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SPIRO: The power of 31 for the Wallabies, Springboks and All Blacks

30th August, 2015
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How long will Australia persevere with this backrow? (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
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30th August, 2015
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The problem for selectors picking their squad to win Rugby World Cup 2015 is rather like trying to solve rubik’s cube, in the dark.

The selectors won’t know until the tournament is over whether their selection moves were effective.

A requirement for all the teams competing in the 2015 Rugby World Cup is to select their sides from a squad of not more than 31 players.

The logic in the World Rugby 31-man squad requirement seems to be that, in theory, it allows for two players in each position, plus one extra player.

In fact, the reality for the coaches is that there are several different ways of allocating positions in the squad.

The one mandatory requirement is that the 23-man squad for matches (a starting XV and eight reserves) must field six front rowers.

This is such an important element in the Tournament Rules and, therefore, the Rugby World Cup rubik’s cube solution that the relevant section (1.1.7) “Compliance with World Rugby Law 3.5” needs to be quoted in full:

“Compliance with the relevant World Rugby Laws and Regulations is critical in the conduct of the Tournament. Should Teams be found in breach of Law 3.5 (suitably trained and experienced players in the front row), the matter will be forwarded to the Tournament Disputes Committee for consideration.

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In the absence of any mitigating circumstances this will result in: forfeiture of all Match points for that fixture (including bonus points), and possible financial penalties.

In terms of the provision of front row players to comply with Law 3.5, the necessary number of reserve front row players must included in the Tournament Team to cover last minute injuries to front row players selected in the Match Team within the 48 hour replacement time frame set out in Section 4.5.”

I would argue from this that the prime requirement for coaches at the 2015 Rugby World Cup is to ensure that, at all times, they have six front row players, including two hookers, available to run on to the field at the beginning of a match.

I have made the distinction between between hookers and “front row” players because the qualifying statement “suitably trained and experienced players in the front row” strongly implies the necessity for these players to be “experienced” in their position, either as a tight head, loose head or (and this is the crucial point) as a hooker.

England, I have reported in The Roar previously, always include a QC in their World Cup team. If, say, the Wallabies present Scott Sio, the “third” hooker as far as the Wallabies are concerned, as a hooker because of an injury to either Stephen Moore or Tatafu Polota-Nau, England’s QC could make the convincing case that he is not “experienced” as a hooker.

And as section 1.1.7 insists, the Wallabies could lose their match points and the ARU could be fined for the breach of the section. This is why I have argued that Michael Cheika is holding the fortunes of the Wallabies to hostage by selecting two and not three hookers.

Cheika’s solution to the 31-man squad rubik’s cube problem goes further, alas, than picking only two hookers. He has selected seven outside backs, all of them except for Isdrael Folau much of a muchness, and only two specialist halfbacks.

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Wayne Smith in Saturday’s The Australian asked this pertinent question: “Why was the tough call to leave back-up hooker James Hanson out of the side made in the first place?

“No other coach has followed his lead of only choosing two hookers and frankly, neither should they. It’s fraught with danger.”

Incidentally, Wayne wrote a powerful and moving article in The Australian Magazine about his unexpected stroke earlier in the season. His account of what happened to him and how he has managed (with the loving help of his wife), in a relatively short time, to over-come the problems the stroke inflicted on him is inspirational.

I have had numerous rugby disputes with Wayne over the decades. But we are rugby men at heart. Our interests are bound up in the promotion and spread of our great game. My hope for him is that he has a great Rugby World Cup tournament. I am looking forward to reading his articles, and disagreeing with him from time to time in the spirit of rugby as a contact sport, on and (in terms of bloviating) off the field.

One interesting insider analysis of what Cheika has been up to with his selections goes along these lines.

First, Cheika was the proponent and instigator of the new (2015) 60/7 rule that allows experienced and older Wallabies who had played 60 Tests within a seven year period to play for Australia. Previously, these players were ineligible under the requirement that only players playing in Australia could be selected as Wallabies.

Second, Cheika is forceful in pushing for systems he wants and he has selected every overseas player available under the 60/7 rule, and also two overseas players who did not come within the 60/7 rule.

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So we have Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell under the 60/7 rule: and Dean Mumm and Kane Douglas as overseas players who did not play in the 2015 Super Rugby tournament.

Mumm was off contract but in the case of Douglas it is still not clear whether his contract with the Ireland Rugby Union was bought out by himself or by the ARU.

Drew Mitchell, it needs to be remembered, is part of the surplus of wingers that Cheika’s Rugby World Cup squad is carrying.

