3

The top four and bottom four for this stat are the same as tries scored. At the end of the day, while a good defence is key to getting to the finals, it is the sides that can score the points when it counts that win premierships.

I fully expect the premiers to come from one of the top four in this statistic.

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Line breaks conceded

Rank line breaks conceded Average per game
1 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 62 2.8
2 MELBOURNE 69 3.1
3 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 76 3.5
4 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 78 3.5
5 BRISBANE 79 3.6
6 CRONULLA 85 3.9
7 SOUTH SYDNEY 87 4.0
8 NORTH QUEENSLAND 97 4.4
NRL 1497 4.3

This is the Cowboys’ Achilles heel: they are clearly the worst of all the contenders for leaking line breaks. As we saw above, that carries over into conceding the second most tries of the top eight.

Once more the Roosters’ miserly defence is on display here. Further, last season the Rabbitohs were the very best in this stat, now they are the second worst.

Tackle breaks made

Rank Tackle breaks made Average per game
1 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 731 33.2
2 NORTH QUEENSLAND 660 30.0
3 SOUTH SYDNEY 650 29.5
4 CRONULLA 635 28.9
5 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 627 28.5
6 BRISBANE 601 27.3
7 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 563 25.6
8 MELBOURNE 548 24.9
NRL 9508 27

The Roosters are the clear leader in this stat, with the Dogs and Storm clearly the worst.

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Tackle breaks are a key stat, as they demonstrate a team’s determination and effort. 2014 grand finalists the Rabbitohs and the Dogs were second and third respectively for this stat, and the Roosters number one in 2013.

Missed Tackles

Rank misses Average misses per game
1 MELBOURNE 489 22.2
2 SOUTH SYDNEY 507 23.0
3 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 512 23.3
4 BRISBANE 519 23.6
5 NORTH QUEENSLAND 535 24.3
6 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 545 24.8
7 CRONULLA 568 25.8
8 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 575 26.1
NRL Average 9510 27

Just when you were starting to wonder how the Storm were in the top eight we get to their awesome defence. While their ability to score tries has been on a nose dive since Billy Slater got injured, Craig Bellamy’s rock-solid defence is still there, with Cooper Cronk behind it barking orders.

Note that all top-eight sides are under the season average for missed tackles per game, and also note the Roosters’ propensity for missing tackles, but not line breaks or tries.

Metres gained per game

Rank metres gained Average per game
1 NORTH QUEENSLAND 34453 1566
2 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 34260 1557
3 CRONULLA 31864 1448
4 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 31592 1436
5 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 31516 1433
6 BRISBANE 31329 1424
7 MELBOURNE 30465 1385
8 SOUTH SYDNEY 30060 1366
NRL Average 495139 1407
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The Cows and the Roosters are the king metre-eaters in 2015, but the loss of Jared Waerea-Hargreave – and possibly James Tamou – could dent these stats. Interestingly, the Sharks and the Dragons are next best.

The Storm have struggled for go-forward this season, as have the Rabbitohs, who have really missed Ben Te’o and Sam Burgess.

Run Metres Conceded

Rank metres conceded Average metres conceded
1 NORTH QUEENSLAND 28763 1307.4
2 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 29798 1354.5
3 CRONULLA 29925 1360.2
4 SOUTH SYDNEY 30494 1386.1
5 MELBOURNE 30766 1398.5
6 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 31231 1419.6
7 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 32078 1458.1
8 BRISBANE 32556 1479.8
NRL Average 495139 1406.6

And here is the Broncos’ weakness: they concede well over the NRL average per game in metres. When their front row lost Josh McGuire I certainly questioned whether they could match it up front with the other contenders in making metres. However, the real impact may actually be that they can’t stop other sides making them. While their defence has been superb this season, they can’t afford to be leaking this many metres a game in the finals.

Once more the Cowboys and the Roosters lead a stat. Note the Sharks’ good showing here too.

Penalties Conceded

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Rank penalties conceded Average per game
1 BRISBANE 110 5.0
2 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 124 5.6
3 NORTH QUEENSLAND 126 5.7
4 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 136 6.2
5 MELBOURNE 142 6.5
6 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 144 6.5
7 CRONULLA 144 6.5
8 SOUTH SYDNEY 154 7.0
NRL Average 2292 6.5

The Roosters are traditionally the side that concedes the most penalties, but not this season. The Rabbitohs – who many believe are treated favourably by the whistle blowers – have easily been the most penalised of the contenders.

Brisbane seems to be the refs’ pets this year. Both the Roosters and the Dogs are well below their averages from last season.

