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The Sydney Swans should seriously consider taking bold and explosive action, and remove John Longmire as senior coach.
Sydney haven’t missed the finals in the five years Longmire has been at the helm, even winning a premiership in that time. They memorably took out the 2012 flag off the back of slingshot footy, absorbing high opposition inside 50s, before rebounding with pace and precision.
Since then, the Swans have been apparent contenders, but in 2013 and 2015 it was in name only. They stumbled into the finals in the former before being thumped by Hawthorn and Fremantle, and this year they departed in straight sets.
Despite three consecutive top-four finishes, there is no sense of excitement or hope for the immediate future among supporters. Their best under Longmire over the last three seasons has been pretty good, but not good enough to get the job done at the pointy end.
Including finals, Longmire’s men played 10 games against this year’s top eight, and finished up with a 3-7 win-loss record. Two of those wins were against the sides that finished seventh and eighth on the ladder.
They only lost one game to a team outside the top eight, but only recorded one win against the top six sides on the ladder after 22 rounds.
Longmire can fashion a gameplan that is generally not in danger of losing to bottom and mid-tier teams, although it’s arguable that if the Sydney list just trained skills and fitness on their own, the talent available would be enough to win those games anyway.
Taking care of business with a minimum of fuss against middling teams and cannon fodder is an admirable trait, but he now needs to prove that he can get his team not just competing against, but beating, the top tier again. Is it within him?
Ross Lyon put five successful years into St Kilda before moving onto Fremantle. Sometimes that’s the shelf-life a coach has with a particular group of players. Not everyone can be Alastair Clarkson or Kevin Sheedy, and reinvent themselves over a long period of time.
Of course, in the real world, the Swans aren’t going to get rid of Longmire, and the man himself isn’t going to move on. No club would move on a coach after four consecutive top-four finishes, including a flag.
Geelong certainly wouldn’t have done so to Mark Thompson after 2010, yet look what happened to that group with a change at the top, and a rookie coach with fresh ideas – another premiership.
New coaches generally only take over when a club is on the way down, or is close to bottoming out. It’s a tried-and-true formula that is accepted within the footballing zeitgeist. It’s comfortable. It’s predictable. It’s safe.
But look at what Luke Beveridge has produced at the Dogs this season. Adam Simpson has taken West Coast to at least a preliminary final, and probably more, in only his second year. Ken Hinkley immediately drove Port up the ladder in breathtaking fashion.
If rookie coaches of this ilk can get sides from 14th to 6th, 13th to 2nd, and 14th to 5th, why wouldn’t a fresh set of eyes and ideas be able to get Sydney from fourth to first again, just like Chris Scott did at the Cats?
Of course, the reason clubs don’t do it is obvious – imagine the fall-out if that top four team plummeted out of the finals following the change. Why fix what wasn’t broken, would be the haunting theme of the season.
But here’s the thing – Sydney are broken. This is a side that has performed below expectation for three seasons in a row, regardless of how high they’ve actually finished. We’re not judging them against the likes of Melbourne, St Kilda or Collingwood here.
The bar is set considerably higher when two-thirds of your premiership team is still on the list, high profile and expensive recruits like Buddy Franklin and Kurt Tippett have been added and young guns like Isaac Heeney and Tom Mitchell have come in at a high standard.
The Swans have the best forward in the league in Franklin, the best combo second ruck/second tall forward in the league in Tippett, and the best clearance player in the league in Josh Kennedy.
Dan Hannebery may well have a Brownlow to his name this time next week and could already have been a Norm Smith medallist. Luke Parker is the most courageous player in the competition according to his peers, and one of the most dangerous as a goal-kicking mid to boot.
Throw in All-Australians Jarrad McVeigh and Kieren Jack on top of all the names already mentioned, plus others besides, and you have a team that has enough weapons through the midfield and forward of centre to trouble any side.
Sydney’s team defence was still strong in the main through this season, but the back six, a meat-and-potatoes batch of players that Longmire has crafted together, was able to be exposed at key times.
There were five stand-out defences in the AFL home-and-away season, with Fremantle, Hawthorn, West Coast, Richmond and Sydney all conceding around 70 points per game.
The Swans’ backline, despite the numbers, was ageing and vulnerable, particularly against better teams that could move the ball quickly; these opportunities arose whenever the Sydney midfield dropped off their pressure and contested ball-winning ability, an all too frequent occurrence given their experience and talent.
Rhys Shaw has moved on, Ted Richards has only one season left, Heath Grundy is secure in his contract but far from it when the ball is in his hands, Dane Rampe has the unhappy knack of calamitous turnovers at just the wrong time, while Nick Smith will do his role in the anonymous way of back pockets everywhere, and Jeremy Laidler is a neat but non-threatening footballer.
It’s a group of players that needs a major overhaul. In recent seasons we’ve seen McVeigh and Lewis Jetta help out back there. The departure of Nick Malceski, who was 30 anyway, left a hole that wasn’t adequately replaced.
Apart from a change of coach, the Swans are also in need of a quality ruckman, which the trade grapevine suggests they’ll land, a dangerous small forward, and a player of speed and class to replace the underwhelming Lewis Jetta.
Sydney’s time is still now, and should continue to be as long as Buddy can overcome his personal issues and maintain the playing standards that has seen him rated in the top handful of players in the game for the best part of a decade.
In order to maximise the premiership opportunities for the Swans, the playing group needs to be reinvigorated and re-energised, and a change of coach could be just the tonic. Sometimes the best decisions are the boldest. They’re always hard to find, and often even harder to make.
The full potential of this side is waiting to be unlocked and maximised. It’s time to make a change.