With the Melbourne spring being restructured to accommodate a later AFL grand final, this week’s Caulfield card has been diluted of Group-quality racing. No such shortage at Randwick however, with the Group 1, weight-for-age George Main Stakes being held over 1600m for a $500,000 purse.
With the George Main complemented by some key Group 2 events, most racing eyes are on Sydney this weekend.
The formlines of those contesting the George Main are consistent, with all runners having their lead-up in either the Chelmsford Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, WFA) or the Tramway Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, set weights and penalties).
Kermadec is the rightful favourite after two runs in this prep, both of which were arguably the best runs in those races, and he peaks now with trainer Chris Waller having set the horse for this race from the outset.
Kermadec proved his Group 1 credentials in both Melbourne and Sydney over the autumn, culminating in a dominant Doncaster win, and he looks to have graduated to WFA class, but now has to put that winning stamp on one. He was second in the Chelmsford, unable to catch the leader, which won at bolters odds, but should be ready now.
Assuming jockey Glyn Schofield ensures a trouble-free run from a middle barrier in this field of 10, he appears to tick every box, and can be backed with confidence.
Stablemate Royal Descent returned to her place-getting ways in the Chelmsford, third in that race, but one-and-a-half lengths from Kermadec. Her record at the Randwick mile is quite amazing, seven starts for seven placings but no wins, a reputation for ‘always the bridesmaid, never the bride’ certainly well-earned.
She’s a tough, hardy, redoubtable mare who will keep the others honest as usual.
Pornichet was the disappointment of the Chelmsford, battling away to the line in a manner that made something of a mockery of his prominent position in Cox Plate markets before the race. That said, he will have come on from that run, and was only a couple of lengths behind Kermadec at the finish.
From barrier nine, Blake Shinn will likely take him forward to sit outside the probable leader, Hooked, and he’ll have his chance to not let the others get passed him. If he’s beaten, you get the sense that it will only be late in the piece.
Moriarty is the last of the George Main runners coming from the Chelmsford, and hasn’t been getting his chance to win by settling too far back in his two runs this campaign so far, but appears to be ticking over nicely.
The fact Waller has chosen to run him in this rather than the more obvious option of the Hill Stakes over 2000m suggests that he is capable of springing a surprise, particularly if they rattle along up front, but ultimately it’s hard to see him beating them all.
The Tramway Stakes is the other key lead-up, providing six of the 10 runners here.
Hooked led all the way to win that event on a day he was suited to. He’s been a fairly honest horse across his career, but has never really made an impression either at WFA or Group 1 level. It’s possible that he’s improved again into his five-year-old season.
I probably need to see him do it again before I can trust what he produced first-up, but he’ll have his supporters in a race devoid of any obvious speed.
Lucia Valentina produced her patented first-up run, an eye-catching performance from the tail, and is better suited at WFA that she was under the SWP format of the Tramway.
Her biggest issue is that those blazing first-up runs are usually followed by a flat second-up showing, and her second-up record (4: 0-0-0) is a sobering statistic for her supporters.
Kirramosa, the third of three mares in this race, accompanied Lucia Valentina across the line in the Tramway, just shading her in fact.
She never got going last spring, and it’s possible that winning the Wakeful and Crown Oaks in the space of six days as a three-year-old took it out of her, particularly given the Oaks was a tough race, but she looks to have benefited from a long break.
Sweynesse is an intriguing horse, always respected in what he contests, but he’s now winless in his last seven starts after winning his first four, and he needs to start putting a bit more score on the board.
He didn’t have the easiest time of it after drawing wide first-up in the Tramway, and his second-up run in the autumn, beaten less than a length behind Hallowed Crown in the Randwick Guineas at this track and distance, stays in the mind. He’s a value runner.
Hauraki, for Godolphin, and Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist both settled back and stayed there in the Tramway, and will appreciate the gradual step up in distance as they progress towards the staying races, but it’s hard to make a case for either here.
Selections:
1. Kermadec 2. Sweynesse 3. Pornicht 4. Royal Descent
If you don’t necessarily trust Complacent as favourite in the Hill Stakes, and I don’t, then good luck finding the winner.
The second-elect is Magic Hurricane, hitting WFA for the first time, having to carry the 59kgs after only carrying an average of 54 in his four Australian starts so far. He’s also a risk.
Waller will have his army of runners, the Lloyd Williams stable has a couple of runners too, which always adds an element of intrigue.
The Tea Rose Stakes has assembled an even field of fillies, and the pick might be Perignon, whose last two outings, split by six months, have seen her run second to Speak Fondly. There’s no shame in not being able to catch that filly, and Perignon gets her chance to break through at black type level from a gun draw.
She’s ready to tackle 1400m for the first time after working home well first-up in the Furious, the Gerald Ryan stable is confident, and there are no better hands to be guiding her than Hugh Bowman.
The Shorts, over 1100m, is the other Group 2 on the Randwick card, and sees the return of Terravista, who was unable to beat the likes of Brazen Beau and Chautauqua in the autumn, not recording a victory last preparation.
He’s clearly and obviously the one to beat, but Rebel Dane looks to be a little bit of value first-up, and is capable of winning if he’s back to his beat.
In Melbourne, the Naturalism is the feature race of the day, with the winner guaranteed entry into the Caulfield Cup.
The United States is the one to beat, but there are a good six or eight legitimate winning chances outside of him, and my spies tell me that the word Almoonqith is actually Arabic for “back me once the blinkers go on”. He appeals at attractive double-figure odds.
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