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Western Australia’s festival of football kicks off tomorrow in what looms as a match that could decide the fate of Fremantle and Hawthorn in the years ahead.
It’s preliminary final football, and here’s my forecast.
How awesome is it to have the two preliminary finals being played in Western Australia? And, by the way, the WAFL grand final is on Sunday, meaning Subiaco Oval will be put to use for three consecutive days hosting three very important games.
The only way this could be better is if the new Perth Stadium was ready to go. Alas, building new stuff takes time.
Saturday’s game is interesting, for sure, but this one looms larger. Fremantle versus Hawthorn is what I thought the grand final would be heading into the season, and in many ways the stakes are just as high for both teams. Tough questions will be asked of the loser, regardless of who it is.
So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Preliminary final #1
Fremantle Dockers versus Hawthorn Hawks
Friday, September 25, 8:20 (EST)
Subiaco Oval, Perth, Western Australia
When it comes to game style, the two are poles apart. You don’t need me to tell you that, though, it’s been the narrative of the week. But what is interesting, and something I’ve not seen picked up to this point, is the end result of those two different styles.
Fremantle have lost four non-Round 23 white-flag games by an average margin of 33 points, while Hawthorn have lost six games by an average of 11 points.
When these two teams lose, they don’t lose by much. Unless you are Fremantle, and your opponent is Hawthorn. More than half of Fremantle’s combined losing margin in 2015 came in a single game: Round 15’s jaunt down in Tasmania, which saw the Hawks wipe the floor with Freo in a 115-43 victory. If you exclude that loss from Fremantle’s ledger, their average losing margin drops to 20 points.
Where they differ dramatically is in victory, Fremantle have won by an average of 29 points, Hawthorn have won by an average of 61 points.
Does that matter now? It does, and it doesn’t. For the sake of ladder positions during the home-and-away season, percentage tends to be relevant. But once we’re in winner-takes-all final mode, Chapter One, Verse One of the Tao of Dom applies:
“Ask any racer. Any real racer. It don’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile. Winning’s winning.”
With that in mind, who wins by an inch, and who wins by a mile?
The market is on the Hawks, anointing them 3/2 favourites despite this being played at Domain Stadium, and with their opponent coming off a two-week break. Perhaps it was the razzle dazzle of Hawthorn’s 74-point victory over the Adelaide Crows in Week 2 of the finals, and the comparatively meagre nine-point win to Fremantle.
Inches, and miles. There it is again.
The Hawks simply overawed the Crows, who played like a deer in headlights. Hawthorn were the Lamborghini coming the other way.
Alastair Clarkson pulled out some super interesting tactical moves in this one, such as allowing Adelaide lots of time and space through the middle of the ground but stacking his half-back line. Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall and Isaac Smith all had eight or more marks and 19 or more uncontested possessions, and gave the Hawks an unrelenting drive which they converted into 30 scoring shots.
The other was more pertinent to tomorrow’s game, and it was a tactic Clarkson employed with great effect against Fremantle in Round 15 – putting up a brick wall at stoppage situations.
Fremantle and Adelaide were the first and third strongest teams around the clinches during the regular season (Hawthorn were second), putting up +7.2 and +3.7 on clearance differential throughout the year. I dare say (#freethestats) that both teams generate a lot of their scores from clearances, particularly relative to the rest of the competition.
For the Dockers, their dominance was driven by the likes of David Mundy and Nat Fyfe, who would pluck the ball using their handling skills and size, and simply waltz out of the front of the pack. In those first 14 rounds, Fremantle lost the clearance count by more than two just once (against Sydney), and looked set to ride set piece dominance all the way to October.
Hawthorn put a stop to that. The Hawks obliterated Fremantle 30-49, which was the Dockers’ heaviest defeat in set piece situations for 2015. Here are a couple of examples of Hawthorn’s brick wall tactic from the first quarter (the only competitive quarter) of the Round 15 encounter.
Notice as the stoppage evolves here that there are even numbers in the play. Both sides are directing traffic, Stephen Hill to the right is pointing out the two Hawthorn riders that are set on the left side, while Luke Hodge is imploring his charges to stay in place.
Nat Fyfe, who had Hodge for company at this point in the game, is circling the ruck contest, and as you can see in the screen below ends up on the complete opposite side of the pack to Hodge.
