Race 8 at Caulfield on Saturday (4.45pm AEST) sees the 2015 running of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, a 1400-metre Group 1 race that throws up some amazing historical precedents that probably no other race in Australia can match.
For that reason it is my favourite race of the spring. It has been quite easy to predict in recent years and has probably eclipsed the Stradbroke Handicap as the premier 1400-metre handicap race in the country.
I’m utilising 25 years of data and remarkably 14 winners in that time have been an entire (a horse or colt, not a gelding). That factor alone accounts for 56 per cent of winners in that period, and over half of those (9) have been four years of age.
There have been four three-year-old Colts, and two five-year-old stallions win in this period. In last year’s race there were six entires engaged and they amazingly finished in the first eight placings.
Another factor that has played a major factor is the lead-up race. The most prolific is clearly the Bobbie Lewis Quality run down the straight at Flemington, two weeks prior. It has provided nine of the past 25 winners, including four of the last eight.
Interestingly, only one of those actually won the Bobbie Lewis (Bon Hoffa in 2007), though every horse that has come out of that race to win the Sir Rupert Clarke (bar one), has finished top five in that race. Four of the last five Bobbie Lewis representatives that went on to win this have been entires, and three of those have been four-year-olds.
Mares only have an average record in the race with just four winners in the past 25 runnings, and none have come out of the Bobbie Lewis. Three of the four winners have came via the Let’s Elope Stakes.
Barriers have played little consequence in the outcome of this race so I think it is best not to be put off by wider draws. Both Rebel Dane last year (barrier 14) and Moment Of Change in 2012 (barrier 15) are strong recent examples that suggest if the horse is good enough it can still win.
The weight range between 49-55.5 kilograms has provided 20 of the past 25 winners, which might help us whittle down the chances this year.
Jockey Craig Williams knows what it takes to win the race having been successful on four of the past 10 occasions, and Damien Oliver has won the race six times since 1990.
Nine of the last 15 winners have been four-year-olds and the likelihood of that age winning seems very high again this year, and more probable given no three-year-olds are engaged (why oh why?). Once again it could see an entire win.
Below is a review of the best four-year-olds plus five-year-old entires running in the race this year.
Rich Enuff is a four-year-old entire who started a hot favourite in the Caulfield Guineas last spring. He won three of his first four career starts but hasn’t won in five starts coming into this race. He has been disappointing at shortish prices in two starts this spring and needs to find a couple of lengths improvement to figure from a very wide barrier.
Rich Enuff probably can’t lead with Charmed Harmony also in the race, but taking a sit behind that horse might prove beneficial. He needs to lift but it’s hard to ignore he is a four-year-old entire, and given that factor the early $15 about him is worth considering.
Under the Louvre is a five-year-old entire who looks ready to peak for this race, despite the fact he is yet to win a race with less than 15 days between runs. His first up run was well below his normal performance level, so I can only assume he was severely underdone for that assignment and is being trained a bit differently this preparation.
Under the Louvre was back to himself second up, flying home to just miss in the Bobbie Lewis which is a great guide to this race. His stats suggest he is a better horse at 1200 metres than 1400 metres, but he is older now and is perhaps looking for this trip. He has drawn nicely and a hot speed up front is going to suit him admirably. Lots of positives and he looks a major winning chance.
Amicus is a four-year-old mare who comes out of winning the Let’s Elope Stakes last start. That race has provided three of the past four female winners (since 1990), and two of those did also win that race prior. She won the Thousand Guineas at Group 1 level last October at this track and she seems to be a better mare this spring having won both her starts this preparation.
Amicus’s time at Flemington in her latest win wasn’t that inferior to Disposition at the same distance on the same day. She drops 3.5 kilograms and he only drops one kilogram, so on that score there is nothing between them. She has drawn wide but a hot pace in the race might negate that factor. A dry track does seem to be a necessity for her ,and given that scenario there is no reason she can’t win. $15 is very much overs in my opinion and she is trained by the best in the business (Chris Waller) right now.
Stratum Star is the ideal historical selection, no doubt whatsoever about that given his four-year-old entire status and Craig Williams is aboard. His last run when second to Boban in the WFA Memsie Stakes is a great pointer to his prospects in this, as he drops in weight and class back to an arguably weaker handicap event. In 13 career starts for Darren Weir he has only missed a place once, so he should be ultra competitive here again.
If there is a negative it is Stratum Star’s winning strike rate of 3 from 17, and his nine other placings suggests he might once again find one or two that are too good for him. On the positive side he is two from five at this distance which is probably his best.
Notably, he has been freshened up for this race off a 28-day break, and has only won once with 14 days or less between runs. A very wide barrier is probably the biggest concern with him, but the $7 early odds is probably a point or so better than I would have expected. Having said that it’s possible he might drift out a little further in the market.
Disposition will be a warm favourite for the race, and deservedly so given his recent first up win, and one-length victory over Stratum Star at level weights this distance last autumn. He has also drawn to advantage unlike some others so it looks his race to lose on paper.
Disposition has five wins and three placings from nine starts in his career thus far so is a bit hard to knock. He is Group 1 placed in Western Australia and his formlines suggest he is classy enough to win, especially with only 54 kilograms. Damien Oliver aboard and although this horse isn’t an entire he clearly looks like the one they all have to beat.
Bull Point and Petrology come under consideration given they are young entires, but the former (who ran third in this race last year) hasn’t won for 15 starts, and the latter hasn’t won in eight starts at this track, or in five starts at this distance. Both need to make considerable improvement on recent efforts and Petrology isn’t assured of a start being the first emergency. A tongue-tie does go on Bull Point so hope springs eternal. Stranger things have happened than him winning this race.
Summary and bet advice
This is a historical preview and I have them rated in this order based on those precedents. I think the betting market is pretty accurate except in the case of Amicus, who should be a lot shorter price in my opinion. My prices are adjacent to the horse.
1. Stratum Star $6
2. Under The Louvre $7
3. Rich Enuff $12
4. Disposition $3.50
5. Amicus $7
I would suggest backing both Stratum Star and Amicus each way, but Disposition is the obvious one to put in all multiples. Trifectas and first fours can be built around him and his price is acceptable at $3.50.
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