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That Nat Fyfe’s name is on everyone’s lips heading into tonight’s Brownlow Medal is hardly surprising. The Fremantle star’s first half of the year was captivating and set a very high bar for the rest of the competition.
In the time since, the door has been slightly opened for challengers to emerge. Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield is among them, West Coast’s Matt Priddis has back-to-back potential and North Melbourne big man Todd Goldstein could win one for the rucks.
It’s far from a case of Fyfe’s medal, no more discussion needed.
But the long-haired midfielder is worthy of being the main discussion, especially considering that if the votes fall the right way in key matches – most of which fall earlier in the season – the medal could be locked up pretty early tonight.
Those key matches won’t be Rounds 2, 4 or 11, where literally everyone – according to the opinions of media, coaches, statisticians and that bloke at the back of the pub – believes Fyfe will poll three votes. A Royal Commission will be needed if he gets less.
You could almost throw Round 7 against the Western Bulldogs into the same category. The lone voices not giving Fyfe maximum votes in that game were the two coaches, who liked Tory Dickson. We can guess the umpires might want to go with a player in the winning team.
We’ll also leave out the matches where he didn’t play, he’s extremely unlikely to poll and a small handful of matches where his ceiling is probably one vote at best. He may still poll from this set of matches, of course.
But it will be the following seven that will have the largest say on whether he gets on the stage this evening.
Round 1 versus Port Adelaide
The night will start with a very intriguing match. To analyse Fyfe’s year, this column looked at pre-Brownlow media guides from both sides of the country (The Sunday Times gave Fyfe 31 votes overall, The Age 24), Champion Data match day ranking points (21 votes) and 3-2-1 altered votes from the AFL Coaches Association (28 votes).
Despite the optimism out west, Kim Hagdorn of The Sunday Times only gave Fyfe one vote in the season opener. The coaches, however, both gave him top marks.
The Dockers won the game and Fyfe had 31 disposals with a goal, but Matthew Pavlich (four goals in a low-ish scoring affair), Danyle Pearce (28 touches, two goals) and David Mundy (29 touches, 10 clearances) also have very legitimate claims. Anything from three votes to zero would be understandable.
Round 5 versus Melbourne
This was a thumping win for Fremantle, but many obviously played a role. The coaches couldn’t split Fyfe and Mundy, but Fyfe wasn’t even top three according to the statisticians.
He had 30 touches, eight clearances and a goal, while Michael Barlow and Clancee Pearce both topped him for touches and Chris Mayne – with 12 tackles and four goals – is a three-vote smokey.
You would suggest this one will either land Fyfe two or three votes, but it would be possible to receive less. Definitely a match to keep an eye on.
Round 6 versus Essendon
It was near enough to a five-goal win for the Dockers, although Brendon Goddard with 35 disposals could certainly steal a vote.
Among Freo players Pavlich again could move in with a four-goal haul, while Lachie Neale had 33 disposals and a goal. By comparison it wasn’t one of Fyfe’s best stat lines but observers were impressed. The Sunday Times says three votes, The Age says one, Champion Data says none.
Just don’t ask the coaches. They had three players tied for top voting in this one – Fyfe, Neale and Pavlich.
Round 8 versus North Melbourne
A big win for the Dockers means the votes will likely be all purple. With 37 disposals, Fyfe would be stiff not to get top billing.
Champion Data found the other two 30-plus ball winners – Barlow and Neale – were ahead of him, while The Age gave him only the two. This suggests there is risk of a teammate getting in the way. You might call it a danger game, perhaps…
Round 9 versus Adelaide
It goes without saying, but this one could well be the most crucial. It’s the actual Danger game, the most famous one-on-one duel of the season. How the umpires viewed it could have a very big say on the night.
Three votes for Fyfe would mean Dangerfield misses out. Three votes for Dangerfield could separate the pair later on. This won’t be the time to jump up and grab a beer from the fridge.
Adding to the drama – not that we really need to jog your memory – a serious case can be mounted either way. Both coaches gave maximum votes to Fyfe, but the Champion Data ranking points pointed to a healthy Dangerfield win.
Dangerfield had 38 disposals, 29 contested, one goal, nine clearances and six inside 50s. Fyfe had 40 disposals, 26 contested, one goal, 14 clearances, 10 inside 50s. He also went at a slightly higher disposal efficiency.
Round 13 versus Collingwood
Freo got home by seven in this one and Fyfe, with 32 disposals, two goals and nine clearances, does appear likely to get the three votes. But the journos are going against the coaches and stat guys on this one.
The Sunday Times is going with two and The Age with one. Neale did win more of the ball with 34 touches, a goal and 14 clearances to his name, making two votes for Fyfe a possibility.
Round 17 versus Richmond
Winning a Brownlow is hard. While it would be a great story for Fyfe to accumulate enough votes by Round 13 to have it in the bag, it’s likely he’ll probably need an extra push along late to fend off those challengers. The four-point win over the Tigers is his best chance for such an outcome.
He had 25 disposals, 10 tackles and a goal in a four-point win, which means this is realistically his last chance for a two or possibly three-vote game.
Champion Data ranking points would suggest he’s bound for three, but there was zero enthusiasm from the coaches and out west Hagdorn awarded him just one vote.
What do you think Roarers? Will Nathan Fyfe claim Charlie in 2015, or will one of these rounds cost him?