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The Wallabies may be short of a certain Trans-Tasman trophy for another year but that doesn’t mean their trophy cabinet will be collecting cobwebs.
Already having cruised to only their second Rugby Championship/Tri Nations title in 14 years the Wallabies find themselves in unfamiliar territory as of late – being in form.
And that my friends is exactly why the William Webb Ellis Cup will be covered in green and gold comes the end of October.
If you take away the mauling in Eden Park, the Wallabies had one of their most dominant winter seasons in a very, very long time. Sneaking past South Africa in an injury-time thriller put them on the front foot for a very expected pushover against Argentina, before finally taking down the Kiwis in a surprising display.
Yes, but that was only three other teams I hear you say. How are they supposed to beat the rest of the world? Well, let’s weigh up the rest of the tournament and the Wallabies’ possible opponents to find out.
Australia has drawn Pool A which will consist of England, Wales, Fiji and Uruguay. Now compared to the other three pools this is definitely the pool with the most likelihood of an upset or two.
Remember this is all hypothetical.
Fiji
The men in gold will be roughed around in their first game against the might and weight of the flying Fijians but I can’t see them being taken down the Pacific Islanders.
Uruguay
The South Americans will be the next bump in the road but much like Fiji they simply won’t be able to keep up with the top five teams and will valiantly go down to an in-form Wallabies.
England
The Wallabies’ third encounter is where things get interesting. England pose the biggest threat to topping Pool A one would think, however playing the Welsh earlier in the fixtures could prove to be England’s downfall.
They have a surprisingly average record against the Welsh in the last four years having won only once before just sneaking past them in this year’s Six Nations tournament. I believe the Welsh will beat the English, which will leave them reeling on the back foot against the Wallabies and fighting to keep their campaign alive. The pressure will overthrow the hosts and the Aussies will cruise home with a strong second half.
Wales
This fixture will, in my mind, be a pool topping decider. Wales will be on a running high after toppling their co-hosts on enemy ground and then dispatching Fiji so it will be a real danger game for Australia.
But history will choose this winner, Wales have beaten Australia only twice in the last 25 years! The Wallabies will no doubt be pushed to the limit by the European’s strong scrummaging but ultimately will run the Welsh around the park with their pace out wide.
So that puts the Wallabies into the quarter-finals on top of their group. Where to now? We have to determine the other three pools.
The other three pools consist of:
Pool B: South Africa, Samoa, Scotland, Japan and the US
Pool C: New Zealand, Argentina, Tonga, Georgia and Namibia
Pool D: France, Ireland, Italy, Canada and Romania
Pool B
South Africa no doubt have the easiest run to the quarter-finals than any other team. They won’t have to face any other top five team, and their closest rivals will be Scotland who have only recently snuck into 10th place in the world rankings. Samoa will definitely fight it to the end but I feel Scotland will join the Springboks in the finals.
Pool C
It’s impossible to go past New Zealand topping their group stage, the reigning champions will breeze through the other four sides. Their Rugby Championship rivals Argentina have had a rough 12 months and will struggle to keep up with New Zealand but will nestle in behind them.
Pool D
Ireland have been the surprise packet of the rugby world over the past two years having risen from seventh to second on the rankings in an 18-month period. They have taken home the Six Nations Championship the the last two years in a row as well as strong wins against Australia, Argentina, South Africa and a big win against New Zealand.
The results propel the Irish into a strong position to vie for their strongest World Cup showing ever. Italy have been slowly dropping since the 2011 edition of the World Cup and I’d be very surprised if they surpass their French neighbours to secure a finals berth.
Based on all this the quarter-finals should read:
QF1: South Africa versus Wales
QF2: New Zealand versus France
QF3: Ireland versus Argentina
QF4: Australia versus Scotland
Quarter-final 1
Wales fought hard through the pool stages but the might of the South African lineout and no doubt a plethora of long-range penalties from the boot of Morne Steyn will sink the Welsh into another ‘what could have been’ World Cup campaign for them.
Quarter-final 2
New Zealand and France have very interesting history in World Cup encounters which will make for a thrilling match-up. The World Cup adventures of these two teams is an article on its own but I’ll keep it relatively short.
It all began at the World Cup of 1999 where the French denied the Kiwis another World Cup final appearance by downing them 43-31 in an enthralling semi-final clash. Four years later New Zealand walked home with their dignity intact after a cruising victory in the third place playoff.
In 2007, New Zealand were the world beaters and the most dominant XV of all time. They plowed through the group stages and won their games by 40, 77 and 62, and even racked up 108 points against the hapless Portuguese. They were unstoppable, until they met France.
In one of the greatest upsets of all time, the French grinded and fought through the grittiest and most on-the-edge-of-your-seat 80 minutes of rugby to come out 20-18 victors.
The most recent chapter in their World Cup story was of course their thrilling 2011 final that saw New Zealand sneak home 8-7 to claim the trophy on home soil. This could be the game of the tournament, but I just can’t go past the reigning world champs New Zealand.
Quarter-final 3
Ireland and Argentina will be an interesting clash of styles as they will both be looking to move through with a confidence building victory. But as I said before Ireland is untouchable at the moment so I think they’re very anti-european free-running style will bring them success.
Quarter-final 4
Back to the Aussies. This will be a pretty straight forward start to finish victory for the Wallabies. The Scottish will put up a fight but they won’t have enough to match the Wallabies here.
The semi-finals are set with a very southern hemisphere feel about it, though considering that only one northern hemisphere team has ever won the World Cup this isn’t a huge surprise.
SF1: South Africa versus New Zealand
SF2: Ireland versus Australia
Semi-final 1
On paper this should be a thrilling contest but the South Africa of old has been absent as of late. A disappointing showing in the recent Rugby Championship and a generally poor international season has seen them slip in ranking and in favour for another World Cup victory come October. An ever daunting task of taking down New Zealand will force the Springboks to come up short in this match.
Semi-final 2
Australia will be looking to avenge their 2011 Rugby World Cup loss to the Irish which gave the men in green the leap over them to finish ahead and on top of their pool. A free-flowing, cut-out passing, kick-chasing, error-fuelled match between these two teams will provide an endless reel of highlights as the Wallabies will extend their already strong record against Ireland to progress through to the final.
This means I’m picking the final for the pinnacle of the sport to be the age old Trans-Tasman rivalry set to light up the English turf.
Grand-final
Despite losing the Bledisloe in a slightly embarrassing 13 consecutive years, Australia have proven over the past two years that they have definitely caught up to the Haka-screaming juggernaut that has been New Zealand for the past decade.
Australia will win this encounter and with it, the World Cup. The New Zealand side, however great they were, are an ageing squad with veterans like Richie McCaw, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Keven Mealamu and Dan Carter all on their last legs.
Australia did go down in Eden Park but I really don’t think that’s a fair gauge on any team if you base a performance on playing the All Blacks there, it’s an impenetrable fortress. Australia have the momentum going into this one and a newfound confidence knowing that they have been able to beat New Zealand. It will give them a huge mental boost which will no doubt translate onto the field.
At the end of the day the Wallabies will stand tall hoisting the World Cup for the first time since 1999 (forgetting the farce of 2003 that consisted of Jonny Wilkinson’s right boot sinking the hearts of every Australian sports fan).
So there you have it, Australia will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup and there’s nothing you can do about it.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.