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David Kirk, Rhodes Scholar, All Blacks World-Cup winning captain and businessman, is rarely caught short on answering a question.
But he was momentarily flummoxed when he was asked at a rugby lunch by The Australian’s veteran rugby writer Wayne Smith to answer this question: “In a word, who going to win and lift the Webb Ellis Cup in England?”
After a hesitation, Kirk made a smart recovery: “Oh no, how do I say New Zealand in one word … or the All Blacks!”
At the same lunch, John Eales gave a more guarded answer to Wayne Smith’s question. “It’s more relevant talking about who could win it than who will win it,” he responded.
Then he sort of covered most of the bases: “We all know New Zealand could win it. We all know England being the home side could win. We know that Australia has beaten everyone in the world in the last few years. South Africa has too. And then there is France, everyone knows their danger.”
Then the cautious Eales made an acute observation:”But one of the interesting scenarios is there are a couple of teams who may not be able to beat everyone in the comp, but if someone else beats someone for them, then they could get up and win.”
The point here, and I agree with it totally, is that the best team does not necessarily with the Rugby World Cup tournament. The best team in the tournament wins.
In several Rugby World Cup tournaments, the best team in world has actually won the Webb Ellis trophy. The Wallabies in 1991 and 1999, England in 2003 and the All Blacks in 2011 were the best teams in the world when they won their Rugby World Cup tournaments.
But in 1987, the All Blacks, and in 1995 and 2007, the Springboks, won the Rugby World Cup tournament when the Wallabies (1986 and 1994) and the All Blacks (2007) going into the tournament were the best teams in world rugby.
The point is this, Rugby World Cup tournaments, like all tournaments, take on a reality of their own until their climax in the final.
The All Blacks won Rugby World Cup 1987 without having to play the favourites, Alan Jones’ Wallabies.
The Springboks won Rugby World Cup 2007 without having to play the All Blacks or the Wallabies, two sides that had their measure when playing Tests out of South Africa at that time.
There are going to be upsets in Rugby World Cup 2015, as there have been in all the other World Cup tournaments. But which team is going to be the victim of the inevitable boilover? Or, more importantly, which side can create a boilover?
It was interesting that John Eales did not mention Ireland, a side that two years came with a couple of seconds and a missed Johnny Sexton sitter of a penalty miss of defeating the All Blacks at Dublin and the best side in Europe for a couple of years.
This reminds me of a hapless prediction I made before Rugby World Cup 2007 in my book, How To Win The World Cup, where I suggested that five teams could win, the usual suspects of the Wallabies, All Blacks, France, Wales and England, and did NOT include the eventual winner, the South African Springboks. Oh dear!
Is leaving out Ireland for Rugby World Cup 2015 a case of John Eales emulating a Rugby World Cup 2007 Spiro moment?
As it happens, Bill Farrell and Elsa Jordan, forensic data analysts at EY, have worked out that Ireland “may have its best opportunity to beat the All Blacks for the first time at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.”
They say it is “feasible” that Ireland may face the All Blacks in a quarter-final, or the final.
If Ireland do face the All Blacks, they would face a side that has ‘historically’ maintained a performance cycle in 10 consecutive Tests, essentially of peaks, where they never had a long losing streak or big losses. In the last 15 years, the All Blacks have had an average points difference of 16 over their opponents.
Ireland, on the other hand, have an average 10-match point difference during the last 15 years of 1.7. But they have won the last two Six Nations tournaments.
Ireland and the All Blacks have played each other since 1905. Ireland have never won in the 28 Tests.
The EY analysts quote The Rule of 3, where the probability of a very rare events is three, divided by the number of observations: “In this instance, the probability of Ireland defeating the All Blacks is 3/28 = 11 per cent.”
But, “if we consider a five-point loss or less as a near miss, the probability of a win against New Zealand is 21 per cent. Taking only the near misses from the past five years into account raises Ireland’s chances to 33 per cent.”
Another consideration is that the All Blacks have a low probability of losing an away match (27 per cent). The Irish have a tendency to lose away matches (65 per cent).
EY’s conclusion: “Combining the outcomes of different approaches we predict a 25 per cent – to 35 per cent chance of an Ireland win over the All Blacks within the next 12 months.”
The key for Ireland is to get to the finals by defeating France in Pool D (France, Ireland, Italy, Canada, Romania) in their pool round clash. If they do this, it means that they avoid meeting the All Blacks in the quarter-final at Cardiff.
A senior Irish rugby writer, Gerry Thornley, is predicting an All Blacks-Wales final, with a third Webb Ellis trophy for New Zealand. Oh ye of little faith!
Sir Graham Henry, a rugby coaching great who knows a lot about these things, is predicting the Wallabies to be “likely” finalists.
Henry argues that the Wallabies will be “battle hardened” after emerging from Pool A, the hardest pool in the tournament, or any other tournament, in my view.
Henry is impressed with Michael Cheika’s success in lifting the Wallabies from six in the world to two this year. “They will be good and keep on getting better. I think they could well be finalists.”
But a lot depends on how the Wallabies progress through their “pool of death.”
Here we can call in the help of the Wallaby great George Smith with his fearless predictions: “I think Fiji are going through with Australia.” More than that, Smith believes the Wallabies can win their third Webb Ellis trophy, if the All Blacks get tripped up somewhere on their journey: “I believe Australia will win the World Cup but I hope they aren’t facing New Zealand in the final.”
A round-robin discussion on Stuff between the New Zealand rugby writers, Liam Napier, Richard Knowler and Toby Robson, found them agreeing with each other that the All Blacks would play England in the final – with the All Blacks likely winners.
Paul Cully, whose rugby writing has graced The Roar, has predicted in Rugby Heaven that the Wallabies, France, England and the All Blacks will be the final four.
The Wallabies, though, have to win their pool which would give them, presumably, a quarter-final against the Pumas and a semi-final against France, both winnable games.
The crucial match for the Wallabies, therefore, is against England on October 4. If the Wallabies lose they go into the Springboks and All Blacks half of the finals draw, as they did in Rugby World Cup 2011 (provided, of course, they defeat Fiji and Wales).
But if the Wallabies come out as winners of Pool A, they get into the opposite side of the finals draw from the two southern hemisphere powers, which is a much easier road to the final. This is the route France took, despite two defeats in the pool rounds, to reach the final of Rugby World Cup 2011.
Readers of The Roar will know that I am one of the few non-gambling Greeks in Bondi Junction. There is a good reason for this, as those who have studied my Super Rugby tipping form and previous Rugby World Cup predictions will understand.
The 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament will see over $100 million bet on the various games in the UK alone. The bookmakers need to get their odds right to make money from this orgy of gambling. They have made the All Blacks favourites to win the Webb Ellis trophy for the third time with the extremely tight odds of 6/5.
I know, I know. No team has won back-to-back Rugby World Cup tournaments. The All Blacks have never won the Webb Ellis trophy outside of New Zealand.
But I am going with the people who put their money where their mouth is and make the fearless prediction: The All Blacks will win Rugby World Cup 2015.
Has the Spiro kiss of death been delivered?