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The first elimination final of the NRL finals this weekend sees the Canterbury Bulldogs take on the St George Illawarra Dragons, and while the Dragons have been written off from all corners, I can see a massive upset occurring.
The Dragons have been in bad – no, let’s change that – absolutely disgusting form lately and were lucky to scrape into the finals.
It’s a far cry from the halfway point in the season, when they were the surprise packets sitting on top of the ladder.
As a fan of the club, it was then incredibly hard to watch them fall. They lost seven games in a row – including to the likes of the Parramatta Eels and the Cronulla Sharks – and didn’t look like challenging anyone in the comp.
While the other games during the losing streak came against the Canterbury Bulldogs, Sydney Roosters, North Queensland Cowboys, South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Melbourne Storm – which are by no stretch of the imagination easy games – it was the way they were getting beaten that was most worrying for the fans, and coach Paul McGregor.
Their attack didn’t look like registering a point and their defence didn’t look like stopping many from coming in. It was a horrific period of time.
Since the end of that losing streak, the Dragons have regathered enough form to barely scrape into the finals off the back of some horrible losses by the Manly Sea Eagles against the Eels and Roosters.
However, they also recorded impressive wins against out-of-form teams missing the eight, such as the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights. For a short period of time it looked like that magic touch was coming back before they took on the Penrith Panthers and won in one of the worst games of the season.
They then proceeded to lose to the Gold Coast Titans before taking out a nail-biter against the Wests Tigers last Saturday to qualify for the finals.
The Tigers game, despite the final scoreline and allowing Wests back in in the final 20 minutes, had a lot more promise for the Dragons. Their attack looked to be clicking and their defence, albeit against poor attack, was firing on all cylinders for the majority of the game.
The Dragon scored 32 points without their key attacking weapon, Gareth Widdop, who should return for Week 1 of the finals when the Dragons again travel to ANZ Stadium in Homebush to take on the Bulldogs.
I can only think that being written off – both here on The Roar, in wider media circles and even on social media by their own fans – is a good thing for the team. They were first earlier in the season and while it is easy to forget that based on recent form, they will be keen to prove a point by going deep into the finals.
You also have to remember that the Dragons beat the Bulldogs once earlier in the season, and were it not for some very dubious refereeing decisions, could have done it twice. The Dragons haven’t been that far behind the Bulldogs this season.
It’s also worth remembering the Bulldogs have had an up-and-down, roller-coaster season. Based on their last two games, where they were almost beaten by the Knights and then the Warriors, it is easy to forget that like the Dragons they have had some good games this season.
Who could forget their demolition of the Rabbitohs a few weeks ago?
However the Bulldogs have been inconsistent at best this season, and if they put on a display like they have for the last two weeks could struggle to match it with a Dragons side playing to their potential.
So how do the Dragons actually beat the Bulldogs? Follow the formula that worked early in the season, with a few tweaks.
Finals footy is all about winning the battle in the middle. The difference between these two forward packs is the size – the Bulldogs are a huge pack. It is a massive advantage. So the Dragons’ much faster, more mobile pack must run them around and let their attacking players gel with repeated pressure on the Bulldogs’ goal-line.
With the likes of Widdop, Benji Marshall, and Josh Dugan running around, a try could come from anywhere, and repeated pressure on the Bulldogs line will lead to this. The Dragons are a leading team for most forced drop outs this season, and it will be the way to mount pressure on a Bulldogs pack which tires easily.
A high-paced game is key for the Dragons.
Their second-row combination is also crucial. Joel Thompson and Tyson Frizell are two of the best in the game, and Frizell’s combination with Marshall at times this year has been brilliant. If they can build pressure and then have that combination unleash, the Bulldogs will have a very hard time keeping the Dragons out.
The Dragons could well cause one of the biggest upsets of the 2015 NRL finals on Saturday night.
The bottom line is, I would not be writing off the Dragons just yet!
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde