In rugby league, contenders aren't offloaders

Expert

3rd September, 2015

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Until the Rabbitohs cut out the mistakes and play as a unit, they aren't winning too many games in 2017. (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

Tim Gore

Expert

3rd September, 2015

1799 Reads

There is a perception in rugby league that getting an offload away is great – and in some cases that is true. However, in some cases it isn’t good, and in other cases it’s just awful.

One thing the stats clearly show is that sides who have won the premiership in recent seasons have not been prolific offloaders. Just have a look at the last two seasons:

2013 offloads:

Rank for offloads made	Team	Average offloads per game	Errors made ranking	Tries scored ranking	Final position
1	ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA	14.2	9	14	14th
2	GOLD COAST	11.6	5	7	9th
3	WARRIORS	11.5	12	8	11th
4	PENRITH	11.3	13	9	10th
5	CRONULLA	11.1	2	13	6th
6	CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN	10.7	14	5	7th
7	MANLY	10.0	7 (10.3)	2	Runners up
8	BRISBANE	9.8	16	11	12th
9	MELBOURNE	9.5	6	3	5th
10	NORTH QUEENSLAND	9.4	8	10	8th
11	SYDNEY ROOSTERS	8.6	3 (10.8)	1	Premiers
12	CANBERRA	8.5	4	12	13th
13	WESTS TIGERS	7.9	1	15	15th
14	SOUTH SYDNEY	7.1	11	4	3rd
15	PARRAMATTA	6.7	10	16	Wooden Spoon
16	NEWCASTLE	5.9	15	6	4th
		Average offloads per game: 9.6	Average errors per game: 10.2

Most off the sides that made the finals in 2013 – including the grand finalists – are not the big offloaders.

You will note that the premiers – the Roosters – had just less than the average offloads per game, but they made the third most errors. The runners up – Manly – were just above the average offloads and almost spot-on the average errors.

Just as offloads are often misinterpreted, errors are often misunderstood.

On the one hand they show a side has poor ball control, which is symptomatic of a struggling side – a la Wests Tigers in 2013, who made the most errors and scored the least tries. Too many of their errors were dropping the ball in their own red zone, or from poor play the balls.

Manly and the Roosters surely also had a number of that sort of error in 2013. However, they also had a load of errors where the last pass was dropped trying to score, or the ball was knocked on when a try was attempted.

These are errors that demonstrate ambitious attack. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. As you can see, the Eels barely offloaded in 2013 and only had average errors in winning the wooden spoon.

Also note that Michael Maguire had already stopped his Bunnies offloading in 2013. Only Newcastle and Parramatta made fewer.

Lastly, look at the Dragons. Their 2013 season is the case in point of the often meaninglessness of offloads. They led the way with an average of 14.2 offloads yet they scored the third fewest tries.

Sometimes offloads just highlight that a side has little structure in attack and they just try and get the ball out in the hope that the next bloke might do something.

In 2013 there was a world of difference between Ben Creagh hurling a ball out the back in hope and Sonny Bill Williams getting his arms free to put James Maloney through the line.

2014 Offloads:

Rank for offloads made	Team	Average offloads per game	Errors made ranking	Tries scored ranking	Final position
1	GOLD COAST	13.4	2	15	14
2	CRONULLA	12.7	11	16	16
3	PENRITH	11.2	6	8	4
4	CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN	11.0	3 (11.4)	10	Runners up
5	MANLY	10.9	8	7	5
6	MELBOURNE	10.9	14	6	7
7	WESTS TIGERS	10.8	5	14	13
8	ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA	10.8	15	11	11
9	CANBERRA	10.3	7	13	15
10	BRISBANE	10.2	12	5	8
11	NEWCASTLE	10.1	16	12	12
12	WARRIORS	9.7	13	4	9
13	SYDNEY ROOSTERS	8.8	1	2	3
14	SOUTH SYDNEY	8.6	4 (11.3)	1	Premiers
15	NORTH QUEENSLAND	8.6	9	3	6
16	PARRAMATTA	8.4	10	9	10
		Average offloads per game: 10.4	Average errors per game: 10.7

So there is a big variation happening from 2013 to 2014. All off a sudden most of the also-rans are the average offloaders. The Wests Tigers, Dragons, Raiders and Knights were all around the season average of 10.4.

