The feature race in New Zealand today is the Windsor Park Plate, Race 8 at Hastings (2:20pm AEST), and exciting five-year-old Savabeel gelding Kawi is the headline act, given his outstanding win in the Makfi Challenge Stakes (1400m) at the same venue three weeks ago.
He circled the field on turning in that race, and proved way too strong over the concluding stages for the very game and somewhat unlucky runner-up Ryan Mark.
The Makfi was the first leg of the New Zealand Triple Crown series, and no horse has yet been able to claim the Hastings holy grail. At distances comprising 1400m, 1600m and 2040m it’s no easy task, and probably requires a horse with a certain sense of timing.
With seven wins and six placings from 15 starts, Kawi could be that horse.
Despite the tremendous strike rate, Kawi is a bit of a late bloomer, having only won his first Group 1 race as a late four-year-old in April this year, the Easter Handicap over a mile at Ellerslie.
That same race trip at Hastings would seem an ideal progression for a horse that looked to be crying out for even more distance last start.
New Plymouth trainer Alan Sharrock seems to have him peaking at the right time to complete the elusive hat trick in the Livamol classic (2040m) at Hastings. He should only have to overcome an awkward barrier to set up a promoter’s dream in two weeks’ time.
He is a horse capable of putting himself in the right position whatever the circumstance, and seems capable of enduring a tough run if need be. So highly is he regarded by the stable that he was given to a Cox Plate preparation this Spring, but that plan was shelved in favour of the Triple Crown push.
All going well though, he will almost certainly be crossing the Tasman some time next year.
If there was an unlucky runner in the Makfi last start it was probably four-year-old stallion Turn Me Loose, who was first-up at 1400m and given no peace up front on a fast tempo. He should get a far easier time of it in this race, and does have a career best Group 1 win at 1600m on his resume.
He was 3.5 lengths away in sixth last start, which was his first missed placing in six starts. Even more appetising is his two from two second-up record thus far in his career, so we can expect a big run from him tomorrow, and he possibly looms as the one to beat.
Addictive Habit should get the gun run from Barrier 1. He is one of very few in this race to have won at this track (two from five) and the only horse to have won in Australia. He is very partial to 1600m, wet ground, and three weeks or more between runs, so looks at least a good place-chance from up on the pace. He may have lost his fitness advantage over a few of these but he won’t have gone backwards either. Any rain and his prospects will soar.
Five-year-old High Chaparral mare Pondarosa Miss is a big favourite of mine. It’s twelve months since she crashed to the turf head-first at this track and distance. The horrific fall left her with a broken skull and the likelihood of her ever racing again seemed a little remote.
Such is her resilience though she was back at the track less than four months later and bolting in at Te Rapa by three lengths in an amazing first-up performance. It’s just a pity that in 10 starts since she has only won once more, but she did run a good third in the Auckland Cup over 3200m behind Rock Diva.
It would be lovely to see her win this race, but she does need to improve on her first two starts this preparation. Blinkers are being removed, which have been applied for some time, so maybe that will bring about the necessary improvement. A recent easy trial win has my hopes up, and a spike in her form might even see her Melbourne Cup-bound – that was the plan earlier this year.
Shuka is a seven-year-old gelding who drew a bad barrier in this race last year, yet produced an eye-catching finish off a 21-day break. It’s an interesting ploy this time around to be backing up off only a seven-day break, and he did win off a nine-day break at his second race start. He ran well first-up last week, with a big weight. Barrier 5 is an ideal draw for him, and he might be the big-value runner for at least a placing. Any rain around will definitely benefit him too.
Seven-year-old gelding Nashville was my pick in the Makfi but despite a suitable fast pace up front, he never looked a winning chance. He did run on quite well late though, and a repeat of his 2.5 length 10th behind Boban in the 2013 Emirates Stakes would see him go very close to winning this.
He is an enigmatic type of horse though and Hastings doesn’t appear to be his favourite track; he has run in this race the past two seasons, and come up short both times.
Delago’s Secret won first-up at this trip last preparation in inferior class. He has won three of his last four runs at this distance and is much better performed on anti-clockwise tracks, such as the one at Hastings (though he is yet to race here). He has also never won a race with fewer than 15 days between runs, which tends to suggest he is best fresh.
You can never leave out a horse trained by the astute Roger James and this one looks no exception. Two seemingly poor recent barrier trials seem to have strongly influenced his $101 price though.
Soriano and Puccini would both be winning chances at their best, but appear to need too much improvement off their last runs, while Julinsky Prince does have a fairly recent victory over Kawi, but a poor first-up record. He loves the distance though and a bit of rain would assist his chances.
Summing up and bet advice
Kawi should win, providing he overcomes the barrier at a start that doesn’t exactly lend itself to widely drawn runners.
Turn Me Loose should run well, ditto Addictive Habit. If there is to be a shock result it could come from Shuka, and at the $20-plus price I’d be backing him each way in a race that’s dominated by the market leader Kawi at a less-than-pleasing quote of $2.10.
Taking Kawi as a banker in trifectas with a few of the aforementioned might prove beneficial though.
1. Kawi
2. Turn Me Loose
3. Shuka
4. Addictive Habit
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