Similarly, Sam Mitchell allows Lachie Neal, his direct opponent, to get on the defensive side of the pack, preferring to hang back and let the contest evolve. Once Fremantle take possession, Hodge and Mitchell rush in and stop the ball from moving forward effectively – this one evolves into a quick kick from the back of the pack by Fyfe, which results in a turnover and an inside 50 for the Hawks.
Take this one from a little later in the quarter. There are four unmarked Hawks playing off the back of the pack, and as you can see from the blur in the footage Fyfe again is allowed to separate from Hodge, who moves to the front of the stoppage. Liam Shiels also lets Mundy move right into the clinches, preferring to stop the clearance possession from occurring.
Since their Hawthorn shellacking, Fremantle have upped their rating, almost cracking double digits on clearance differential in their final eight games for the year. Hawthorn have been a little more pedestrian in the set piece coming home, but have taken their kick and mark game to new heights.
That was perhaps the biggest discrepancy between the two sides last time they met. Hawthorn had 50 more marks and 122 more uncontested possessions than Fremantle, both the largest deficits the Dockers have conceded in 2015.
It makes what happens through the middle of the ground ever so critical, and the Dockers simply must plan for the same treatment on Friday. And this, to me, will see Lyon put a line through Ryan Crowley when the teams are announced later today. Crowley would simply make it easier for Hawthorn to apply their negative clearance tactics, by swapping an offensive player for a defensive one.
But don’t rule out a Ross Lyon special in one form or another.
If the Hawks do seek to throw up the brick wall, Fremantle would be well served simply matching up on Hawthorn’s markers – add more congestion, stop Hawthorn from getting the upper hand. This will turn the game into a scrap, which helps Fremantle and is likely neutral for the Hawks.
So if Fremantle’s inside game is important, then Hawthorn’s outside game is just as important. In their 16 victories, Hawthorn have kicked the ball 41 times more than their opponent, in losses they’ve kicked the ball five times less than their opponents. Kicking differential is an underrated and never sighted statistic, but it’s super important as an indicator, particularly for teams like Hawthorn.
In their Round 15 encounter, the Hawks kicked the ball 82 more times than Fremantle. That sort of differential translates to territory.
How do you stop your opponent from kicking more than you? Close down the space, disallow the spread, and man the hell up. A rested Fremantle will be in a very good position to do just that. And if they do, the Dockers may just be able to keep Hawthorn to a gettable score from their perspective.
But equally, Hawthorn have shown throughout the year that they can put up substantial scores even when they don’t get their outside game going. The Hawks won three games by more than ten10goals in games that they broke even or slightly lost the uncontested possession count (Geelong, St Kilda and Sydney). In those three games, Hawthorn scored 123, 132 and 146 points.
Hmm.
It comes down to their multiple avenues to goal. I mean, Hodge bobbed up and kicked three goals last weekend (and, indeed, he did so against the Dockers in Round 15), and Luke Breust got fed after starving for the previous four weeks. The Hawks will do everything they can to keep the ball in their possession once it gets clear of stoppages, and work their various attacking angles with much fervour.
It’ll take an all-time defensive performance from Fremantle – not unlike the freight train they used to crush Sydney in their 2013 home preliminary final – to keep this close, and even then the Hawks will still probably put up a score of 80-plus.
That’s the way Fremantle have tried to do it all year; well, since Round 10 or so. It doesn’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile, winning is winning. I think Fremantle have what it takes to keep Hawthorn contained, bringing this game on to their terms. They have had two weeks of rest and most of their players left the state in five weeks.
And I think we’re all discounting Fremantle’s ability to score at a decent clip. Sure, they haven’t done it recently, but a forward line made up of Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne, Michael Walters, Hayden Ballantyne and a resting ruckman and midfielder looks good on paper.
When the forward line was at its best, it was being fed the ball quickly as a result of the team’s stoppage dominance or incisive ball movement. The Dockers have an outside game, too, remember. It’s just been hibernating. Maybe.
The market has the Hawks. I have the Dockers. Fremantle will win this one by an inch – one goal.
But I will hedge a little here. While I’m backing the Dockers, I will say this: if Hawthorn do win, it will be by a mile. Ten goals or more.
That’s my preliminary final forecast, what’s yours?