Penalties Received

Rank penalties awarded Average per game
1 CRONULLA 174 7.9
2 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 154 7.0
3 MELBOURNE 147 6.7
4 SOUTH SYDNEY 146 6.6
5 NORTH QUEENSLAND 138 6.3
6 BRISBANE 129 5.9
7 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 127 5.8
8 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 124 5.6
NRL Average 2292 6.5

The Dogs and the Roosters – like last season – are still having trouble being awarded penalties. Along with the Cowboys and the Broncos, they have drawn fewer than the NRL average a game in penalties – unlike the Sharks, who are averaging 2.5 more penalties per game awarded to them than last season.

Errors made

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Rank Total errors Average errors
1 MELBOURNE 202 9.2
2 NORTH QUEENSLAND 203 9.2
3 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 209 9.5
4 BRISBANE 212 9.6
5 SOUTH SYDNEY 215 9.8
6 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 219 10.0
7 CRONULLA 223 10.1
8 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 249 11.3
NRL Average 3621 10.3

The Roosters are the only one of the final eight to make more errors than the season average. Their 11.3 errors a game is actually down on 2014. But the Rabbitohs were the fourth most error-prone side on the way to the 2014 premiership.

Errors are often a sign that a side has an expansive attacking game and drops the ball in their attempt to score. Given this context, the fact that the Cowboys score lots of tries and have a very low error rate should be noted.

The Final eight in statistically ranked order

Rank Team Tries Scored Tries con Line Breaks Line Breaks con Tackle Breaks Missed Tackles Met gain Met con Pen con Pen rec errors Total
1 NORTH QUEENSLAND 2 7 2 8 2 5 1 1 3 5 2 38
2 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 4 1 1 1 1 8 2 2 6 7 8 41
3 MELBOURNE 6 2 6 2 8 1 7 5 5 3 1 46
4 BRISBANE 1 3 3 5 6 4 6 8 1 6 4 47
5 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA 8 4 8 4 5 6 4 6 2 2 3 52
6 CRONULLA 7 5 7 6 4 7 3 3 7 1 7 57
7 SOUTH SYDNEY 5 6 5 7 3 2 8 4 8 4 5 57
8 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 3 8 4 3 7 3 5 7 4 8 6 58

So once all of these rankings are added up we see that statistically the Cowboys and Roosters are your two best bets for the title. However, how much effect will Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Pearce’s injuries have on the Roosters’ charge?

With the Cowboys so much depends on the presence of Johnathan Thurston, and with Michael Morgan out for a while, that pressure increases and more defensive focus can be placed on the great JT.

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While they are clearly last in the rankings, the Bulldogs are my dark horse. They can still jag fourth spot if things go their way, and they have grand final experience in their 17 to burn.

Importantly, while all other sides have injury issues, the Dogs seem to be coming good just at the right time.

There is another factor to consider. Look at the table below, which shows the statistical rankings for the 2014 final eight.

While the Rabbitohs in 2014 were streets ahead of all the other teams statistically – far more than the Cowboys are this year – they had three stats that weren’t excellent: metres conceded, penalties conceded and errors.

As I’ve argued above, I don’t think errors are necessarily an indication of a poor team – balls may get dropped, but fortune favours the brave.

Further, when you consider that in 2013 and 2014 the Roosters were the worst side for conceding penalties yet won a premiership and made a preliminary final respectively, giving away penalties isn’t a disincentive – especially now the sin bin virtually doesn’t exist.

In 2014 South Sydney weren’t great in these two regards but they were emphatic premiers nonetheless.

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If we disregard these two stats in 2015, the Roosters and the Cowboys are neck-and-neck. Barring major disasters, the stats say that the premier will be one of these two sides – with the Bulldogs my smoky.

2014 Top Eight statistically ranked

Rank Team Tries Scored Tries con Line Breaks Line Breaks con Tackle Breaks Missed Tackles Met gain Met con Pen con Pen rec errors Total
1 SOUTH SYDNEY 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 5 4 1 6 26
1 SYDNEY ROOSTERS 2 2 1 2 1 6 4 2 8 8 8 44
3 NORTH QUEENSLAND 3 3 3 8 5 2 3 6 3 5 3 44
4 BRISBANE 4 5 4 4 8 5 6 7 1 7 2 53
5 CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN 8 7 7 7 3 4 1 1 7 2 7 54
6 MELBOURNE 5 8 5 5 7 3 8 4 6 4 1 56
7 MANLY 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 3 2 6 4 59
8 PENRITH 7 4 8 3 4 8 5 8 5 3 5 60
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