Again, the two grand finalists have higher-than-average errors. And once more the top offloading side – the Gold Coast this time – was miles off the pace at the business end of the season, and second-worst at scoring tries.

What stayed the same was that the eventual premiers had very few offloads, above average errors, and was the best at scoring tries.

So we’ve seen a pattern emerging. What does this season look like? Is anyone following that pattern?

2015 offloads:

Rank for offloads made	Team	Average offloads per game	Errors made ranking	Tries scored ranking	current position
1	PENRITH	15.9	2	15	15
2	GOLD COAST	11.5	1	14	13
3	CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN	11.4	9	5	6
4	CRONULLA	11.4	7	13	4
5	SYDNEY ROOSTERS	11.2	4 (11.2)	2	1
6	WARRIORS	11.0	3	12	12
7	CANBERRA	10.7	13	4	10
8	NEWCASTLE	10.4	5	11	16
9	PARRAMATTA	10.1	6	9	11
10	ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA	9.5	12	16	8
11	MELBOURNE	9.2	16	10	5
12	BRISBANE	9.0	10 (9.7)	1	2
13	WESTS TIGERS	8.8	11	7	14
14	MANLY	8.2	14	6	9
15	NORTH QUEENSLAND	7.8	15 (9.3)	3	3
16	SOUTH SYDNEY	6.7	8	8	7
		Average offloads per game: 10.2	Average errors per game: 10.2

Again in 2015, the two biggest offloading sides aren’t in contention and are at the bottom of the try-scoring lists.

In regards to seeing if the previous two seasons patterns can help point out the premiership frontrunners, this season there are two sides that have below-average offloads and score lots of tries: the Broncos and Cowboys. However, both have below-average errors.

The Roosters have above-average errors and score lots of tries, while their offloads are above average.

However, the season isn’t done yet. It’ll be interesting to see if the eventual premier follows the pattern from 2013 and 2014. I reckon it’s going to be one of those three sides (or possibly the Dogs – I refuse to write them off).

And I hope I’ve made my point that, while a good offload is a very handy weapon in your arsenal, most offloads shouldn’t actually be included as a good stat at all.

This season’s wooden spooners will equal the record
Now let’s look at the other end of the competition. In the 17 completed seasons of the NRL era 11 of the 16 clubs – in one way or another – have claimed the wooden spoon.

Whoever gets the spoon this year will be equalling the record for the highest number of wins for the season in coming last. Whether it is the Wests Tigers, Knights or Panthers who come last, they’ll do so having won eight games during the season. Both the Knights in 2005 and the Panthers in 2007 won eight games each, yet finished stone motherless last. The average wins for a spoon-winning season since the NRL began in 1998 is just five.

Poor old Penrith have been crippled by injuries this season. By my count this weekend they’ll have 12 genuine first-grade players out injured, including stars like Jamie Soward and Matt Moylan. It is the chief reason they are in contention to claim their third spoon since the NRL began in 1998. If they do, they’ll equal the Rabbitohs’ three spoons over the same period.

It should be noted that Ivan Cleary’s squad keeps producing gems. On Monday night Will Smith made 166 metres from fullback. His game included a try, a try assist and three tackle breaks.

So who are the five clubs that haven’t won the spoon during the NRL era? The Warriors, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Raiders and Brisbane. In fact, those clubs combined only have four wooden spoons ever – the Raiders’ spoon in their inaugural season and the Dragons’ three from pre-WWII.

That’s impressive considering those five sides have played a combined total of 243 seasons.

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Tim Gore

Expert

Tim has been an NRL statistician for ABC Radio Grandstand since 1999, primarily as part of their Canberra coverage. Tim has loved rugby league since Sterlo was a kid with lots of hair but was cursed with having no personal sporting ability whatsoever. He couldn't take a hit in footy, was a third division soccer player making up numbers, plays off 41 in golf and is possibly the world's worst cricketer ever. He has always been good at arguing the point though and he has a great memory of what happened.