Freakish French five-year-old staying mare Treve looks set to claim her third consecutive victory in Europe’s (and probably the world’s) premier 2400m race, the Prix De Le’Arc De Triomphe, late on Sunday evening (AEST).
After winning the race in scintillating fashion by five lengths in 2013 as a three-year-old, it looked unlikely she could repeat the dose off three disappointing defeats in 2014.
It’s history now that she got off the canvas that day to again give her rivals a galloping lesson at the juicy odds of 14-1.
Post-race it was announced that she would be retired, but that decision was overturned in the quest of a third Arc triumph.
Three consecutive wins (two at Group 1 level) might see her start as short as odds-on this year, and on the evidence of her last win just over two weeks ago in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, that market assessment certainly looks warranted.
She fought her jockey Thierry Jarnet for most of the race, and most punters will be aware what normally happens when a horse does that in a long-distance event – it will finish nearer last than first. But not Treve.
The moment the brakes were released around the turn she sprinted like a gazelle from behind the leaders, and put the issue beyond doubt in a couple of strides, streaking away from some high-class rivals. This wasn’t a horse, it was a machine – if there is an equine version of The Terminator, she was it on this day.
And in no way was she gassed – there was still plenty of petrol left in the tank, and given this was her first run since June there seems barely any need to refuel. She should only get fitter and more intimidating come the grand finale on Sunday.
Her female trainer, Criquette Head-Maareck, has described her as a bigger and stronger mare in 2015, and that was certainly evident in the Vermeille.
Six horses have won the Arc twice, but she will be the first to even attempt a third. If she can win she will be the first filly or mare aged five or over to do so since 1937, and the first at that age to win since 2002 (only three since 1975).
On the positive side, a sobering (and perhaps little-known) statistic for her rivals is that she is yet to beaten with less than 32 days between runs (winning four from four). It appears that only bad luck, or an absolutely outstanding performance by a rival can prevent a threepeat by the great mare.
Her trainer is supposedly entering a stablemate in the race who will make the pace, just in case the race isn’t a true staying test that descends into a tactical race between jockeys, something she isn’t keen to see evolve.
French three-year-old colt New Bay is the most likely to trouble her at face value. His age group has more than twice as many wins in this race than older counterparts, and he was quite impressive in the Prix Niel, at the same distance and on the same day that Trieve won the Prix Vermeille. His time was a second slower, but he was in a smaller field with perhaps a more moderate tempo. And he will get 2kg weight relief from the great mare on Sunday.
I like the way he toyed with the runner up Silverwave in that race, because that horse unleashed a whirlwind finish at the top of the straight which would have overwhelmed many a rival. Silverwave ended up 2.5 lengths in arrears of New Bay, with a further two lengths to third. Even more pertinent was the gap of seven lengths to fourth.
Trainer Andre Fabre knows what it takes to win this race, having won it a record seven times since 1987, and all bar one of those have been three-year-olds.
On the negative side, the Prix Niel has not provided an Arc winner since 2006, very odd as it did provide the three preceding winners to that too.
English Derby winner Golden Horn is another fancied three-year-old. His record reads 6-1/7, but he did have his colours lowered by Arabian Queen in the Juddmonte at York. That was an upset of mammoth proportions given she was 50-1, and he started at 4-9 odds. From there Arabian Queen went to the Prix Vermeille and was duly thrashed by Treve to the tune of 11.5 lengths.
Golden Horn since righted the ship with a controversial win in the Irish Champion Stakes, retaining the race after he caused a collision with the Dermot Weld-trained Free Eagle.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of his racetrack career so far is that he is the only horse to have beaten the John Gosden-trained three-year-old entrant Jack Hobbs – significant given Jack has won all four of his other starts by margins of three lengths, 12 lengths, five lengths and 3.5 lengths. The consensus seems to be that he requires soft footing, whereas Golden Horn is quite happy on firm tracks. The latter is likely to prevail in Paris this weekend, given a forecast of fine weather throughout the week.
One horse that would enjoy firm conditions is the underrated Andre Fabre-trained five-year-old Flintshire. He ran a surprise second to Treve in the Arc last year at odds of 20-1, and in seven starts since he has won twice, placed second four times, and ran third on one occasion. One of those wins was in the Hong Kong vase last December.
Flintshire has been a model of consistency on dry tracks ever since his poor Arc showing on wet ground behind Treve in 2013, where he was beaten 18 lengths. It’s hard to see him toppling Treve at her best, but he has finished within two lengths of her on two occasions, and not too many other horses can boast that.
The aforementioned Free Eagle could well be the x-factor horse in the race. The four-year-old looks a genuine improver, and without the interference last start he may well have beaten Golden Horn. That alone means he is some sort of a winning chance in this, and although this High Chaparral stallion is yet to race beyond 2012 metres, his half-sister did win four races at 2400m, the distance of this race. He was making a little ground on the winner at the death last start, which again augurs well for the Arc.
Found is a three-year-old filly trained by Aidan O’Brien yet to miss a place in eight starts (three wins). She was runner-up in the Irish Champions Stakes, when a successful protest was lodged against Free Eagle, who was a little erratic in the straight even before Golden Horn had collided with him. She had to switch from just inside of Free Eagle right back to the rails which impeded her chance of winning the race. She wasn’t making any ground on the winner though over the concluding stages, and just might be a little suspect at 2400m looking at her breeding. Her trainer would certainly be a better judge than I am though.
They would appear to be the main dangers to Treve retaining her crown and rewriting the record books. France has dominated this race, providing 66 of the winners since its inception in 1920. It’s also notable that a filly or mare has won five of the last seven Arcs, and four of those have been French trained.
Jockey Thierry Jarnet is also seeking a record-breaking five wins in the race. The Head family (of which trainer Criquette is a member) has a record of dynastic proportions in the race, having been involved in 11 wins since 1947, as either trainer, jockey, or spouse of trainer.
Everything points to a famous French win in 2015, by perhaps the greatest mile and a half (2400m) staying mare the world of horse racing has ever seen.
Compulsory viewing, even though it is in the very early hours of Monday morning.
1. Treve
2. New Bay
3. Flintshire
4. Golden Horn
Given any rain though (seems unlikely) I would be demoting Flintshire and promoting Jack Hobbs.
Bet suggestion
If you don’t like the even money odds about Treve (not bad for a champion), then why not Flintshire each way at the juicy odds of $21 if the track is firm.
Given a couple of the top three-year-olds have been erratic, and one or two more are not suited by the distance or firm going, then he has every chance of at least running a place.
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