With Spring racing almost upon us there is no better time to review betting methodology and make a serious attempt to win consistently, or at least keep losses to a minimum.
Below are some common sense tips to assist in increasing betting profit this Spring.
1. Seek value at double-figure prices
The secret to winning in all betting forms is to find value, and thoroughbred horse racing is certainly no different.
I have failed to make a profit at prices below $5, and rest assured I would very rarely bet a poorly credentialed horse at or under that quote. You have to find enough winners at double figures or better to supplement the losses you are inevitably going to sustain at these shorter prices.
There is no better example than the big Spring races in Melbourne, especially at Flemington, when favourite betting on every race is perilous logic at best. These races often have several winning chances, so you need to be disciplined in your approach to finding value and ignore what isn’t.
Finding value also means shopping around for the best price, and can mean the difference between winning and losing on your betting long term.
Have at least two separate betting accounts with different agencies (tote and corporate perhaps), and assess a minimum price that you would accept before doing so.
2. The first-upper (a horse resuming from a spell)
This is generally denoted in a horse’s last-start form figure as an X or an S and refers to a break of two months or more since it last raced.
It is amazing just how many horses start at ridiculously short quotes resuming from a spell, and run well below the expectations of their price. The reason they are a short quote is largely because of what they achieved in their last preparation, or they have barrier trialled impressively, or maybe a combination of both.
They look sound bets, but in reality they aren’t fit enough to produce the form they showed months ago, or in the case of the barrier trial, haven’t been subjected to the pressure they are going to face in a competitive race.
Often they are better class horses too, that have to shoulder big weights against inferior opponents. Their lack of fitness affects their ability to concede the weight, and a lower class and lightly weighted horse will often triumph.
Quite often a horse is completely incapable of recapturing the form they showed last preparation. Some prefer different seasons, or maybe the heroics they produced in their last campaign took more out of them than anticipated.
Other factors to consider when assessing these horses:
My suggestion in regard to betting first up horses is to mainly invest when these four factors are common:
A) Good to Slow tracks only
B) Don’t bet them at 1400m unless it is a WFA race
C) Statistics show that it can race well fresh
D. Each-way odds (at least $2 for a place) or better
Contributer, Ball Of Muscle, Alpine Eagle, Vancouver, Gregers, and Rudy are recent examples of short-priced, Group class horses that failed to win first up.
3. Horses rising in class
This is another aspect of Australian racing where it is essential to obtain value and ignore short odds. You will surely miss a few winners, but it won’t cost you anything in the long term. The biggest losses will be incurred in these two areas.
If you must bet horses in either of these categories (I don’t recommend it), ignore the ones going around at short odds, and set yourself a target of at least each-way.
4. Three-year-old races
While very common in all Australian states at carnival time, particularly during the Melbourne Spring, Spring is probably the worst time to invest in them.
Without the necessary exposed form to peruse it’s just a best guess for trainers and punters alike. You can make an educated guess on breeding, but until the horse attempts a distance, nothing is certain.
Don’t take short odds on any three-year-old. If you want to take a three-year-old race seriously this Spring, make it the Caulfield Guineas, which has some sound historical statistics to analyse and find the winner – quite often at a value quote.
5. Do some historical research on Group and listed races
A number of races at the bigger carnivals have excellent historical data to analyse that can find you the next winner.
Find the honour roll of winners (Wikipedia is a good place to start), and use a good form database to find out what factors they had in common, then apply the same logic to the race at hand.
Three races in particular during the Melbourne Spring have some excellent historical precedents that can more or less lead you to the winner – the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, Caulfield Guineas, and Melbourne Cup.
Watch this space if you don’t have the time or inclination to assess these races yourself.
It’s also wise to remember that the average winning price in the Group class handicap races (1, 2 and 3) is consistently around a double-figure quote over a long period of time. Those fields are generally large in number, therefore the pursuit of longer odds becomes even more paramount.
And these races are more often that not won by an in-form horse down in the weights – a horse that is on the improve, with more ability and potential than the handicapper has yet been able to penalise.
Summing up
It’s imperative to look for value, and shopping around for the best price is essential.
Try to eliminate three-year-old races where there isn’t a great deal of exposed form, and concentrate on horses you know have fitness on their side, are in decent form, and preferably are well-weighted.
Avoid horses first up at 1400m wherever possible, any horse that wins a maiden race stepping up in class, or wins at the provincials and comes straight to the metro area.
Finally, do some historical research on the big Group 1 races – it can prove rewarding.
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