The criticism has been made, too, that the Wallabies halves combinations for the tournament, Phipps – Foley and Genia – Cooper, are the least impressive that the Wallabies have presented at a Rugby World Cup tournament. Certainly there is no equivalent of the Farr-Jones – Lynagh or Gregan – Larkham brilliance about the Rugby World Cup 2015 halves combinations.

Will Genia and Quade Cooper, admittedly, were the starting halves for Rugby World Cup 2011. But that was then when they had played brilliantly for the Queensland Reds inspiring them to that team’s first Super Rugby tournament win. Four years later, in 2015, both have suffered injuries and neither is playing with the confidence or expertise of earlier years.

I have said this before and will say it one last time (perhaps) that Cheika has not picked a side with real growth in it. The only new Wallaby is prop Toby Smith.

Cheika should have at least considered Nick Stirzacker and Jack Debreczini in his earlier train-on squads.

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But the team now is what it is. It goes into the Rugby World Cup tournament with the same sort of record as the 2011 Rugby World Cup squad having defeated the All Blacks just before the Rugby World Cup tournament (once) and having won The Rugby Championship. But with a history of losing to the All Blacks in most of their other Tests.

The two Rugby World Cup-winning teams, in 1991 and 1999, had much better records against the All Blacks before going on to win their Webb Ellis trophies.

The Wallabies defeated the All Blacks 21 -9 in a losing series in 1990, 2 – 1, at Wellington, when Phil Kearns gave Sean Fitzpatrick a verbal uppercut. Then in 1991 in Australia they defeated Wales 63 – 6, defeated England 40 – 15, and defeated New Zealand 21 – 12. In their last Test before Rugby World Cup 1991, they lost narrowly to the All Blacks at Auckland 6 – 3.

In 1998 the Wallabies won three Tests against the All Blacks, culminating in a tremendous victory at Christchurch which provoked John O’Neill to comment on “the silence of the lambs” in the crowd. In 1999 the Wallabies defeated the All Blacks convincingly at Sydney and then lost narrowly at Auckland.

The mood in Australia was so cocky that at a farewell for the 1999 Rugby World Cup Wallabies at Sydney’s Entertainment Centre, Vince Sorrenti brought down the house by asking: “Want to hear a joke? … The All Blacks!”

Cheika’s Wallabies had the chance to repeat the 1999 history with their terrific victory at Sydney. Unfortunately, he experimented with his winning side, a no-no in any sport, and allowed the All Blacks to regroup and inflict a demoralising loss on the Wallabies.

We come back to Cheika’s selections again. How has Kane Douglas, who played 20 minutes at Auckland and looked out on his feet, made the squad? Drew Mitchell didn’t get a run at Auckland. And Nic White, a starter at Auckland, was dropped from the Rugby World Cup squad.

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I can’t see much logic in all of this. It must be there but it isn’t apparent to me.

Now we are told that Kurtley Beale is, finally, going to get a starting role for the Wallabies against the USA this week. Where will Beale play, though? And why does Cheika need to find out whether Beale is a starter, or not, after coaching him for the last three seasons with the Waratahs?

Cheika clearly does not know what his best starting XV is. This will make his attempt to win the Webb Ellis trophy rather difficult, you would think.

In 1991 and 1999, coaches Bob Dwyer and Rod Macqueen were almost sure of their best starting side. I say almost because Toutai Kefu was dropped for the Auckland Test for Tiaan Strauss by Macqueen. But essentially all the parts of the team selection puzzle were solved.

I would argue that this clarity was an important part of the Rugby World Cup success of the 1991 and 1999 sides. I don’t see this sort of clarity in Cheika’s squad to win the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

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For coach Heyneke Meyer solving his rubik’s cube selection problems for the Springboks came with a further difficulty of having to cope with the requirement of filling a black quota.

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I see the selection of Rudy Paige as the third scrum-half as being part of the quota requirement. But, having said that, I believe Paige really deserves to be in the squad. He is a better halfback, in my opinion, than Ruan Pienaar. He is the South African halfback who is closest to the sort of buzz-saw game that Aaron Smith plays for the All Blacks.

Meyer, too, has selected three halfbacks, three flyhalves and three hookers.

This makes sense in that the three hookers will enable the Springboks not to fall foul of section 1.1.7, if there is an accident to a hooker within two days of a match.

The three halfbacks also makes sense in that in the backs the halfback position is, along with the number 10, a position where you need someone with a lot of experience to lead the side around the field.

Neither position is really a place where you can play part-timers, unless they are played from the bench. And even in this case, you have to hope that the replacement is not made early on in the game.

The Springboks have six players from their successful Rugby World Cup 2007 campaign. This seems to me to be somewhat excessive. You wonder, for instance, what Morne Steyn can really bring to the squad. I know, I know, he is a deadly goal kicker. But in recent years even his goal-kicking has gone off somewhat.

Having made this point about the Rugby World Cup 2007 veterans, it needs to be said that Meyer has brought 12 players into the 31-man squad who were not Springboks three years ago.

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This influx of relatively new players means that the average age of the squad is 26. The squad is slightly younger than the winning sides in the last four tournaments: Australia in 1999, 27: England in 2003, 28: South Africa in 2007, 27: New Zealand in 2011, 28.

The relative youthfulness of the Springboks, however, is balanced (or over-balanced) by the fact that nine of the players were selected from outside of South Africa.

It is my firm belief that players do not improve by playing outside of the Super Rugby environment. As an example of this, look at what has happened with James O’Connor.

The other feature of Meyer’s selection is that he has deliberately selected players for their ability to play in several different positions.

In my view, a well-selected squad needs a couple of these versatile players, mainly as specialist reserves. I see Matt Giteau, for instance, as a super sub who can play in every position of the backline but none of them so well that he is an automatic starter in that position.

The point is that a well-selected squad has an obvious starting XV. You then need a couple of forwards and a couple of backs to be specialist reserves. And then the rest of the squad needs to be players who are second-best in the team in their designated positions.

The other query about Meyer’s Springboks squad is that a number of players, especially the captain Jean de Villiers, are coming off injuries.

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In the case of de Villiers, too, the new Springboks centre combination of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, was much better, more explosive on attack and defence, than when de Villiers played in the centres.

Like Cheika’s attempt to line up the rubik’s cube colours, Meyer has been criticised by most of the experts. Are these criticisms justified? My sense, though, is that the Springboks squad is a better-selected squad than the Wallabies.

But whether this translates into success in England is another matter …

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In the media statement attached to the All Blacks squad, there was a specific reference from coach Steve Hansen to the Rugby World Cup being a “unique Tournament with a unique set of replacement rules.”

To embrace these rules, the All Black selectors have picked three hookers, five props, three half backs and three number 10s. This follows a pattern set by the Springbok selector.

The Springbok selectors, however, picked four second-rowers/locks. The All Blacks have selected only three. Instead they have selected six loose forwards, where the Springboks have selected only five.

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Among the All Black loose forwards, there are two number 7s, Richie McCaw and Sam Kane. The Springboks have Francois Louw as their “fetcher.” But they couldn’t find room for Heinrich Brussow.

Remembering Rugby World Cup 2011 and the quarter-final loss to the Wallabies, a defeat that turned on an early injury to Brussow, leaving David Pocock to have a field day at the rucks, Heyneke Meyer is possibly risking another struggle to win the rucks if Lowe is injured.

The only really debatable omission for the All Blacks is Lima Sopoaga. I think the reasoning here is that all going well, Daniel Carter will be the All Blacks starting number 10 in the big matches. Beauden Barrett and Colin Slade have more value for the All Blacks as specialist reserves who can play well, if needed, at number 10.

But if Carter is injured then Sopoaga will come into the squad as a possible starter.

Like the Springboks, the All Blacks are well covered for any potential problems arising of out section 1.1.7 requirements.

Only four outside backs have been selected compared with five for the Springboks and seven for the Wallabies.

There is cover to a certain extent from Sonny Bill Williams who played on the wing in Rugby World Cup 2011, and possibly from Malakai Fekitoa. But what this restricted number of outside backs suggests to me is that in every game the All Blacks are going to go with a back three that has strength, speed and skills that are exceptional.

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So the policy, apparently, is to present a tough, uncompromising and experienced forward pack (exceptions being Codie Taylor three Tests and Luke Romano 20 Tests) and an exceptional back three with two brilliant newcomers, Nehe Milner-Skudder (two Tests) and Waisake Naholo (one Test.)

The selection task for Steve Hansen is much easier than that of Michael Cheika. The All Blacks play the Pumas in their first match of Rugby World Cup 2015. They can play their best side. Then they play Namiba and Georgia before finishing their pool with Tonga where they will no doubt play their best side again.

Cheika has three matches in his lake of death, against Fiji, England and Wales, that are harder than any match the All Blacks have, other than the Pumas contest.

On paper, at least, this All Blacks 2015 side looks to me a much better squad than the 2011 All Blacks. This guarantees nothing of course. The All Blacks are yet to win a Rugby World Cup tournament out of New Zealand. Is this the year?

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