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Breaking down the 2015 US Open draw

Roger Federer continued his comeback by winning Indian Wells. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
Roar Guru
28th August, 2015
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1055 Reads

The men’s and women’s draws for the 2015 US Open have been released and there will be some interesting matches to look forward to as Marin Cilic and Serena Williams attempt to successfully defend their titles.

In the case of Williams, she has the chance to achieve the Calendar Grand Slam.

Men
In the men’s draw, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are on opposite sides of each other. But the biggest story is that of two-time champion Rafael Nadal, who has been placed in the same quarter as world number one Djokovic, has a seeding of eighth.

It means that should Djokovic and Nadal get this far, it will be their second quarter-final duel in the last three Grand Slams, the pair having met at the French Open earlier this year with Djokovic winning in straight sets.

But first things first – the top seed and 2011 champion will kick off his bid for a second US Open title against Portugal’s Joao Sousa, with his first seeded threat coming in the form of Italy’s Andreas Seppi in the third round.

Seppi has developed a reputation for causing trouble to the top seeds at majors; not only did he upset Roger Federer at the Australian Open earlier this year, he also went two sets up on Djokovic at the French Open in 2012 before the Djoker came back to win in five.

Nadal, who missed last year’s tournament due to injury, faces a potentially tricky opening round assignment against rising Croat Borna Coric, with the 2013 boys’ champion winning their only previous meeting late last year in Basel.

But that won’t be the only impediment to Nadal making a deep run at Flushing Meadows; he could face Italian 32nd seed Fabio Fognini in the third round, and either one of 10th seed Milos Raonic or compatriot Fernando Verdasco in the fourth.

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Fourth seed Kei Nishikori will start his bid to go one better at the US Open with a first round clash against Frenchman Benoit Paire. Also in his pocket of the draw are another two Frenchmen, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils, both of whom could meet in the third round for the right to face the Japanese in the fourth round.

If Nishikori does reach the quarter-finals, then he may have to face Marin Cilic in a rematch of last year’s final, in the final eight. The defending champion and ninth seed, who risks dropping out of the top 20 with an early loss, will start his title defence against a yet-to-be-determined qualifier.

Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer shape as the major seeded threats to Cilic reaching the quarter-finals for the third time in four years.

In the bottom half of the draw, fifth seed Stan Wawrinka and 2012 champion Andy Murray could, and should, meet in the quarter-finals with both given relatively easy early round matches.

Wawrinka starts off against Spain’s Albert Ramos-Vinolas, with Jack Sock, Viktor Troicki and Gilles Simon among the seeds the Swiss could encounter, while Murray opens against controversial Australian Nick Kyrgios, whom he has defeated twice this year at the Australian and French Opens, both in straight sets.

Roger Federer is the leading name in the bottom quarter of the draw and he will open his bid for a sixth US Open title against Argentina’s Leonardo Mayer, with former Australian Open finalist Marcos Baghdatis possibly awaiting in Round 2.

German Philipp Kohlschreiber shapes as his first seeded threat in the third round, but none will come more threatening than either 13th seed and American hopeful John Isner, or 21st seeded serving machine Ivo Karlovic, in the fourth round.

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Seventh seed Tomas Berdych is expected to await the Swiss Maestro in the quarter-finals. The Czech, a semi-finalist in 2012, starts against American wildcard Bjorn Fratangelo with his first seeded threat coming in the form of Spaniard Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the third round.

Australia is represented strongly in Berdych’s section, with Bernard Tomic and Lleyton Hewitt set for an intriguing second-round showdown, provided they defeat Damir Dzumhur and Aleksandr Nedovyesov respectively. Thanasi Kokkinakis is up against his Cincinnati conqueror Richard Gasquet in the first round.

Barring any major upsets, the men’s quarter-final line up could unfold as follows:

Quarter-finals
Novak Djokovic versus Rafael Nadal
Kei Nishikori versus David Ferrer
Stan Wawrinka versus Andy Murray
Tomas Berdych versus Roger Federer

Semi-finals
Novak Djokovic versus Kei Nishikori
Stan Wawrinka versus Roger Federer

Final
Novak Djokovic versus Roger Federer

Champion
Novak Djokovic

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Women
Now shifting focus to the women and as the top two seeds, Serena Williams and Simona Halep are on opposite sides of the draw, which means they cannot meet until the final.

Third seed Maria Sharapova and last year’s runner-up Caroline Wozniacki have been assigned to those respective halves of the draw, which means the former could be set for a first-ever US Open showdown against Williams in the semi-finals.

Top seed Williams opens her bid to complete the Calendar Grand Slam against Vitalia Diatchenko and leads a section filled by many American hopefuls as well as the two Radwanska sisters, whom could potentially face off in the second round.

Among the compatriots the six-time US Open champion could face include Bethanie Mattek-Sands, CoCo Vandeweghe, Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys, while 15th seed Agnieszka Radwanska is expected to await in the fourth round.

Radwanska, as already mentioned above, could face younger sister Urszula in the second round and then Madison Keys in the third in a rematch of their Wimbledon quarter-final which was won by the Pole.

The second section is just as interesting, as it includes recent Toronto champion and promising star Belinda Bencic, as well as two-time champion Venus Williams and Czech eighth seed Karolina Pliskova.

Australian Casey Dellacqua is in this section and will open against a yet-to-be-determined qualifier before possibly facing Russian 31st seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the second round.

