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I’m lost for words. That was the best grand final in my memory, and had me on the edge of my seat. So what made it such a great game and do the stats accurately portray the end result?
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The numbers almost perfectly predicted the end result. Possession was 48 per cent to 52 per cent. At halftime possession was 50-50, with 15 minutes to go possession was 50-50.
The Cowboys finished the game with a flurry of possession and ultimately the Broncos cracked, allowing North Queensland to score the match-levelling try and eventually kick the wining field goal in extra time.
The Broncos, minus Ben Hunt, did not touch the football in golden point, and it cost them dearly.
The possession stats also flow through to completion rates. After 82 minutes the Cowboys had completed 30 of 40 sets, 75 per cent. The Broncos had completed 28 of 36 sets for 78 per cent. Guess where those two extra sets came? The one in which the Cowboys scored the match-tying try, and the only set in overtime.
Perhaps the two most important sets of six of the season.
If we look at run metres, the Cowboys finished on top, 1826 metres to 1698. But they had 22 extra carries and the Broncos made 10.29 metres per carry compared to the Cowboys’ 9.76. This reflects the match as a whole. There were periods in which the Cowboys forwards were on a role and dominated the go forward, then there were periods in which the Broncos dominated up front and Adam Blair and co. picked up plenty of metres. Unsurprisingly the numbers evened out over the full 80 minutes – or 82 as it turned out.
Move further down the stat sheet and the numbers continue to be pretty much equal. Seven offloads to eight. Five line breaks to four. 23 kicks to 24. 654 kick metres to 650. 12 errors to 10. Four penalties to five.
One area in which these two teams were separated, and it was still quite minor, was tackles made and tackles missed. The Broncos made 318 tackles and missed 13, a 96 per cent completion rate. That is almost unheard of in today’s game. Yet they did it three weeks ago against the Cowboys.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, this figure was above 97 per cent with 15 minutes to go, but they missed seven costly tackles in the last 15 minutes.
Completing 291 tackles and missing 20, the Cowboys had a 93 per cent completion rate. Not bad at all, but not as good as Brisbane.
The Cowboys also missed nine tackles in the final 15 minutes, which is surprising given they had slightly more ball, but also understandable given the game’s pace, and the fatigue the players would have been experiencing.
In the end the stats predicted the match to end in a draw, and after 80 minutes it did. Ultimately it came down to the Cowboys delivering a stunning play in the final 10 seconds of regulation and then Thurston slotting a field goal in what may have been his team’s only chance to win the premiership.
As the saying goes, the numbers never lie.
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