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Along with the Stage 11 in Andorra, today’s stage will be among the toughest the peloton has faced so far in La Vuelta a Espana.
Stage 16 will see the peloton face seven mountain passes: the two last ones, the Cobertoria and the Ermita de Alba, are a Cat. 1 climb and a hors category climb, respectively.
The riders start their 185-kilometre journey from Luarca and once again will face a heavy start to the race, with the 14-kilometre ascent of the Cat. 3 Alto de Aristebano starting as soon as the riders leave the neutral section. The climb at 3.5 per cent in gradient will possibly form an early gruppetto.
If a gruppetto has not formed after the summit of this climb, it will most definitely form only 15 kilometres later, when the second category climb of the Alto de Piedratecha begins. At just under 10 kilometres at five per cent, any riders who have been feeling under the weather over the past couple of days will be under pressure once again.
The riders will then get some respite for some 40 kilometres, as they gradually descend towards the next difficulty on the stage, the third category climb of the Alto de la Cabruñana. This climb is the steepest, but shortest on today’s stage thus far, with just under five kilometres of climbing at 6.5 per cent. As can be shown by the first 80 kilometres of racing, there are three races that will be going on today.
With so many climbs on today’s stage, the King of the Mountain’s jersey will be important for Oscar Fraile to keep ahold of, while the general classification fight will take place later in the stage. However, the gruppetto will now not be in sight of the main field, and their war of attrition will start to begin.
A quick descent, and a nice flat run for some 30 kilometres will set the riders up for the short, sharp test of the second category Alto de Tenebredo. The climb is under four kilometres, but with the climb averaging nearly 10 per cent, this could be where we start to see cracks in the major classification contenders. After such a hard tour to date, expect the unexpected.
The top of the climb is reached after 120 kilometres of racing, with only 65 kilometres left. The riders once again will descend sharply, before more flat roads lead them into the final 45 kilometres which contain the most difficult part of today’s route, with three difficult climbs in succession.
The first of those, the second category climb of the Alto del Cordal, is just over eight kilometres at six per cent. A quick, technical descent follows which leads them into the only category one climb on today’s parcours, the Alto de Cobertoria.
This climb is a brute in its own right, with the 10-kilometre climb averaging out at around nine per cent, with gradients of up to 13 per cent. The test is lesser in gradient at the bottom (first two kilometres at around seven per cent) and the top (the last two around five per cent), which may assist riders who are initially struggling to work into the gradient.
However, if a rider is struggling when the front group summits the penultimate climb at 19 kilometres, you would be safe to presume they will not feature heavily in the final, with the hors category climb of the Alto Ermita del Alba averaging nearly 12 per cent for 6.5 kilometres. With sections of the climb over 20 per cent, today’s finale will be thrilling to watch.
Expect once again both Movistar and Astana to dominate the pacemaking on the preceeding climbs to the finale. However, on the final climb itself, with how steep the gradient is, I think the race will be man against man, with team helpers being quickly left behind.
The riders to watch out for today include Esteban Chaves, Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez, Fabio Aru, Mikel Landa, Alejandro Valverde, Rafal Majka, Domenico Pozzovivo, Mikel Nieve, Louis Meintjes and Daniel Moreno.
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