Race 5 at Rosehill on Saturday sees the 13th staging of the 1200m three-year-old Group 3 race The Run to the Rose, which is perhaps better known as the prelude to the Golden Rose run at the same track in two weeks’ time.
It only received its Group class status in 2007 and was run over a distance of 1300m until 2010.
In the past nine years it has largely been dominated by only a few trainers. John Hawkes won it three times (twice for the Ingham Family), Peter Snowden twice (for the Darley stable – formerly Ingham stable), Gai Waterhouse twice, and the Cummings family twice (one for Anthony, and one for Bart and James).
The last four winners have carried 57.5kg or more to victory, indicating that the higher-weighted, better-performed horses are starting to dominate the race.
This year we have a Heavy track to contend with, and that should suit a horse with current race fitness. The Chris Waller-trained Japonisme is that horse, and not only is he rock-hard fit, he is arguably the class horse of the field, having won the recent San Domenico Stakes in a canter.
That was a crack field of three-year-olds, and the time he ran was once again well above average – over a second faster than an older horse, Princefamous, did at the same 1100m distance that day.
Unbeaten in four races since being gelded, he has already won on a Heavy track, and at 1200m, so there really isn’t a flaw to expose, excepting the fact he must be coming to the end of his preparation. He probably deserves to be carrying top weight on his recent efforts, yet he is still 2kg shy of his top-weighted stablemate in the race.
His trainer could have saved him for the richer Golden Rose in two weeks’ time, but it seems this might be his swansong this campaign. Whatever beats him will almost certainly be the winner of this race.
Press Statement is his stablemate, a Group 1 winner in Brisbane and the only unbeaten horse in the race. Two of those wins have been on wet tracks, and it’s pertinent that he was too good for Shards at his second race start – that horse is unbeaten in two starts since, and was victorious over one of the big Golden Rose fancies Sebring Sun last week.
He might need the run here, and will most likely be primed for the Golden Rose, but he can’t be totally ignored as a winning chance.
Exosphere resumes for Godolphin in this race after a spectacular failure in the Golden Slipper last Autumn, which was put down to cardiac arrhythmia. A lot of punters thought differently though, concluding that he didn’t handle the dry track after two ultra impressive wins on wet surfaces. Damningly, his only other failure was on debut as an odds-on favourite on dry ground. He gets conditions to suit in this and has won a barrier trial in preparation. That surely makes him the main danger, although his lack of fitness might be exposed late in the race.
Holler is another Godolphin entrant who ran a slick time when winning on debut, but the form hasn’t really worked out from that race and he didn’t manage to win at his second and only other start on a soft track. He is by a very good wet-track sire in Commands, but his dam’s side of the breeding equation isn’t quite as encouraging. He will get his chance from up on the pace but might find at least a couple too good for him here.
Raphael’s Cat is from the Gai Waterhouse stable, and he ran a slick time when winning a midweek three-year-old race at Canterbury on August 19. That was his second win from three race starts, and although he might not have beaten much in those two wins he has impressed both times. He has won on a soft track, and will almost certainly lead this field. He could be very hard to run down around the tight Rosehill circuit and the stable is really firing at the moment.
Redzel was a major disappointment in a very hot San Domenico field, but perhaps he can be forgiven after finding a bit of trouble early. Clutching further at straws, just maybe he was a bit coltish too after racing near the only filly in the race, Alart? He failed at his second race start, which was on a wet track, so that doesn’t augur well for him here, but maybe that was an aberration, and the fact he didn’t go well on a dry track first-up means he could be looking for this type of surface? He has a couple of siblings who excelled on wet tracks, and his sire won a Group 1 race on a wet track. Maybe too many question marks about him, but he probably represents value at least from a quinella perspective.
Mr Optimistic is probably well named for this race, because his connections are probably being just that in entering him. It’s hard to see him troubling these on exposed form and he has no wet-track form to recommend him. If he did have race fitness on his side he would come under consideration but that isn’t the case here either. He went poorly in a recent Sunshine Coast barrier trial so it’s hard to see him troubling the place-getters. He has a shrewd trainer though, so perhaps the betting market should be monitored.
Summing up
It’s very hard to look past Japonisme with his current form, fitness and ability on wet tracks. He might even be one of the safest bets of the day.
Exosphere would seem to be the logical danger, with two devastating wins in the wet on his resumé. Third place could come from any of Raphael’s Cat, Press Statement or Redzel. The latter horse could be the knockout horse if he runs to his true ability.
My first four in order:
1. Japonisme
2. Exosphere
3. Raphael’s Cat
4. Press Statment
Bet suggestion
Back Japonisme straight out and aim to at least cover that bet with a quarter stake on Redzel.
Trifecta of Japonisme for first, Exosphere for second, and Press Statement with Raphael’s Cat for third.
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
