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2015 AFL season: Round 23 preview

Roar Guru
1st September, 2015
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While the top eight is all but settled, some matches in Round 23 will go a long way towards shaping the finals series, and the battle for the wooden spoon will go down to the wire.

Richmond can keep their top-four hopes alive when they host North Melbourne, while the Brisbane Lions will attempt to avoid the wooden spoon by sabotaging the Western Bulldogs’ finals preparations.

Having already secured the minor premiership, Fremantle will send a second-string side to face a Port Adelaide side which cannot make the finals.

The Sydney Swans should all but lock up a qualifying final date with the Dockers when they host the Gold Coast Suns at the SCG.

The regular season will conclude with traditional rivals Collingwood and Essendon meeting in a meaningless match, as neither side can make the finals after contrastingly disappointing seasons for both clubs.

Richmond versus North Melbourne
Not since Jason McCartney announced his retirement shortly after making an emotional comeback to the game following his survival of the 2002 Bali bombings has Richmond and North Melbourne met on a Friday night.

The two clubs face off in the only match of the round to involve two teams currently in the eight, and it will give both the Tigers and Kangaroos the chance to flex their muscles a week out from the commencement of the finals.

The Tigers survived a spirited performance from Essendon to win by 27 points, doing so without captain Trent Cotchin, who missed due to a back injury, while the Roos had their seven-game winning streak ended by the Western Bulldogs.

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While this may be a Richmond home game, the fact that it is at Etihad Stadium could advantage the Roos, for whom this is their regular home ground. It is a bit of a throwback to Round 18, 2013, when Melbourne took their home game against the Roos to this ground, with the ‘visitors’ winning by 122 points.

Recent history also favours Brad Scott’s men, who have won their last five meetings against Richmond, including by 35 points in Hobart in Round 6.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 12 points.

Geelong Cats versus Adelaide Crows
This had been billed as a ‘win to get in’ match when the schedule for Round 23 was announced in August, but the Cats’ are unable to make the finals for the first time since 2006.

Instead the clash could be dubbed as the ‘Patrick Dangerfield Cup’ as the Crows midfielder is widely tipped to return to Geelong at the end of this season.

It’s their first meeting since Round 1 last year, after their Round 14 clash at the Oval was cancelled in the aftermath of the tragic passing of Crows coach Phil Walsh.

Since taking over as caretaker coach, Scott Camporeale has done an impressive job in keeping the Crows in the eight, compiling an 8-2 win-loss record to stake his claim for the top job on a full-time basis.

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The Crows can keep their hopes of a home final alive, but they have to defy a poor record at Simonds Stadium to do so, having not won at the venue since 2003.

Geelong will be out to finish a disappointing season with a victory in front of their home fans, with the futures of the likes of Steve Johnson, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright and James Kelly still unclear.

While the Cats have the home ground advantage, the Crows’ recent impressive form should prove too much in the end.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 20 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Western Bulldogs
For the Lions, this is their last chance to avoid the wooden spoon, especially with Carlton very unlikely to beat Hawthorn later in the day.

They’ll have to pull off an almighty upset to do so, with the Bulldogs still with a chance to secure fifth place and a home final, depending on the result of the Tigers vs Kangaroos match from the previous night.

Luke Beveridge’s men bounced back well from a 77-point loss to the West Coast Eagles, and the six-day break, to defeat North Melbourne and thus warm up for their first finals appearance since 2010.

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But to boost their chances of hosting a home final, they’ll have to overcome a poor record at the Gabba, having won only once at the venue since 2007 and not since 2009.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 25 points.

Port Adelaide versus Fremantle
The Dockers sealed top spot last week by defeating Melbourne by 54 points, and knowing that they cannot be dislodged from the top, have decided to rest up to 11 of their best players, including captain Matthew Pavlich, defender Luke McPharlin and ruckman Aaron Sandilands.

This will see Ross Lyon’s men start as underdogs against a Port Adelaide side that are finishing this season strongly after having struggled with the weight of expectations in 2015.

The Power upset the Suns by 37 points on the Gold Coast last week and will be keen to perform in front of their fans for one final time before they start their preparations for season 2016.

Defeating the minor premiers would be the perfect way to finish off a disappointing season – and the Dockers’ intention to send their so-called B-side to the Oval will swing the favouritism the way of Ken Hinkley’s men.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 20 points.

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Hawthorn versus Carlton
Season 2015 has been a horror year for Carlton, and last week’s 81-point loss to the Greater Western Sydney Giants is indicative of the mammoth task incoming coach Brendon Bolton faces in 2016.

The Blues took it right up to the Giants in the first half before falling away, with Bolton and list manager Stephen Silvagni watching on in the stands.

John Barker will coach his final game for the Blues on Saturday against Hawthorn, a club he represented between 1998 and 2006, having served as caretaker coach following the sacking of Mick Malthouse in May.