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2006 champion Maria Sharapova and seventh seed Ana Ivanovic are the leading names in the second quarter of the draw, but both face potentially tricky opening round matches, among others, en route to a possible quarter-final showdown.

Sharapova will start against adopted Australian Daria Gavrilova, who upset her in Miami earlier this year, but that won’t be her only early challenge, with 30th seed and 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova her potential third-round opponent.

Ivanovic’s first match will be against 2010 quarter-finalist and former Australian Open finalist Dominika Cibulkova, who has slid down the rankings this year due to an Achilles injury but very recently reached the quarter-finals in Connecticut.

The Serb, whose best result at Flushing Meadows came in 2012 when she reached the quarter-finals, could then face struggling Canadian Eugenie Bouchard, who faces American Alison Riske in her opener, in the third round, and then either Spain’s Carla Suarez Navarro or compatriot Jelena Jankovic in the fourth round.

Fifth seed Petra Kvitova, two-time finalists and former world number ones Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka, and second seed Simona Halep are among the big names to watch out for in the bottom half of the draw.

Two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova, who has struggled at the Grand Slams this year, will start against a qualifier and shouldn’t be troubled until the fourth round where recent Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza could await.

Muguruza, who is winless since finishing runner-up to Serena Williams at the All England Club last month, starts against German Carina Witthoft and could face another German, Andrea Petkovic, in the third round.

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Further down the draw, fourth seed Wozniacki and former French Open finalist Sara Errani may have to meet a round earlier than last year just to get into this year’s quarter-finals.

Wozniacki, who at the time of this article going to print has reached the semi-finals in Connecticut, starts off against American wildcard Jamie Loeb, with 26th-seeded Italian Flavia Pennetta her potential third round opponent.

Errani, a semi-finalist in 2012, starts against a qualifier and may have to defeat Samantha Stosur in the third round to earn herself a shot at Wozniacki, against whom the Italian could only win one game in the quarter-finals last year.

Stosur starts off against Hungarian doubles specialist Timea Babos and apart from that, shouldn’t be troubled until the third round where Errani is expected to await. As a matter of fact, Stosur defeated the Italian in the third round way back in 2010.

Second seed Simona Halep, French Open finalist Lucie Safarova and two-time finalist Victoria Azarenka headline the bottom quarter of the draw, and there are some interesting matches that could eventuate here.

Safarova starts against Ukraine’s Lesia Tsurenko, who has just reached the semi-finals of the Connecticut Open as a lucky loser after she replaced Simona Halep, who withdrew there due to fatigue, in the main draw.

Germany’s Angelique Kerber starts against Alexandra Dulgheru and then may have to deal with Australian import Ajla Tomljanovic, Azarenka and then Safarova in succession if she is to repeat her quarter-final performance from 2012.

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Azarenka, who is slowly surging back up the rankings after very nearly dropping out of the top 50 earlier this year, starts against Lucie Hradecka before facing one of Francesca Schiavone or Yanina Wickmayer in the second round.

In the bottom section, Halep has a relatively easy draw and should better her performance from last year, when she was upset in the third round by Croat Mirjana Lucic-Baroni.

The Romanian, who finished runner-up to Belinda Bencic and Serena Williams at the two major US Open lead-up tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati respectively, starts against Marina Erakovic, but her first seeded threat could come in the form of unpredictable Frenchwoman Alize Cornet.

Former Wimbledon finalist Sabine Lisicki, Swiss Timea Bacsinszky and Italian Camila Giorgi are among the potential opponents Halep could face in the fourth round.

And so, should the women’s matches unfold without any major upsets, then this could be the potential quarter-final line-up:

Quarter-finals
Serena Williams versus Karolina Pliskova
Maria Sharapova versus Ana Ivanovic
Petra Kvitova versus Caroline Wozniacki
Lucie Safarova versus Simona Halep

Semi-finals
Serena Williams versus Maria Sharapova
Caroline Wozniacki versus Simona Halep

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Final
Serena Williams versus Simona Halep

Champion
Serena Williams

So, those are just some of the highlights from the draw.

Can Marin Cilic and Serena Williams repeat as champions? Or will Novak Djokovic rebound from two final defeats in Montreal and Cincinnati and lift the trophy for the first time since 2011? And can Williams complete the Calendar Grand Slam?

All those questions are set to be answered when the US Open starts this Tuesday morning (AEST).

Key first round matches
The men
Novak Djokovic (1) versus Joao Sousa
Borna Coric versus Rafael Nadal (8)
Kei Nishikori (4) versus Benoit Paire
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (19) versus Jarkko Nieminen
Nick Kyrgios versus Andy Murray (3)
Bernard Tomic (24) versus Damir Dzumhur
Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Richard Gasquet (12)
Leonardo Mayer versus Roger Federer (2)

The women
Serena Williams (1) versus Vitalia Diatchenko
CoCo Vandeweghe versus Sloane Stephens (29)
Monica Puig versus Venus Williams (23)
Maria Sharapova (3) versus Daria Gavrilova
Eugenie Bouchard (25) versus Alison Riske
Dominika Cibulkova versus Ana Ivanovic (7)
Jamie Loeb versus Caroline Wozniacki (4)
Timea Babos versus Samantha Stosur (22)
Marina Erakovic versus Simona Halep (2)

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