I don’t think I’m getting too far ahead of myself when I say this will be the most important game of football that’s been played all year.
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After all, the home-and-away season is just a lead-up to the finals, and it’s this game that will shape the finals.
Like a cheesy plot point in a time travel movie, this game is what it all turns on – the finals series, and the eventual premiers, will in some way be decided by the result of this game.
When West Coast and Hawthorn go head to head on Friday night the prize for the winner will be a week’s rest and a home preliminary final.
On the other hand, the loser will have to play a semi-final the next week, and assuming they win that, will be on the back foot, possibly needing to travel interstate for a prelim.
Should the Hawks win, they won’t need to travel again this finals series, but if they lose, they’ll need to travel to Perth or Sydney again in the third week.
My theory is that if the Hawks win this week they’ll coast through to the grand final for the fourth year running, and they’ll probably win it.
However if the Hawks lose, they may struggle to make the grand final and that will give both West Coast and Fremantle a genuine chance of winning the flag this year.
So, it’s a big game. But enough about what it could mean for either side to win it – who’s going to?
These two teams are very similar in a lot of ways. They’re the two best attacking teams in the competition, both finishing head and shoulders above the rest for points scored in 2015.
They both have really mutli-faceted forward lines – they don’t just rely on one or two players, they’ve got a wide variety of different players available, all of whom could realistically kick a handful of goals in any given week.
Like the Hydra, cut off one head and two more will take its place. The situation’s not quite that dire but the point is the more effort you put into shutting down Jarryd Roughead or Josh J Kennedy, the more Jack Gunston or Mark LeCras is free to roam.
Of course, they both have strong midfields, capable of winning the ball and moving it forward to create scoring opportunities. They average similar numbers of clearances, contested possessions and inside 50s per game.
Where are they different? The ruck is one of the key areas where these two teams differ significantly. While the Eagles enjoy silver-platter service from Nic Naitanui – ably supported by Callum Sinclair – the Hawks are still unsure which combination of Ben McEvoy, David Hale and Jonathon Ceglar suits them best.
If Naitanui has a big game it’ll go a long way towards putting West Coast in the winner’s column. Similarly, if the Hawks find a good way to combat him and limit his influence, it’ll be a massive boost to their chances.
Defence is also a bit different for either team. The Hawks have a relatively experienced backline including the likes of Brian Lake, Josh Gibson and Ben Stratton, while the Eagles on the other hand have been forced by injuries to run a young backline this year, spearheaded by Jeremy McGovern.
The Eagles defenders have proved themselves worthy, supported by some great team defence further up the ground, but the risk of their backline breaking down under the pressure of finals will be there regardless.
There are some more intangible factors as well. Will the Eagles lack of finals experience – in comparison to Hawthorn at least – cost them this opportunity? They last won a final in 2012 while Hawthorn’s record in recent years is well known.
Historically speaking, finals are the domain of experienced teams. But, there are always exceptions.
How much will a home ground advantage work in the Eagles favour? They enjoy massive support there, and there’s no doubt it boosts the team. It might give them the edge they need.
How will both clubs handle recent injuries? Isaac Smith and Chris Masten are both unlikely to play. Smith is definitely the bigger loss of the two but it’s not so much who you lose, but who you replace them with.
Billy Hartung will come in for the Hawks if Smith doesn’t pull up and he’s been a good, inexperienced option this year for them. The Eagles probably don’t have an obvious go-to player and that might be a problem for them.
All things considered, it’s fitting that a game with this much riding on it is one so evenly-matched. I have a feeling that, one way or the other, it’s going to be remembered as an absolute classic.
As far as a prediction goes, I’d say this is one that really can go either way. My head say the Hawks are the logical favourite to get the job done, but I can’t silence the voice in my head that says: go Eagles!
West Coast by 12 points.
Oh, and just as a little lighthearted note, despite begging the AFL for special permission not to do so, the Hawks have been told they have to wear their exceedingly awful silver-and-gold Power Ranger clash guernsey. So, that’ll be fun.
Chief certainly gave David King the details he wanted!
Will it get the Hawks ready for a crucial clash with North Melbourne?
Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
Collingwood premiership defender Nathan Murphy has been forced into a premature and immediate AFL retirement through concussion to prioritise a "full and healthy life"…
Geelong has been crafty and creative in its list management and has quietly assembled a very exciting young group of midfielders and half-forwards.
Brisbane co-captain Lachie Neale will be looking to lead his team to a victory against Melbourne in what will be his 250th AFL game.