While the Blues were being beaten in Sydney, the Hawks beat the Lions in Launceston, doing so without suspended captain Luke Hodge who will again miss this week before returning for the finals.

The Hawks remain a chance of finishing in the top two for a fourth consecutive year, but they have to beat Carlton, and hope that St Kilda causes a boilover in the west later in the evening.

It is more likely that the Hawks will travel west in the first week of the finals, but even so, their game against the Blues will provide the two-time reigning premiers with a chance to fine-tune.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 50 points.

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Sydney Swans versus Gold Coast Suns
If the Swans defeat the Suns, the AFL fixturing staff will be left embarrassed after they gave the Swans, minor premiers and grand finalists last year, the luxury of playing both expansion clubs twice when the 2015 draw was released last October.

Already the Swans have defeated the Suns by 52 points on the Gold Coast earlier this season, while they also took the maximum points from their two clashes against intracity rivals the GWS Giants.

With the Suns having endured a horror season due mainly to injuries and disciplinary issues involving key players, it threatens to get very ugly in the Suns’ second ever visit to the SCG.

The Swans thrashed 13th-placed St Kilda at Etihad Stadium last week, with Lance Franklin subbed out in the third quarter as he was carefully managed upon his return from injury.

Josh Kennedy racked up another 30-plus disposals to firm in Brownlow Medal betting, and it will take a monumental effort from the Suns to stop he, Buddy and a host of other Swans who are starting to regain form a week out from the finals.

The Swans should win in a canter – after which they can set their sights on minor premiers Fremantle in Perth the following week.

Adding some spice to this match is Nick Malceski returning to the SCG for the first time since leaving the Swans at the end of last season, while Kurt Tippett will also bring up his 150th AFL match.

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Prediction: Sydney Swans by 75 points.

West Coast Eagles versus St Kilda
The Eagles are coming off a poor loss to the Adelaide Crows, which has left their hopes of hosting a qualifying final next week in serious jeopardy. As the Hawks will be expected to have beaten the Blues earlier in the day, the Eagles simply must win if they are to eventually finish second and host a final in Week 1.

They are up against a St Kilda side who, after a competitive first quarter, last week wilted to the pressure applied by the Swans and eventually crashed to their worst defeat of the season.

The trip to Perth will offer no respite, even though the Saints have made some progress this season, going from four wins last year to six.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 60 points.

Melbourne versus GWS Giants
The first of two matches on a meaningless Sunday will see Melbourne attempt to break an eight-year, 22-match losing streak at Etihad Stadium when they face the GWS Giants for the second time this season.

Season 2015 can’t end soon enough for the Dees, who have lost their last four matches.

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That has led to questions as to whether the club has made any progress under Paul Roos, who continually insists they have, on the basis of their six victories for the year, as many as they did in 2013-14.

Making matters worse, captain Nathan Jones could miss after he was subbed out in the second quarter of his 200th game against Fremantle last week with a foot injury.

But there can be nothing negative said about the Giants, who produced a stunning 170-point turnaround last Saturday to thrash Carlton for the second time this season, and record their biggest winning margin in the process, 81 points.

That took some of the frustration out of being unable to make the finals, but at least Leon Cameron’s men can finish 2015 strongly and then start preparing for an expected September charge in 2016.

That being said, expect them to show Melbourne no mercy under the roof this Sunday.

Prediction: GWS Giants by 40 points.

Collingwood versus Essendon
Collingwood may have dropped out of finals contention after their 91-point loss to Richmond in Round 21, but they did produce one of their best performances for the season by defeating the Geelong Cats by 48 points last week.

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The win, just their second since the Round 12 bye, was set up by a strong opening quarter from which the Cats didn’t recover, and gave fans plenty to cheer about following yet another disappointing second half of the season.

Pies fans, and Eddie McGuire in particular, will be hoping for more of the same against Essendon.

The Bombers were once again competitive against Richmond but couldn’t quite pull off the upset, going down by 27 points. Still, it was an encouraging performance and it will give whoever succeeds James Hird as coach a lot to think about in 2016.

As much as both sides would love to finish their seasons off on a winning note, Collingwood’s victory last week, as well as in the Anzac Day clash earlier this year, will see them start favourites.

Prediction: Collingwood by 20 points.

Should results in this round go as I predict, the final ladder will be as follows:
1. Fremantle
2. West Coast Eagles
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney Swans
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Adelaide Crows
7. Richmond
8. North Melbourne
9. Port Adelaide
10. GWS Giants
11. Collingwood
12. Geelong Cats
13. St Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Essendon
16. Gold Coast Suns
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane Lions

Qualifying finals
Fremantle versus Sydney Swans, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles versus Hawthorn, Domain Stadium

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Elimination finals
Western Bulldogs versus North Melbourne, MCG
Adelaide Crows versus Richmond, Adelaide Oval

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